http://www.arabnews.com/?page=7§ion=0&article=123703&d=16&m=6&y=2009&pix=opinion.jpg&category=Opinion
Tuesday 16 June 2009 (22 Jumada al-Thani 1430)
This election should worry Iranians more than the West
Adrian Hamilton I The Independent
THIS is not a good moment for Iran. It is certainly not a good time for
those within who hoped for the liberalization of Iranian society. And it is
clearly not a good time for those who looked to a day when a more open-minded
US president might encourage the country to come out of its isolation, stop its
nuclear activities and embrace the world.
But then this is no time either to impose on Iran the wishful thinking of
an outside world that would have the election that they wanted it to be rather
than the unpredictable, complex mix of openness and oppression that Iran's
democracy actually consists of.
Is the latest election part of a pattern in which the liberals are
occasionally allowed their voice but never allowed to threaten the system? It's
what the reformists, and Western observers, certainly believe after an election
in which the results seemed far too of a kind to be believable and the
consequent clampdown on demonstrations too pre-organized to be anything other
than a deliberate act of anti-democratic suppression.
If the efficacy of democracy lies in its ability to incorporate
dissenting opinion by giving it a part in the process, then this election has
clearly failed the test. Whether the counting was actually rigged or not - and
one should remember that Ahmadinejad is not just some Soviet-style party hack
put up for the job but a populist politician with a considerable following of
his own among the poor and hard line - the fact that the reformists got such a
small share of the vote leaves them and their supporters gravely disabused with
the system. There was too much energy in the campaign, too much interest in the
debates for Ayatollah Khamenei to say now that the reforming parties should
quietly go away and accept the "verdict of the majority".
Which is one reason why the forces against liberalization - the
Revolutionary Guard, the pro-Ahmadinejad groupings and the theocratic state -
may have reacted so strongly against the reformers. You don't need to believe
in an anti-democratic coup by the hard-liners to recognize that the powers were
unsettled by the pressures released in this campaign. Just as in China, there
is nothing that the top rulers fear as much as direct clashes of views and
interests.
That does not mean that the world at large is facing a more hostile or a
more implacable country than it did before. Ahmadinejad's continuance as
president will certainly color the rhetoric of relations, while internal
dissensions may delay external initiatives. But the policy toward nuclear
development and the responses to Obama's proferred hand of friendship are not
made by the president of Iran, but the ayatollah and his advisers. Mir Hossein
Mousavi's election might have opened up new possibilities of international
openness, but it would not have changed Iran's nuclear policy any more than the
reverse is true of Ahmadinejad's re-election.
It is within Iran itself that the presidential elections bodes ill.
Ahmadinejad and his supporters are no friends to free speech and tolerance. A
decade ago, the reformers thought they had ushered in a new dawn with Khatami
only to become bitterly disillusioned and introverted. Iran is changing.
Demographics, education, communication are seeing to that. It may prove
different this time. The momentum for change, once released, may be
unstoppable, as it was in Eastern Europe 20 years ago. But we should know it
doesn't happen nearly as quickly or bloodlessly. So once again the West is
caught between its principles and its interests. Its principles may demand it
call foul in Iran. Its interests tell it to hold back and deal with whoever is
in power. It would be wise to do so. All the hopes and expressions of support
from the outside world did no good to the reformers on this occasion. Nor are
they likely to in its aftermath.
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