http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2009/952/fr1.htm
18 - 24 June 2009 Issue No. 952 Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 Iran's new adversary In Tehran, Mustafa El-Labbad watches as the regime faces what could be its most dangerous foe yet, calls for change that originate not from outside but are being raised on Iranian streets -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Iranians have now turned their attention to the Guardian Council, the body charged with conducting a probe into the complaints of vote rigging filed by presidential candidates Mir-Hussein Mousavi and Mohsen Rezai. A spokesman for the council, which is constitutionally responsible for ascertaining the probity of presidential elections, announced that the council has no intention to nullify Friday's results but will allow partial recount in constituencies where irregularities are alleged to have taken place. It was not just the candidates and their supporters who pressed for a probe. Speaker of parliament Ali Larijani, too, demanded proof, conferring upon the Mousavi cause a useful stamp of moral and legal approval. Larijani, a prominent opponent of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, also censured Minister of Interior Sadeq Mahsouli, holding him responsible for the violent clashes in Tehran and ordering an investigation into the death of 12 students and other civilians in the clashes. In the hope of averting further violence the opposition moved its demonstrations Monday evening from Vali Asr Square, where Ahmadinejad's supporters were rallying, to Vank Square. Eye witnesses report that the two demonstrations passed without incident. As though determined to demonstrate his grip on the situation, President Ahmadinejad travelled to Russia to participate in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. Meanwhile, in Tehran, a huge rally of Ahmadinejad supporters assembled in a venue that had been scheduled to host a pro-Mousavi demonstration. The reformist candidate urged his supporters not to go ahead with their demonstration there in order to avoid clashes, but Ahmadinejad's message was clear: he was warning the Mousavi camp that they would pay a high price for questioning the election results. Touring the Bakhtari tribal areas near Isfahan, Al-Ahram Weekly found solid support for Ahmadinejad. Most of those interviewed admired the incumbent for fighting corruption. There have been unconfirmed reports of the arrest of two prominent reformists, Said Hajarian and Mohamed Ali Abtahi. The former had been a senior official in Iranian intelligence, the latter a director of the president's office under Mohamed Khatami. If the report, cited in the Pakistani English language News International newspaper, is true, the opposition will be deprived of two powerful supporters known for their organisational skills. The Weekly learned from a media source close to the Ahmadinejad camp that fighting corruption, and "purging the institutions of the state", top the Iranian president's agenda for his new term. The remark hints at a showdown with Hashemi Rafsanjani, whom Ahmadinejad accused of corruption during a televised campaign debate on the eve of the polls. His aim is to unify Rafsanjani's political and ideological opponents behind him, further polarising the climate in Iran. According to the same source, the elections were "fair and accurately reflected the popular will", adding that the president's team believes that the huge pro-Ahmadinejad turnout and their refusal to give in to the opposition will eventually sap opposition demonstrations. The opposition is determined not to give their adversaries any legal pretext for clampdowns and detentions. They have kept their demonstrations as peaceful as possible, while simultaneously pressing for the intervention of the constitutional and legal authorities in the hope of gradually gaining an edge over the Ahmadinejad camp. Earlier this week, Mousavi wrote to the Supreme Guide urging him to order a revote on the grounds of "clear irregularities". He repeated his request to the Guardian Council, asking it to investigate specific "irregularities" and recount the votes in certain districts. The council has agreed to recount disputed votes in the election. But it hasn't agreed to annul the results. Observers detect a new thrust in opposition tactics, involving pro-Mousavi spokesman abroad. Speaking from Paris, Iranian filmmaker Mohsen Makhbalbaf announced that Mousavi's supporters would continue demonstrating and appealed to a religious authority to issue a fatwa declaring Ahmadinejad's presidency illegitimate. The Mousavi camp has faced problems in mobilising supporters. SMS messaging has been blocked, as has Mousavi's website. Supporters, as a result, have had to resort to more traditional forms of communication, not always successfully. In one demonstration several days ago protesters chanted "Tomorrow at 5:00 in Vali Asr Square" only to have to shift the venue when a pro-Ahmadinejad demonstration was organised to take place in the same square at the same time. Mousavi supporters say suspicions of electoral rigging are confirmed by official returns which show an almost uniform two-thirds majority in favour of Ahmadinejad, even in Mousavi's home constituency of Azeri, which they claim is impossible. Nor, they say, could Ahmadinejad have won a two- thirds majority in major cities where polls before the elections showed a clear lead for Mousavi. Hoping to stem rising tensions some moderate conservatives have appealed for a national unity government. It is doubtful the proposal will find favour, not least because it will be interpreted as a victory for Mousavi and the opposition camp. It appears as though there is a division of labour in this camp, with Rafsanjani working behind the scenes, canvassing support among the religious authorities, while Mousavi's team mobilises grassroots support to keep up the groundswell of opposition to Ahmadinejad. International reactions, from the UN, the US and Europe, have also had an impact. All have voiced concern over developments triggered by the election results, creating an international climate that cannot work in favour of Ahmadinejad and his camp. Events inside Iran will, in turn, have an impact on the international scene. Ongoing demonstrations are certain to encourage international capitals to escalate the severity of their response, testimony to which is Obama's recent statement: "I'm concerned. It would be wrong for me to be silent." There is a "strategic mind" poised above the fray and now it is facing a dilemma. In spite of all the calculations and engineering the demonstrations have taken it by surprise. They are too large to be quelled by force, which would only propel the protesters to further radicalisation and society to increased polarisation. But nor can it call for a revote, which would be hailed as a victory for the Mousavi camp and perhaps trigger even more dangerous tremors in the regime. Actions will have to be very carefully calibrated over the next few days. The regime in Tehran has weathered some arduous tests. It survived an eight-year long war initiated by Iraq, which was supported by the US. It has withstood some 30 years of economic sanctions and braved the incessant stream of threats from the Bush administration. Five days ago an adversary of a new and unexpected sort has reared its head. This adversary comes from within and it has made its presence powerfully felt in the streets of Iran's major cities. It could be the regime's greatest challenge yet. [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
