So the reading of the situation from my diplomatic contact is that Putin will take Crimea and stop, with one exception:
There will be a natural gas shortage in Kiev this fall. Ukrainians are known for technical improvisation. Their techies are known for flouting international regimes regarding intellectual property. Faced with a cut off of natural gas heat next winter, and the on-going delays in release of cold fusion commercial heaters due to "certification" procedures, one wonders if perhaps Kiev might be ground zero of the cold fusion revolution come next winter.