Axil Axil <[email protected]> wrote: > The systems that have developed over the centuries cannot be overturned in > a shocking overnight revolution of disruption. > Oh yes they can. Automobiles wiped out the horse-and-buggy trade in 22 years, between 1908 and 1930. In 1908 the buggy business was still growing by leaps and bounds. By 1930 it was moribund.
Airplanes wiped out the North Atlantic ocean liner business between 1945 and 1955. Microcomputers took away nearly all mainframe and minicomputer business between 1985 and 1990. By 1990, IBM had gone from being the most powerful and profitable computer company to the brink of bankruptcy. It lost more money than any American corporation in history. The big chain bookstores crushed small bookstores in the 1990s. Ten years later, Amazon put them out of business. Meanwhile, Google is making more money than all newspapers *combined*. It has usurped the advertising business. That is why Bezos bought the Washington Post for $250 million. It was worth billions a decade ago. The Boston Globe sold for $70 million, down from $1.1 billion in 1993. Newsweek magazine sold for $1 (one dollar -- no kidding). In commerce, there are no rules. That disruptive strategy will lead to far more harm to the preservation of > the common good and the domestic tranquilly than chaotic replacement of > existing critical infrastructure. > This has never been a problem. No one cares what happened to the ocean liner docks in New York City after 1955. They rotted away. No one noticed. Infrastructure often goes from being critical to being abandoned in a few years. > > The oil fields, refineries, and gas stations must remain open for years > and decades to fill the gas tanks of our current fleet of road transport. > Probably not. Automobiles only last about 9 years on average. Gas stations are always on the edge of bankruptcy. When they lose 10% of their revenue, they will go bankrupt in droves. People with gasoline cars will have no place to refuel them. They will be forced to trade in and buy cold fusion powered cars sooner than they planned. This kind of transition speeds up in the last stages. You would have seen how that works if you had tried to get a minicomputer repaired in 1990. See: http://lenr-canr.org/acrobat/RothwellJthefuturem.pdf - Jed
