LENR+ is so 2011. I think the future is in LENR++ or maybe objective LENR. Nickel and light water are certainly easier to obtain than Pd and heavy water, but you still have to mine nickel, and refine it. LENR++ uses ordinary soil and tap water. Just mix the dirt with water 2:1 by mass in an empty tin (I find Libby's bean cans work best, especially if you eat them beforehand), add a secret catalyst, which I can't disclose, turn it upside down, and hit it with a hammer, and it begins to glow red hot. Pictures at 11.
As for the WL theory, I think Larsen is running a scam. It's too preposterous to imagine that anyone educated could take it seriously. He tricks his intended audience (with dense and colorful slides) by cleverly getting rid of the Coulomb barrier, and somehow they are not in the least bothered by the fact that the energy barrier to making neutrons is 10 times higher. Thieberger calls it going from the frying pan to the fire: http://www.scribd.com/doc/83026935/Cold-Fusion-and-LENR. As he says, the theory is totally beyond any reasonable credibility. There are many implausible parts to the theory, including the ad hoc additions to explain the absence of neutrons or gamma rays. Here's a recent paper showing why the electron capture has negligible probability: Tennfors, Eur. Phys. J. Plus 128 (2013) But the most blatant problem is not an intrinsic part of the theory, but it illustrates that they are either completely clueless (not true of Widom), or they are trying to pull a fast one. It also shows that the referee for their paper was sleeping. As part of the chain of reactions, they propose 4He + n -> 5He. 4He is a highly stable (doubly magic) entity, and therefore adding a neutron actually produces a decrease in average binding energy per nucleon, and is therefore *endothermic*, requiring something close to an MeV to proceed. WL insist the neutrons are cold, so where does the energy come from? Simple kinematics show that the alpha would have to have energy 9 times the Q-value (no more and no less) to conserve both momentum and energy with only one product. Not only would 9 MeV alphas be trivial to detect (from other reactions they would produce, if not directly), but the probability of producing them with the exact energy would be vanishingly small. And while WL do spin a great yarn trying to justify the "heavy" electrons needed to make protons, they don't even try to explain where the energy for this reaction comes from. And yet somehow Larsen has kept his company alive with an angel investor for 6 years. There really is a sucker born every minute. And they seem to be concentrated in the cold fusion business. Rossi, for his part, has yet to provide evidence of anything nuclear, let alone commercial. Anyway, I though his first delivery was back in 2011. On Sat, May 4, 2013 at 10:03 PM, Axil Axil <janap...@gmail.com> wrote: > Joshua Cude > > I wonder if you have been keeping up with the new thinking in LENR. > Specifically, I would like your opinion of the new theories posed by NASA > and Widom-Larsen centered on the polariton. > > These theories are more applicable to the Ni/H reactor (LENR+) rather than > the older LENR theories witch are still the mainstream on this site. > > I believe that LENR is essentially useless. Your opinion on the Rossi and > DGT reactors would be interesting. > > Frankly because LENR is useless and uninteresting, your abuse of LENR is > tedious regardless if LENR is real or not. > > LENR+ is a completely new principle which is coming to perfection in the > short term with the first delivery of a Rossi reactor this last week and > the upcoming demo of the DGT reactor at the NI conference in August. > > > > > On Fri, May 3, 2013 at 4:52 PM, Joshua Cude <joshua.c...@gmail.com> wrote: > >> The recent editorial in Infinite Energy by Hagelstein represents the >> incoherent ramblings of a bitter man who is beginning to realize he has >> wasted 25 years of his career, but is deathly afraid to admit it. He spends >> a lot of time talking about consensus and experiment and evidence and >> theory and destroyed careers and suppression but scarcely raises the issue >> of the *quality* of the evidence. That's cold fusion's problem: the quality >> of the evidence is abysmal -- not better than the evidence for bigfoot, >> alien visits, dowsing, homeopathy and a dozen other pathological sciences. >> And an extraordinary claim *does* require excellent evidence. By not >> facing this issue, and simply ploughing ahead as if the evidence is as good >> as the Wright brothers' Paris flight in 1908, he loses the confidence of >> all but true believers that he is