OrlandoSentinel.com
Some GOP insiders say McCain has botched campaign to win Florida
Jim Stratton
Sentinel Staff Writer
October 19, 2008
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The e-mail was practically giddy.
It came from Florida Democrats and highlighted the lumps John McCain was taking
from leading Republicans.
Bill Kristol said McCain was "flailing around." George Will said it was "too
late" for McCain to "come up with a new persona." And former Wisconsin Gov.
Tommy Thompson, asked whether he was happy with McCain's campaign, replied,
"No. I don't know who is."
Unlike much political propaganda, these comments weren't wrenched out of
context. They accurately represented a growing discontent with the Republican's
presidential campaign.
Nowhere is that more evident than Florida, a state McCain must carry to win the
White House. Troubled by sliding poll numbers, GOP loyalists here -- many of
whom met in Orlando on Saturday for a presidential "victory rally" -- wonder
whether the national campaign has taken the state for granted.
"My question would be, 'What campaign?' I just don't see one," said Bill
Negron, an Orlando member of McCain's regional Hispanic steering committee. "To
me, it looks like people are working hard to ensure that McCain doesn't get
elected."
Those are dangerous words for any candidate. Once doubt infects a campaign --
once the faithful start grumbling -- it can spread like the plague.
"I think Florida's still in play," said GOP ex-U.S. Rep. Lou Frey of Orlando.
"But in this business, perception matters. Perception is reality."
In Florida, John McCain's reality has grown harsher with almost every news
cycle. Polls show this reliably red state trending blue as Barack Obama nurses
a small but steady lead.
Obama has led in 10 of the past 11 polls, while McCain has struggled to gain
traction. The Illinois senator has flooded Florida with more than 300 staffers
and thousands of volunteers. He has opened about 50 offices and, in recent
weeks, outspent McCain 3-to-1 on television advertising.
'It's truly Dukakis-like'
Republicans have been scrambling ever since McCain fumbled his response to the
financial meltdown on Wall Street last month. He was seen as shaky and
ineffective, and his polls numbers began reflecting that.
McCain was telling audiences last week that "we've got 'em just where we want
'em" -- but some GOP strategists see it differently. One who has advised the
McCain organization called it the "most poorly run presidential campaign of the
last 25 years. It's truly Dukakis-like," referring to the hapless 1988 campaign
of Democrat Michael Dukakis.
"They have absolutely no strategy for winning," said the veteran operative, who
did not want to be identified criticizing a candidate he supports. "I see . . .
no rhyme or reason to this campaign or its scheduling or its planning."
Still, McCain has time to close the gap. Florida has supported a Democratic
presidential candidate only three times in the past 40 years, and its most
dependable voting groups -- older residents, veterans -- play to McCain's
strengths. Before the chaos on Wall Street, he led for months in virtually
every state poll.
Former state-party Chairman Al Cardenas said if McCain can pull within 2 or 3
points before Election Day, the GOP get-out-the-vote effort can put him over
the top.
"Be surprised but not shocked," he said, "with a McCain win on November 4."
Asked whether he was satisfied with the McCain operation, Cardenas said, "It's
not fair for me to comment without knowing what's at their disposal."
A co-chair of George W. Bush's 2004 campaign, Cardenas said McCain lacks the
"financial firepower" to match Obama. But, he added, "I wish we were better
organized."
The Bush model
That's a common refrain among McCain's foot soldiers.
Take Bill Bunting, the rock-solid GOP chairman in Pasco County. A Second
Amendment voter, Bunting is the guy candidates call when they want access to
gun shows across the state. He's working now on bringing McCain's running mate,
Sarah Palin, back to Florida to hit one of the shows.
"That'd be huge," he said.
Bunting said Pasco is "hitting on all cylinders" when it comes to volunteer
work. People are phone-banking, knocking on doors and gearing up for early
voting. But, he added, "I don't want to step on anybody's toes, but the Bush
campaign was probably better organized."
Bush's 2004 effort is legendary for its message discipline and attention to
detail. Despite predictions that the race would be tight in Florida, Bush beat
Sen. John Kerry with relative ease. Four years later, McCain has seemed unable
to duplicate that precision.
"Quite frankly, Obama's used the model more successfully," said Jamie Miller, a
former state-party regional director. Miller said volunteers he has spoken with
wonder whether a final push by McCain "may be too little, too late."
Frey said he's confident campaign officials did not take Florida for granted
but wonders whether they "misjudged" what it would take to win this year. For
example, he said, during the past two campaigns, he spent more time raising
money and rallying the GOP troops.
"I haven't really done that much this time," he said. "And it's not that I
haven't offered."
Frey said McCain can win Florida, but "we need a 120-yard Hail Mary pass."
Friday, McCain campaign officials would not discuss concerns raised by Florida
Republicans. In a statement, spokesman Mario Diaz said, "We're focused on the
issues between the two candidates, as are grass-roots supporters across Florida
and nationally."
But Saturday, perhaps to ease concerns the campaign hasn't been doing enough,
the campaign sent an e-mail listing some 15 Florida rallies and other events
taking place between Friday and Monday. Most featured Sen. Joe Lieberman, Sen.
Mel Martinez and McCain's daughter Meghan.
It's the sort of activity Negron and others have been asking about.
Negron said he has heard too few ads and interviews on Hispanic radio stations
and seen too few surrogates coming through Central Florida.
"Who's in charge?" he said. "They're flying this plane, and nobody's in the
cockpit."
Jim Stratton can be reached at 407-420- 5379 or [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Copyright © 2008, Orlando Sentinel
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