Tightening?
The data don't suggest so.
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New ABC/WaPo Tracking Poll: Obama 53 McCain 44
by DemFromCT
Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 03:29:26 PM PDT
New data tonight from a new daily tracking poll from ABC/WaPo. Among all
registered voters, Obama's lead is 10 percentage points, 52 percent to 42
percent, and for likely voters (which we will be using) Obama leads 53-44.
Obama McCain MoE +/- RV/LV
Today
Research 2000: 50 (50) 42 (43) 3 LV
Reuters/Zogby: 50 (48) 44 (45) 2.8 LV
Rasmussen: 50 (51) 46 (45) 2 LV
Diageo/Hotline: 47 (48) 42 (41) 3.4 LV
Battleground: 49 (49) 45 (45) 3.5 LV
Gallup: 52 (50) 41 (42) 2 RV See also the LV I and LV II
numbers
IBD/TIPP: 47 (47) 41 (42) 3.3 LV alternate link
ABC/WaPo: 53 (--) 44 (--) 3 LV
CNN: 51 (53) 46 (45) 3.5 LV Note: O 53 (56) M 43 (42)
RV
D-Corps: 49 (50) 44 (40) 3 LV
If you average all 8 trackers or all 10 polls, you get 50-43. On Friday, it was
49-43. And while I prefer the more sophisticated pollster.com and
fivethirtyeight.commethodology, that's about where the race feels it is. And
while I'm watching the media scramble to come up with scenarios about how
McCain could win, or how the race is tightening (David Gregory wants you to
believe it), I don't see it. Will it happen? Maybe the Powell endorsement
pushes it off a day or two, or maybe the Powell endorsement gains Obama a
point, but I don't see it tightening yet, based on the data. What I see is a
stable 6-8 point race, with McCain at 41-46 and Obama at 47-53.
Gallup:
Gallup's latest three-day rolling average, from Oct. 17-19, spans a weekend
when McCain's running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, drew a huge television
audience and much post-show media coverage for her cameo appearance on NBCs
"Saturday Night Live." Also, on Sunday former Secretary of State and chairman
of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Colin Powell, delivered a strong endorsement
of Obama for president -- calling his candidate "a transformational figure" who
is capable of being "an exceptional president"
The Gallup Poll Daily tracking poll shows no shift in support for the
candidates between Saturday and Sunday to suggest that either of these events
had any immediate impact on voter preferences.
Here's some data from the new ABC/WaPo poll.
Obama continues to benefit from an "enthusiasm gap," but McCain has narrowed
the divide this week. 64 percent of Obama's backers are "very enthusiastic"
about his candidacy; among McCain's, it's 40 percent (up from 31 percent before
the final debate).
Issues - Economy continues to dominate: 53 percent say it's issue No. 1,
followed by health care at 9 percent, Iraq 7 percent, terrorism 6 percent and
energy policy 4 percent. 19 percent said "something else."
Trust on issues
Economy - Obama +16 (55-39), little changed from poll before final debate
Taxes - Obama +10 (52-42), unchanged
"Unexpected major crisis" - Obama +4 (49-45), down slightly from +9 (52-43),
which had been Obama's first lead on the question
Attributes (more here)
Better represents your values - Obama +10 (53-43), his widest advantage of the
campaign.
The context suggests more good news for Obama than McCain (add the 150 million
raised, and Powell's devastating skewering of McCain, as well as the multiple
editorials rejecting Palin), so I'll suggest that we wait for more data before
claiming the race is getting tighter.
Update [2008-10-20 19:9:0 by DemFromCT]::
CBS/NY Times shows Obama really did win the debates.
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