http://english.aljazeera.net/news/asia-pacific/2008/12/200812125303842114.html
Friday, December 12, 2008
22:40 Mecca time, 19:40 GMT
Large quake 'likely' in Sumatra
A quake-triggered tsunami caused untold loss of life and
property in Aceh in late 2004 [GALLO/GETTY]
A team of US researchers have warned that the Indonesian island of
Sumatra is likely to be hit by an earthquake of catastrophic proportions within
a few decades.
The disaster could be on a scale similar to the magnitude 9.1 undersea
earthquake that struck off northern Sumatra in late 2004, triggering a giant
tsunami across the Indian Ocean and killing 230,000 people across Asia, the
scientists said.
More than 170,000 of those victims were in Aceh on the northwestern tip
of Sumatra.
The prediction came as a 5.8 magnitude undersea quake struck off northern
Sulawesi in the country's east on Friday.
There were no immediate reports of casualties or serious damage.
The region, which sits on one of the world's most geologically-active
tectonic plates known as the Pacific "ring of fire", is prone to earthquakes.
The team of scientists led by Kerry Sieh, of the California Institute of
Technology, in reporting their findings in Friday's edition of the journal
Science, said the next great quake and tsunami in Sumatra were likely to occur
"within the lifetimes of children and young adults living there now".
"We can expect one or more very large west Sumatran earthquakes
within the next two decades"
Kerry Sieh, California Institute of Technology
Sieh, who is the director of the Earth Observatory of Singapore, a part
of the US research team, told Al Jazeera that corals off the Sumatran coast
showed a major earthquake had happened every 200 years since 1300.
"When earthquakes push the seafloor upward, lowering local sea level, the
corals can't grow upward and grow outward instead," he said.
"If previous cycles are a reliable guide we can expect one or more very
large west Sumatran earthquakes ... within the next two decades."
Sieh said while Thailand and Sri Lanka were unlikely to be affected,
people in Sumatra should be prepared.
He also said that Indonesia and the region will be more prepared to face
future earthquakes, although it will be difficult to limit casualties and other
fallout from the disaster.
"If you have a forecast of 10 to 20 years, you can strengthen buildings,
conduct public awareness and educational programmes for rapid evacuation," he
said.
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