I found this recent article from Horace Dediu of Asymco to be particularly jaw-dropping. Just check out the graph on this web page!
http://www.asymco.com/2011/04/14/first-quarter-pc-forecast-windows-down-2-macipad-up-250/ As a long term Mac enthusiast who slogged on through the dark 90s, I find myself shaking my head in awe more and more these days as Apple does the impossible quarter after quarter. -Mart ------------------- Excerpt: First quarter PC forecast: Windows down 2%, Mac+iPad up 250% Horace Dediu "But the most telling line is the orange line which includes both the Mac and the iPad. In an industry where growth is usually measured in single digits, the iPad business brings growth in three digits. This near tripling of unit sales is symptomatic of fundamental change that cannot be ignored. Although some analysts contend that the iPad is not causal to the decline in other PC sales, teasing out platforms data seems to show a divergent view. The bottom line is that Windows-only computer units are down 2.0% while OSX-based computer units are up 272% (this excludes both the iPhone and iPod touch). Correlation is not causation but tests or surveys where substitution can be proven do exist. For example, a recentsurvey shows that 77% of users reported that their PC usage decreased after getting a tablet. It also showed that 28% considered their iPad as their primary computer. So coupling the sales data with the usage data does point an accusatory finger for the decline on the iPad. In addition, some vendors are being hit harder than others which also hints at where substitution is happening. For example, IDC reports that Acer US unit shipments fell 42% in the first quarter and 16% globally (Gartner’s numbers are less dramatic but in the same direction). Since Acer is known for its netbook computers it’s another telling sign of possible substitution (Acer’s own management has indicated as much.) So the weight of evidence is beginning to be conclusive: the iPad is the new PC. It should be clear by now that the iPad moves computing into new contexts so it does not yet substitute the PC market but extends it and increases consumption. Substitution is happening in low-end grazing type of usage, a place where the PC was ill-fitting anyway. Incumbent vendors might actually be relieved that the lower margin netbook is finally being supplanted and they can concentrate on the higher end. Notes: Analysts like to call the iPad a “media tablet” but the same AdMob surveyshows media consumption to be one of its least popular uses." -- The WA Macintosh User Group Mailing List -- Archives - <http://www.wamug.org.au/mailinglist/archives.shtml> Guidelines - <http://www.wamug.org.au/mailinglist/guidelines.shtml> Unsubscribe - <mailto:[email protected]>