being completely honest and forthright. >> >> >> *1. On consensus* >> >> >> Hagelstein starts out with the science-by-consensus straw man, suggesting >> that consensus "was used in connection with the question of the existence >> of an excess heat effect in the Fleischmann-Pons experiment." >> >> >> Please! No one with any familiarity with the history of science thinks >> consensus defines truth (which I think is what he's suggesting scientists >> believe). If it did, the ptolemaic solar system would still be taught in >> school, and time would still be absolute. Individual qualified scientists >> sufficiently motivated to inspect the evidence make judgements based on >> that evidence, and, since the modern physics revolution, avoid absolute >> certainty, their judgements representing varying degrees of certainty. >> >> >> Of course, consensus judgements do form, and are considered by those >> unqualified or unmotivated to examine the evidence to get some idea of the >> validity of a phenomenon or theory. While consensus does not define truth, >> a consensus of experts is the most likely approximation to the truth. And >> the stronger the consensus, the more confidence it warrants. Sometimes the >> consensus can be very strong, as in the current consensus that the solar >> system is Copernican. I have not made the astronomical measurements to >> prove that it is, although my observations are certainly consistent with >> it, but my confidence in the description comes from the unanimous consensus >> among those who have made or analyzed the necessary measurements. Likewise, >> confidence in the shape of the earth is essentially absolute, and serious >> humans dismiss members of the flat-earth society as deluded, or more likely >> dishonest. >> >> >> So, when it comes to allocating funding, hiring or promoting, or awarding >> prizes or honors, there's really no option but to consult experts in the >> respective field -- essentially to rely on the consensus. It's the worst >> system except for all the others. >> >> >> Hagelstein claims that cold fusion is an example of the Semmelweis >> reflex, in which an idea is rejected because it falls outside the existing >> consensus. That reflex is named after the rejection of Semmelweis's >> (correct) hand-washing theory in 1847, which Hagelstein cites. Then he goes >> on to mock a scientific system in which ideas outside the consensus are >> rejected and the people who propose them are ostracized in a ridiculous >> parody that bears no resemblance at all to the actual practice of science. >> It's the usual way true believers rationalize the rejection of their >> favorite fringe science. But it's truly surprising to see that Hagelstein >> has no more awareness of the reality of science than the many cold fusion >> groupies who populate the internet forums. Of course there is a certain >> inertia in science, and that is probably not a bad thing, even if it >> sometimes has negative consequences, but there's so much wrong about the >> way the phenomenon is applied here: >> >> >> i) Hagelstein fails to mention that in 1989 the announcement of P&F was >> greeted with widespread enthusiasm and optimism both inside and outside the >> scientific mainstream; that Pons got a standing ovation from thousands of >> scientists at an ACS meeting; that scientists all over the world ran to >> their labs to try to reproduce the effect to get in on the new and >> fantastic revolution; that eventual uber-skeptic Douglas Morrison was >> breathlessly optimistic writing: " I feel this subject will become so >> important to society […] the present big power companies will be running >> down their oil and coal power stations while they are building deuterium >> separation plants…" and so on. In fact, people took great pleasure in the >> idea that a couple of chemists could so revolutionize science. Semmelweis >> received no such reaction. Cold fusion was an example of the >> anti-semmelweis reflex, where people delight in bucking the system. It >> wasn't until people started doing experiments and examining the evidence of >> others that skepticism began to dominate. >> >> >> ii) In spite of inertia in science, the most revolutionary ideas in >> physics were accepted immediately. Einstein's photons and Bohr's discrete >> atomic levels and deBroglie's particle waves were all embraced, because >> they fit the data. The most celebrated and honored scientists are the ones >> who revolutionize thought, in direct contradiction to the claims of >> Hagelstein. For example, he writes "If one decides to focus on a question >> in this context that is outside of the body