McCain's hopes hinge on swing-state shocker
Arizona senator trailing in most polls as Election Day draws near
161 commentsby Ronald J. Hansen - Nov. 2, 2008 12:00 AM
The Arizona Republic
For a nation recently conditioned to nail-biting elections that stretch from
Tuesday into Wednesday and perhaps into December, this year offers something
different.
Two days before the election, John McCain is behind in every national poll and
in polls in nearly every swing state. Barring an unforeseen incident or a
well-hidden trove of voters in key states across the country, the Republican
Arizona senator appears headed for defeat.
While Florida and Ohio offered a dramatic coda to the past two elections,
Pennsylvania and Virginia could end the competitive stage of the race quickly
this year.
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Pennsylvania hasn't gone to a Republican since 1988, and Virginia hasn't gone
to a Democrat since 1964. If Democratic Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois carries
both, as most polling now suggests he will, McCain has no plausible path to the
270 electoral votes needed to win the race. That is because the most
conservative estimate for Obama suggests he has secured at least 238 electoral
votes.
McCain has effectively bet his campaign on winning Pennsylvania. But despite
his many visits there in recent weeks, he remains behind by 12 percentage
points in recent polls.
"I've not seen anybody in the modern history of Pennsylvania coming back from
12 down," said G. Terry Madonna, director of the Center for Politics and Public
Affairs at Franklin and Marshall College, whose polling has tracked
Pennsylvania politics since 1992. "But it's his last stand. I understand why
he's here."
At the same time, McCain neglected Virginia, said Larry Sabato, director of the
Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.
"They've got a particular death wish in Virginia. It's amazing," Sabato said.
"They really didn't think it was going to be competitive."
For Obama, the electoral path is relatively simple: Win the usual Democratic
states and peel off at least one previously Republican state like Ohio.
By contrast, McCain has to preserve nearly every swing state President Bush
carried four years ago, even as many of them now lean to Obama.
Instead of closing the gap in the campaign's climactic final weeks, McCain has
fallen further behind, according to an Arizona Republic analysis of
registration trends, voting histories and polling data compiled by the
nonpartisan Real Clear Politics.
"Obama's going to get way more than 300 electoral votes," Sabato said. "The 'R'
(for Republican) matters. It's a scarlet letter, and McCain is wearing it."
2 that could settle it
McCain has concentrated much of the final two weeks of the campaign on an
effort to wrest Pennsylvania's 21 electoral votes from Democrats.
In 2004, Bush also hoped to compete for Pennsylvania. He lost the state by 2.5
percentage points, in part because Democrats had 500,000 more registered voters
then than Republicans. Today, Democrats there have 1.2 million more registered
voters than the GOP.
Four years ago, Democrat John Kerry led in 18 of the 23 polls taken in
Pennsylvania after mid-October; three showed a tie. This year, Obama has led 53
of the 55 Pennsylvania polls taken since May. Two polls in mid-September were
tied.
Kerry's biggest lead from October to the election was 8 points in one poll.
Obama has led by 10 or more points in 16 polls since the beginning of October.
The McCain campaign notes that Obama lost the state's April primary to Hillary
Clinton.
But Obama still spent weeks campaigning in the state and set up dozens of
offices there. McCain, who had clinched the GOP nomination by early February,
reportedly had three offices there in late July.
Also, Obama's running mate, Joe Biden, is a Pennsylvania native and now
represents neighboring Delaware.
Virginia, meanwhile, is one of the clearest signs of the crumbling GOP
electoral coalition.
Bush carried the state by 8 percentage points in each of his elections.
For months, polls indicated that Virginia would be close this year. McCain led
15 of the 31 polls between May and September, with two ties. But since October,
Obama has led all 22 polls taken in that state.
The change in Virginia's political loyalties lies largely in the rapid growth
of the state, especially in the Washington suburbs in the north. That region
has had a heavy influx of young, white-collar professionals who tend to favor
Obama and Democrats.
