On 29/01/2010, at 2:38 PM, Dark1 wrote:
Although I believe that sales of hard copies, in newspapers, mags
and books, will decline over time I don't think there will be a
significant drop soon.
It's already happening:
The Great Media Collapse of 2009
http://hightalk.net/2009/03/13/the-great-media-collapse-of-2009/
This is from TIME magazine: “The crisis in journalism has reached
meltdown proportions. It is now possible to contemplate a time when
some major cities will no longer have a newspaper and when magazines
and network-news operations will employ no more than a handful of
reporters.”
This is from Salon: “Journalism as we know it is in crisis. Daily
newspapers are going out of business at an unprecedented rate, and the
survivors are slashing their budgets. Thousands of reporters and
editors have lost their jobs. No print publication is immune,
including the mighty New York Times.”
It actually may be worse than that. Traditional media is on its death
bed – particularly those that rely on the printed page (magazines and
newspapers). But local TV broadcasters are also showing “flu-like
symptoms.” The next several years will completely and fundamentally
alter the media landscape like no other period in history. And as a
result, business as usual for people who rely on the media – from
journalists to PR consultants – simply isn’t possible.
Newspaper Crisis - U.S. newspaper circulation falling faster, report
says
As more readers switched to online news, average weekday circulation
at 379 dailies fell 10.6 percent from April to September from the same
six-month period last year, Reuters reports, citing the U.S. Audit
Bureau of Circulations. Sunday circulation measured at 562 papers
dropped 7.5 percent.
http://knightcenter.utexas.edu/blog/?q=en/taxonomy/term/1638
America's newspapers business is collapsing:
http://www.spiegel.de/international/spiegel/0,1518,657957,00.html
Tribune's collapse rings alarm bells for newspaper industry
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-business/article-23599297-tribunes-collapse-rings-alarm-bells-for-newspaper-industry.do
The iPhone has been very popular and sales are increasing but only a
small proportion of the population owns one. I think the uptake of
the iPad will follow the same pattern.
The iPhone captured 21% of smartphone sales in Australia in 2009 and
smartphones captured 51% of the mobile phone market in Australia in
2009.
http://news.softpedia.com/news/Smartphone-Market-Sees-29-Increase-in-Australia-124186.shtml
http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=985912
It took 9 years for Apple to sell 250 million iPods, but the iPhone OS
platform worldwide has already hit 78 million devices in only 2 and a
half years. iTunes music sales took 8 years to hit 8.5 billion tracks
sold, but iPhone App downloads hit 3 billion in only 1 and a half years.
Perhaps iPhone uptake is not as small as you think.
Also, remember that all of those millions of iPhones and iPod touches
will also be able to access the iBook Store and desktop PC and Mac
users will almost certainly also be able to read iBooks, which means
the 125 million active credit card users on the iTunes Store makes for
a huge installed base already. As such, even if the iPad itself is
not a big seller initially, it has primed the pump.
:-)
On 29/01/2010, at 12:02 PM, Paul Weaver wrote:
I remember from the olden days last century that Martin seemed
always the leader of the WAMUG pack when it came to new technology.
I can see him in my mind's eye now demonstrating System 7. Wow! I
was pretty impressed.
:-D I think I've always wanted one of those slates that Jean Luc
Picard casually chucks on his desk when someone walks into his cabin
on the starship Enterprise. ;-)
-Mart
Ruben
I don't think most people are talking about the iPad replacing
receipts, financial records and all of that sort of paper in an
office (although with credit card readers on iPhones and iPod
touches now available and the low price and ease of use of the iPod
touch and iPad and the growing use of electronic and online
transactions perhaps we will finally see the dawn of the true
paperless office in many businesses).
However, it is newspapers, magazines, text books and other books
etc that I think are most threatened.
You only need to look at how rapidly MP3s have been killing CDs and
how the iTunes Store (and p2p) has killed traditional music shops
to see that there are actually plenty of examples where new tech
has indeed caused a very rapid decline of the old.
The print and publishing industries are already starting to bear
the label of "beleaguered" as one newspaper after another closes up
shop or sacks all their creative talent due to their massive losses
of subscriptions and sales. Online ad-supported web versions have
not been able to pick up the slack and web users have been very
resistant to paying for such content when so much else is free.