of questions of interest to the >> scientific community, then one must understand that this will lead to an >> exclusion from the scientific community. " So were Einstein, Bohr, and >> deBroglie excluded from the scientific community? No, they were all given >> Nobel prizes. Some exclusion! >> >> >> Now, he might argue that that's ancient history, and the problems he's >> talking about are recent. In fact he writes: "There are no examples of any >> researcher fighting for an area outside of science and winning in modern >> times." I'm not quite sure what he's trying to say here. *His* example was >> from 160 years ago, and that was egregious, but is he now saying it doesn't >> happen any more? Isn't that a good thing? >> >> >> There are certainly still examples of results that fall outside the >> current consensus. Things like dark energy and the accelerating expansion >> of the universe, for example. This was completely contrary to expectations, >> but was accepted rather quickly, so to that extent Hagelstein is right; >> they did not have to fight for the area. It resulted in a Nobel prize in >> 2011, and here's what Perlmutter said in his Nobel speech: "Perhaps the >> only thing better for a scientist than finding the crucial piece of a >> puzzle that completes a picture is finding a piece that doesn't fit at all, >> and tells us that there is a whole new part of the puzzle that we haven't >> even imagined yet and the scene in the puzzle is bigger, richer than we >> ever thought." Science celebrates innovation and discovery; it does not >> suppress it. >> >> >> There are other examples like high temperature superconductivity, also >> unexpected and unexplained but accepted immediately, and also resulting in >> a Nobel prize (in record time). >> >> >> There is also the discovery of quasicrystals by Dan Shechtman. This >> discovery actually did meet considerable resistance, and required Shechtman >> to fight for his area. Pauling said there are no quasi-crystals, only >> qausi-scientists. But it was not like cold fusion in that his results from >> the beginning were published in the best journals, and he began winning >> awards for the work only a few years after the discovery, and in 2011 he >> was also given the Nobel prize. >> >> >> There is also the example of the faster than light neutrinos. Most >> physicists were skeptical, but the idea was certainly given a hearing: >> Here's a scientist quoted in a recent report in the Washington Post: “The >> theorists are now knotted up with conflicting emotions. As much as they >> support Einstein, they’d also love for the new finding to be true. It’d be >> weirdly thrilling. They’d get to rethink everything. If neutrinos violate >> the officially posted cosmic speed limit, the result will be the Full >> Employment Act for Physicists.” >> >> >> So, it's nonsense to suggest that working outside the current consensus >> leads to exclusion. (It can, of course, if the area really has no merit.) >> Scientists crave revolutionary and disruptive results. It's very clear that >> honor, fame, glory, and funding come to those who make major discoveries. >> Not those who add decimal points. The most famous scientists are those who >> revolutionized fields. The buzz words in grant proposals are "new physics" >> or "physics beyond the standard model". And that's why the world (the >> scientific world) went briefly nuts in 1989. Everyone wanted to be part of >> the revolution; no one wanted to be left behind. >> >> >> And the fact that Hagelstein had to go back 160 years for a really >> egregious case of suppression is an indication that things have improved. >> And even in that case, Semmelweis's ideas were vindicated in about 20 >> years, although it was too late for him. I'm not aware of a modern example >> of a bench-top (small-scale) phenomenon that was rejected by the mainstream >> for decades, that proved to be right. And cold fusion is very unlikely to >> change that situation. >> >> >> *2) quality of the evidence* >> >> >> As already mentioned, Hagelstein hardly considers the quality of the >> evidence. However, when he wrote "The current view within the scientific >> community is that these fields [nuclear physics and condensed matter >> physics] have things right, and if that is not reflected in measurements in >> the lab, then the problem is with those doing the experiments. Such a view >> prevailed in 1989…" he admits that the evidence was, at least at the >> beginning easy to dismiss. (What he ignores here, as he did earlier in the >> paper, is that at first, most (or at least much) of mainstream science >> *did* accept their