Here are some quotes from an essay by Winston Churchill, "Fifty Years
Hence" published in 1932. This is in Churchill's book "Thoughts and
Adventures."

This shows how widely known future prospects are. Clarke described many of
these ideas in "Profiles of the Future" (1963), and I borrowed them again
in "Cold Fusion and the Future," as I said in the introduction.

- Jed

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

. . . Whereas formerly the utmost power that man could guide and control
was a team of horses or a galleyful of slaves . . .  it is today already
possible to control accurately from the bridge of a battle cruiser all the
power of hundreds of thousands of men, or to set off with one finger a mine
capable in an instant of destroying the work of thousands of man-years.
These changes are due to the substitution of molecular energy for muscular
energy, and its direction and control by an elaborate, beautifully
perfected apparatus.

There is no doubt that this evolution will continue at an increasing rate.
We know enough to be sure that the scientific achievements of the next
fifty years will be far greater, more rapid and more surprising, than those
we have already experienced. . . . High authorities tell us that new
sources of power, vastly more important than any we yet know, will surely
be discovered. Nuclear energy is incomparably greater than the molecular
energy which we use today. The coal a man can get in a day can easily do
five hundred times as much work as the man himself. Nuclear energy is at
least one million times more powerful still. If the hydrogen atoms in a
pound of water could be prevailed upon to combine together and form helium,
they would suffice to drive a thousand-horsepower engine for a whole year.
. . . There is no question among scientists that this gigantic source of
energy exists. What is lacking is the match to set the bonfire alight, or
it may be the detonator to cause the dynamite to explode. The Scientists
are looking for this.

The discovery and control of such sources of power would cause changes in
human affairs incomparably greater than those produced by the steam-engine
four generations ago. Schemes of cosmic magnitude would become feasible.
Geography and climate would obey our orders. Fifty thousand tons of water,
the amount displaced by the Berengaria, would, if exploited as described,
suffice to shift Ireland to the middle of the Atlantic. . . .
 Communications and transport by land, water and air would take
unimaginable forms, if, as is in principle possible, we could make an
engine of 600 horse-power, weighing 20 lb and carrying fuel for a thousand
hours in a tank the size of a fountain-pen. Wireless telephones and
television, following naturally upon their present path of development,
would enable their owner to connect up with any room similarly installed,
and hear and take part in the conversation as well as if he put his head in
through the window. The congregation of men in cities would become
superfluous. It would rarely be necessary to call in person on any but the
most intimate friends, but if so, excessively rapid means of communication
would be at hand. There would be no more object in living in the same city
with one's neighbor than there is today in living with him in the same
house. The cities and the countryside would become indistinguishable. Every
home would have its garden and its glade.

Up till recent times the production of food has been the prime struggle of
man. That war is won. . . . But food is at present obtained almost entirely
from the energy of the sunlight. The radiation from the sun produces from
the carbonic acid in the air more or less complicated carbon compounds
which give us our plants and vegetables. We use the latent chemical energy
of these to keep our bodies warm; we convert it into muscular effort. We
employ it in the complicated processes of digestion to repair and replace
the wasted cells of our bodies. Many people, of course, prefer food in what
the vegetarians call 'the second-hand form', i.e. after it has been
digested and converted into meat for us by domestic animals kept for this
purpose. In all these processes, however, ninety-nine parts of the solar
energy are wasted for every part used.

Even without the new sources of power great improvements are probable here.
Microbes, which at present convert the nitrogen of the air into the
proteins by which animals live, will be fostered and made to work under
controlled conditions, just as yeast is now. New strains of microbes will
be developed and made to do a great deal of our chemistry for us. With a
greater knowledge of what are called hormones, i.e. the chemical messengers
in our blood, it will be possible to control growth. We shall escape the
absurdity of growing a whole chicken in order to eat the breast or wing, by
growing these parts separately under a suitable medium. Synthetic food
will, of course, also be used in the future. Nor need the pleasures of the
table be banished. That gloomy Utopia of tabloid meals need never be
invaded. The new foods will from the outset be practically
indistinguishable from the natural products, and any changes will be so
gradual as to escape observation.

If the gigantic new sources of power become available, food will be
produced without recourse to sunlight. Vast cellars in which artificial
radiation is generated may replace the cornfields or potato-patches of the
world. Parks and gardens will cover our pastures and ploughed fields. When
the time comes there will be plenty of room for the cities to spread
themselves again. . . .

Reply via email to