The phenomenal successes of the iTunes Music store and the App
Store have given publishers a new hope that they will be able to
monetise their content either thru dedicated iPhone/iPad apps or
thru the new iBook store.
Sure there will be many users who cling to dead trees as change can
be an effort, but the writing is on the wall (uh,,,tablet).
I still remember people shaking their heads at me carrying my
laptop around to play mp3 files way before the iPod came on the
scene and made it cool and easy for joe public to recognise the
advantages of having their whole music library in their pocket.
Well, I have a great sense of déjå vu now having been reading
magazines, ebooks, newspapers and myriad other websites on laptops,
PDAs, older smartphones and now the iPhone for so many years.
Finally the iPod of eBook readers has arrived and may indeed just
herald an iPod-like explosion in eBook use by the average consumer.
Oh and Avatar? Well for the true 3D experience we'll just have to
wait for our 50" 3D-enabled "Minority Report" iPads to be
installed on the walls of our living rooms won't we? ;-)
-Mart
------------------------------------
Martin Hill
mailto:mart_h...@mac.com
homepages: http://web.mac.com/mart_hill
Mb: 0401-103-194 hm: (08)9314-5242
On 29/01/2010, at 8:36 AM, Peter Hinchliffe wrote:
On 28/01/2010, at 12:55 PM, Mark Secker wrote:
I can people using products such as these to replace magazines,
periodicals and factual repository books (dictionaries/
encyclopedias etc)... Our “normal computers, both desktop and
laptop have already been doing this over the last 15 years...
Project Gutenberg and Google books along with ewer devices like
the iPhone & touch and Kindle and now the iPad will accelerate
this...
But... Don’t look at books dying not in our lifetime, probably
not even in the long term future....
There is a very visceral connection with books that no hand held
device will emulate.
I have to agree with your sentiments. Ever since I touched my
first Apple IIe in 1983, people have been predicting a "paperless"
society. Here we are nearly thirty years later and it's not close
to happening. Further back than that, the advent of television was
predicting the death of the movie industry. That hasn't happened
either. Was has happened is that the print industry and the movie
industry have had to change the nature of their products to keep
them relevant. Yes, many of the smaller players will be consumed
by the juggernaut of changing technology, but it's going to be
long, long time before we see the ultimate demise of either of
these industries; and these are only two examples out of many.
Pretty much any activity which relies on having to deal with
business clients or the public (which is pretty much any business)
is going to need access to hardcopy records to back up financial
records, warranty issues, ownership rights, etc, etc. The list is
endless. It doesn't take to much thought to realise that as soon
as the power to an electronic document storage system fails, the
documents cease to exist in any physical sense. We are going to
need paper for the foreseeable future.
I could go on, but I won't, except to say that I had the delight
of watching Avatar in 3D at the Gold Class cinema at Innaloo on
the weekend. In my wildest imagination, I can't see how any
handheld video device could match that experience.
--
Peter Hinchliffe Apwin Computer Services
FileMaker Pro Solutions Developer
Perth, Western Australia
Phone (618) 9332 6482 Mob 0403 064 948
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Mac because I prefer it -- Windows because I have to.
-- The WA Macintosh User Group Mailing List --
Archives - <http://www.wamug.org.au/mailinglist/archives.shtml>
Guidelines - <http://www.wamug.org.au/mailinglist/guidelines.shtml>
Unsubscribe - <mailto:wamug-unsubscr...@wamug.org.au>
-- The WA Macintosh User Group Mailing List --
Archives - <http://www.wamug.org.au/mailinglist/archives.shtml>
Guidelines - <http://www.wamug.org.au/mailinglist/guidelines.shtml>
Unsubscribe - <mailto:wamug-unsubscr...@wamug.org.au>
-- The WA Macintosh User Group Mailing List --
Archives - <http://www.wamug.org.au/mailinglist/archives.shtml>
Guidelines - <http://www.wamug.org.au/mailinglist/guidelines.shtml>
Unsubscribe - <mailto:wamug-unsubscr...@wamug.org.au>
-- The WA Macintosh User Group Mailing List --
Archives - <http://www.wamug.org.au/mailinglist/archives.shtml>
Guidelines - <http://www.wamug.org.au/mailinglist/guidelines.shtml>
Unsubscribe - <mailto:wamug-unsubscr...@wamug.org.au>