claims and started to look for ways to modify known >> theories.) >> >> >> But then, in the next sentence, he suggests the quality of evidence has >> improved without giving any specific reason to think so: "Such a view >> prevailed in 1989, but now nearly a quarter century later, the situation in >> cold fusion labs is much clearer. There is excess heat, which can be a very >> big effect; it is reproducible in some labs; there are not commensurate >> energetic products; there are many replications; and there are other >> anomalies as well." >> >> >> It's difficult to imagine a more vague testimony in cold fusion's favor. >> Is there any year in the 90s that that could not have been written (or that >> some form of it wasn't)? It as much as admits the opposite of what he >> claims: the situation in cold fusion labs is no clearer now than it ever >> has been. And a little later in the paper, he admits that explicitly when >> he says: "aside from the existence of an excess heat effect, there is very >> little that our community agrees on". >> >> >> Hagelstein makes almost no specific reference to experimental evidence, >> and one example he chooses, if examined, emphasizes its marginal nature. >> >> >> He says that Morrison frequently cited negative results from the KEK >> group, but then rejected their positive result. But in the latest KEK paper >> (1998) , one finds: "Since spring of 1989 we have attempted to confirm the >> so-called cold fusion phenomenon … Until now a burst-like heat release, >> equivalent to 110% of the input electric power, was observed in one >> cell…Further studies as well as reproductions of the anomalies are becoming >> highly essential to understand totally these abnormal phenomena." >> >> >> That's a bit selective, admittedly, since they also claim weak evidence >> for helium and a very low neutron signal "once", but still, 9 years, and >> one positive excess heat cell in a burst-like heat release with a COP of >> 1.1? Is it any wonder, the funding was cancelled? And the authors were >> equivocal too, writing in the summary: "The heat burst in particular must >> be reproduced repeatedly to solve the question whether it is nuclear origin >> or not. It seems Morrison's skepticism was well justified. >> >> >> So, it is not simply the disagreement with established physics that led >> to the rejection of cold fusion. It was (and is) the low quality of the >> evidence, which never seems to get better. Hagelstein would do well to face >> that truth head-on. >> >> >> *3) Career calculus* >> >> >> The end of Hagelstein's essay devolves into a pit of paranoia and >> self-pity. When he asks "how many careers should be destroyed in order to >> achieve whatever goal is proposed as justification? " he has gone off the >> deep end. No one does calculus with anyone's careers. But science is about >> making judgements, and scientists spend a large fraction of their time >> exercising their judgement, both to direct their own efforts, and in the >> service of others as reviewers for journals, hiring and promotion >> committees, granting agencies, and awards organizations. Great scientists >> are venerated by other scientists for their accomplishments. It is only >> fair that their failures, as judged by the same body, count against them. >> >> >> P & F were distinguished scientists precisely because they had impressed >> mainstream science with their work. When mainstream science rejected their >> claims, it was (is) incumbent on the mainstream to express that rejection, >> without regard for the consequences. And anyway, Pons had tenure and >> Fleischmann was retired. They were as protected from career destruction as >> they could be. They went to France voluntarily to take advantage of a >> funding opportunity, so to the extent their careers (or their legacies) >> were "destroyed", it was their own doing. They opened themselves up to >> harsh criticism by not only going public, but doing it in a non-scientific, >> uncharacteristically incautious way. Witness the almost painfully slow and >> tentative announcements of the Higgs boson or of the FTL neutrinos. P&F >> threw caution to the wind. They were adamant and they became angry. I think >> they got what they deserved. >> >> >> What does he expect? That science should pretend to accept claims, even >> if they don't, in order to preserve the careers of the claimants? >> >> >> Hagelstein's conclusion that science should approve of efforts in cold >> fusion to see progress in the field, is based on the premise that cold >> fusion is real. If science rejects the premise, then the conclusion does >> not follow. >> >> >