Still, three polls last week showed McCain within 4 points in Virginia, and he
and his running mate, Sarah Palin, drew one of their largest crowds there,
23,000.
Florida, Ohio are key
Even if McCain survives winning at least one of those two states, he can't win
without carrying Florida. It is almost impossible for him to win without Ohio,
and no Republican ever has. Obama, however, can win without either.
Florida typifies the all-or-nothing problem McCain now faces.
It is a state that has voted for a Democrat only once since 1980 and, along
with the South, has been regarded as an electoral counterbalance to Democratic
dominance in California and the Northeast.
After lagging in Florida most of the summer, Obama caught McCain in the polls
in mid- September. Recent polls suggest Obama has a narrow lead heading into
Election Day.
This year, Democrats have 650,000 more registered voters in Florida than
Republicans, a margin nearly double what they had in 2000 and 2004. And Blacks
in the conservative northern part of the state may vote in more sizable
numbers, experts say.
In Ohio, McCain led in 20 of the 38 polls taken there between May and
September, with two ties. Since October, Obama has led in 27 of the 33 polls,
with one tie.
Democrats also have a sizable advantage in new voter registrations, though at
least 200,000 are considered suspect by the state's GOP. Still, Democrats won
big in state and congressional elections in 2006.
Recent presidential history suggests McCain could still compete in both states
despite the unfavorable polls.
Others lean blue, too
After that, there are a string of remaining states left, most of which are
trending toward Obama.
In New Hampshire, Obama has led in 26 of the 28 polls since May. The state's
registration figures are nearly even after a surge for Democrats. Still,
McCain's two critical primary wins - he also won the state eight years ago in
his first bid for the White House - and Obama's surprising primary loss there
suggests it is at least possible for McCain to win. It was the only state that
Bush won in 2000 and lost in 2004.
North Carolina is another GOP mainstay that seems on the verge of a shift.
Republicans have carried the state all but once since 1968, and Bush carried it
by 13 points and then 12 points.
Early in this campaign, that trend seemed likely to stick: McCain led all 22
polls taken there between May and mid-September. Near the end of that period,
he had leads of 17 and 20 points in two polls. But after the bailout crisis,
Obama has led in 22 of the 35 polls, with seven ties. McCain's six leads have
been 3 points or less. Only one of Obama's leads was larger than the polls'
margin of error, suggesting the race still is a toss-up.
Colorado has voted Republican in every presidential election but two since
1952. Still, of the 30 polls taken there since September, Obama has led in 28,
with one tie. Voter registration figures in the state, where Democrats held
their convention, also show a shift away from the Republican Party, though the
GOP maintains a slim lead. And Democrats have a string of wins in state and
congressional races going back to 2004.
In Nevada, McCain has seen an early edge melt away as the campaign has
unfolded. Between May and September, McCain led in nine of the 14 polls in that
state. In October, Obama won 13 of the 14 polls, with one tie two weeks ago.
In 2004, Republicans had 4,000 more registered voters than Democrats. Today,
Democrats lead by at least 80,000.
Missouri is regarded as the national bellwether for presidential politics, and
Bush won it by 7 points four years ago. Between April and late September,
McCain led 14 of the 16 polls in that state. Since then, Obama has led 10 of 20
Missouri polls, with one tie. Most areas of the state are solidly Republican,
but in St. Louis, Obama and the Democrats can run up lopsided returns. In late
October, Obama drew 100,000 to a rally in the city, suggesting the state could
be competitive.
Additionally, McCain has effectively conceded Michigan, Minnesota and
Wisconsin, none of which has voted for a Republican for president in 20 years.
The two states that changed from Democratic to Republican in 2004, Iowa and New
Mexico, also appear safe for Obama.
West Virginia is the only competitive state where McCain has consistently led
in the polls.
http://www.azcentral.com/news/election/election08/articles/2008/11/02/20081102swingstates1102.html
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