It means if it exists, I get paid $10 for every $1 I bet. The implied probability is 1/(11) or ~9%. It it doesn't, I pay out 3 to 1 with an implied probability of 25%
Usually people will average that spread out to get my real probability (assuming I risk the same amounts). That comes to about 17% chance that academia and the world is about to be turned upside down. I'd be interesting in hearing other estimates. On Mon, Jul 8, 2013 at 8:16 PM, Jed Rothwell <[email protected]> wrote: > blaze spinnaker <[email protected]> wrote: > >> >> On the basis that I could arbitrage such a bet 10 ways to sunday. The >> world markets have not priced in something like the eCat on the horizon.. >> > > Perhaps I misunderstand. I don't know betting jargon. Are you saying that > if the thing does exist, you get paid 10 to 1? > > I don't know what "arbitrage" means. > > No doubt world markets have not priced in the eCat or any form of cold > fusion. I suppose this makes it lucrative to win a bet in favor of cold > fusion, but there is hardly any advantage to winning one against it, since > most people think the odds favor that outcome. > > - Jed > >
