UK Ministry of Defence Document Lists Cold Fusion as ‘Credible Strategic Shock’ <http://www.e-catworld.com/2014/02/uk-ministry-of-defence-document-lists-cold-fusion-as-credible-strategic-shock/>
Links to : <https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/33717/GST4_v9_Feb10.pdf> On (presumably HOT fusion) : These economic imperatives will transform energy production and usage, but breakthrough events, such as commercially viable [HOT] nuclear fusion, are unlikely to come to fruition by 2040, and regions rich in natural resources will therefore retain strategic importance. .... A technological breakthrough in the development of [HOT] nuclear fusion may occur. Many incremental steps towards harnessing the energy of nuclear fusion have already been made, but a commercially available fusion reactor is unlikely in the next 30 years. And then, on "Strategic Shocks" : This section considers what some of these high impact, low-probability events could be, while recognising that others may be beyond our experience to anticipate, conceive or understand. It is not a comprehensive list. Acknowledgement that shocks will happen is important. It is recognition that the future cannot be predicted in detail or with certainty. However, they will inevitably influence defence and security in some way, providing a strong argument for versatile and adaptable defence institutions, equipment and personnel to deal with the unexpected challenges they will present. The following is a selection of credible strategic shocks: (Some of the other shocks are low-probability but generally acknowledged as "real" : ) Collapse of a Pivotal State. ... Cure for Ageing. ... New Energy Source. A novel, efficient form of energy generation could be developed that rapidly lowers demand for hydrocarbons. For example, the development of commercially available cold fusion reactors could result in the rapid economic marginalisation of oil-rich states. This loss of status and income in undiversified economies could lead to state-failure and provide opportunities for extremist groups to rise in influence. Collapse of Global Communications. (EMP, Solar flare) External Influences. (Pandemic, asteroid, super-volcano ... )
