yeah, I know.......nothing is definite until the vote has occured
--- On Wed, 10/22/08, [EMAIL PROTECTED] <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Subject: {Dawgs/Dittos} Re: no cavalry for McCain
To: "Dawgs" <[email protected]>
Date: Wednesday, October 22, 2008, 1:14 PM
Don't believe it. Where there's a will there is a way from the GOP.
Sent via BlackBerry from T-Mobile
From: subana <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Date: Wed, 22 Oct 2008 11:04:55 -0700 (PDT)
To: net buddies<[EMAIL PROTECTED]>; <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>; <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>;
<[email protected]>
Subject: {Dawgs/Dittos} no cavalry for McCain
No cavalry coming for McCain
Jonathan Martin Jonathan Martin – Wed Oct 22, 5:27 am ET
AFP/Getty Images – John McCain, seen here at a rally in Moon Township,
Pennsylvania, has raised the specter of nuclear war …
For the GOP, the cavalry apparently isn’t coming.
Republicans attuned to conservative third-party efforts say that with less than
two weeks to go until Election Day, the prospects for any 11th-hour, anti-Obama
ad campaigns are highly unlikely.
Many in the party, including inside the McCain campaign, have held out hope
that a deep-pocketed benefactor would emerge to bankroll ads in the campaign’s
final days — spots that might, for example, resurrect the most incendiary clips
from the Rev. Jeremiah Wright.
But thanks largely to lack of passion for McCain within the conservative base,
diminished hopes that he can win and a sharp decline in the stock market that
has badly pinched donors’ pockets, veteran Republican operatives say it appears
almost certain that what could be the most damaging line of attack against the
Democratic nominee will be left on the shelf.
“It’s Oct. 21, and if you can’t say it by Oct. 21, then chances are you’re not
going to say anything,” said Chris LaCivita, the strategist behind the Swift
Boat Veterans for Truth in 2004. LaCivita has been working for a new
conservative third-party group this year, the American Issues Project.
That group, known in the political community as AIP, was eyed by some in the
GOP as a potential major player in taking on Obama. It spent nearly $3 million
in key states in August on a tough ad tying the Illinois senator to '60s-era
domestic terrorist William Ayers and promised additional spots in the fall
campaign.
That never happened.
“Donors just weren’t willing to give the money,” explains LaCivita. “They were
hurt badly in the market crash and they were always concerned about how McCain
would react.”
The timing of the financial crisis couldn’t have been worse for Republicans.
When Lehman Brothers went under on Sept. 15, McCain was tied or in the margin
of error in national polls. But when his poll numbers fell along with the stock
market, wealthy conservatives saw little reason to invest their shrunken
holdings on what was far from a sure thing.
“Republican donors, at the end of day, aren’t stupid,” said another
Republican familiar with third-party activities this cycle. “They’re not going
to throw good money after bad.”
And it wasn’t just the economic bad news — McCain did little to help his own
cause.
Two Republican sources involved in third-party groups said the Arizona
senator’s second debate performance in early October, a pivotal moment in the
campaign when he and running mate Sarah Palin had begun to ratchet up their
attacks, was deflating to some donors.
These sources said that after McCain didn’t use the Nashville debate to
aggressively go after Obama, one prominent conservative financier remarked:
“I’m not going to bother investing anymore.”
And donors were always fearful they would be rebuked by their party’s
notoriously unpredictable nominee if they underwrote a major effort.
“McCain never gave a real wink and said, ‘Go ahead, boys,’” explained one
operative close to a third-party group this year.
Another GOP strategist lamented that McCain lacked a core group of rich friends
who were willing to part with their money. Harold Simmons, a Dallas
billionaire, underwrote the entire cost of the initial Ayers ad for AIP — but
his investment wasn’t matched by other wealthy Republicans.
“In 2004, Bush had a cadre of donors who wanted to see him succeed,” said this
source, citing “oil guys.”
“But McCain doesn’t have that, and this is where it really hurts.”
One of those oil guys was T. Boone Pickens. But Pickens, who played a major
role in funding the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, sat out this race,
preferring to spend his money promoting a massive clean energy campaign.
For most of the donor pool for a robust third-party effort, this cycle appears
to have come down to dollars and cents. Many, like Las Vegas casino mogul
Sheldon Adelson, saw their portfolios slide, reducing their interest greatly in
practicing their political hobby on the side.
Adelson had been counted on as the chief benefactor of Freedom’s Watch, a group
originally billed as the right-wing equivalent of MoveOn.org.
But sources say Adelson has pulled the plug on the group, and that it will only
wind up spending $25 million to $30 million this cycle — a far cry from their
original vision.
Freedom’s Watch had to greatly scale back its ambitions, never aired a single
ad in the presidential race and has an uncertain future after the election.
In another contrast with 2004 and the Swift Boat Veterans, there was never
money lined up in advance to fund a serious effort against Obama.
“You’ve got to have a sustained campaign,” said Greg Mueller, a conservative
GOP strategist who did the PR for the Swift Boat operation, noting that it went
up in late-July and stayed on the air. “On either side that never really
materialized. Everybody was sort of nibbling around edges.”
Another operative close to third-party groups said part of the problem was what
didn’t happen after AIP broadcast its Ayers ad in August.
The media coverage of the spot, which begin airing during the Democratic
convention, was far less pointed than had been expected, depriving
conservatives of the sort of echo effect they enjoyed against John F. Kerry in
2004.
“It’s about spurring the mainstream media to do the right thing,” said this
source, meaning to drive both free replays of the ads and subsequent stories
about the underlying charges being made. “The media did cover the fact that,
hey, maybe John Kerry wasn’t completely honest about his service in Vietnam.”
But the Ayers ad got little pickup, overwhelmed by Obama’s stadium acceptance
speech, McCain’s shocking selection of Sarah Palin and then the Republican
convention.
“It’s like an initial stock offering. If it doesn’t make somewhat of a run,
people aren’t as quick to invest in the next one.”
There will be some additional anti-Obama spots aired before Election Day.
Mueller promised another wave of ads for clients targeting the Democrat on
judicial issues and abortion.
And there remains the remote possibility that a wealthy Republican will emerge
to put down some cash in the final days.
“Some guy could wake up and call me and say, ‘Here is $20 million,’” LaCivita
said. “But I don’t see it happening.”
And in a matter of days, that won’t be possible.
An operative working for a third-party group said they were told by Denver
stations — where candidates and outside groups are airing ads in competitive
presidential, senatorial and congressional races — a week ago to get in their
buys because there were not going to be slots available much longer.
“They said, ‘Get in your orders through the election,’” said this source.
“Time is drying up but not gone,” said Evan Tracey, who heads the ad-monitoring
Campaign Media Analysis Group. “For ads to work, they need repetition, so if
anyone is going to get involved, they either need a very strong (and unique)
message or some kind of national footprint to have any impact.”
By law, campaigns are not allowed to coordinate with outside entities. But
McCain aides don’t seem hopeful that help is on the way or interested in
sending any signals.
“I have no idea what’s going on with third-party groups,” is all Rick Davis,
McCain’s campaign manager, would say this week.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20081022/pl_politico/14811
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