After much searching I've found the problem.  There seems to have been a 
problem with a GS110EMX switch on my network that was preventing MQTT 
traffic from getting through, but only from IP addresses that were 
originally requested from Linux machines.  I'm not sure how that's 
possible, but that seems to have been the problem.  After a firmware update 
on the switch everything works normally.  

On Tuesday, January 26, 2021 at 5:11:16 PM UTC-7 vince wrote:

> 10.0.2.15 is the default host-only address you get in VirtualBox with the 
> default NAT out to your LAN.   You likely need to expose port 1883 on the 
> outside (192.168.1.x side) so that something can answer the phone, so to 
> speak. 
>
> It would be helpful if you'd draw us a network picture with which 
> systems+VMs are where and what ip addresses are on which interface.
>
> One howto for VirtualBox is at 
> https://www.howtogeek.com/122641/how-to-forward-ports-to-a-virtual-machine-and-use-it-as-a-server/
>  
> - ignore the bridged example and check out how to do the port forwarding in 
> the NAT'd example.   I'm guessing there's a way to do the same thing 
> without a gui on the VM but I never do native VirtualBox any more, I always 
> use Vagrant as a front end and then it's trivial to expose ports through 
> the underlying NAT'd VM.   One example for ubuntu is at 
> https://github.com/vinceskahan/weewx-vagrant/tree/master/pkg/ubuntu2004 
> if you wanted to see the Vagrantfile there.   The provision.sh script will 
> install a Simulator weewx and nginx and expose the web on port 8105.
>
> Short answer is that if you use a default VirtualBox setup then you'll be 
> NAT'ing and you'll need to do port forwarding in VirtualBox so that port 
> 1883 on your host (incoming) gets to port 1883 in the running VM on that 
> host.
>
> I would recommend not doing a bridged VM for security reasons.  Just 
> expose a port and it'll work.  Really.
>
> On Tuesday, January 26, 2021 at 3:39:35 PM UTC-8 Greg Troxel wrote:
>
>>
>> Jeff Beckman <[email protected]> writes: 
>>
>> > I feel like I might not get much sleep this week, this is driving me 
>> nuts. 
>> > I installed linux on a VM on my desktop (the one that has working MQTT 
>> > Explorer) and it worked. The default (oracle virtualbox) was to just 
>> > attach to my NAT, so it got an IP of 10.0.2.15 (which my desktop passes 
>> > through to 192.168.1.185?). Changing it to a bridge adapter, it picked 
>> up 
>> > a DHCP address of 192.168.1.218, and then it did not work. 
>>
>> Unless you really know what you are doing, it seems unlikely that having 
>> 10.0.2.15 and 192.168.1.85 on the same LAN is sensible. Generally each 
>> Ethernet, real or virtual, should have one prefix and at most one DHCP 
>> server. Once there is address confusion, i suspect routing confusion. 
>>
>> My advice is to first completely straighten out your home LANs 
>> addressing plan. 
>>
>>
>> > Here's my full setup: Router is a stand-alone box running pfsense. I 
>> have 
>> > a server that runs freebsd doing virtualization (static, 192.168.1.30). 
>> > Home Assistant is a VM (static, 192.168.1.35). Weewx is a raspberry pi 
>> 2 
>> > (static, 192.168.1.17). Desktop windows machine (DHCP, 192.168.1.185). 
>> > 
>> > I have another unrelated VM running on that free bsd machine for a 
>> > minecraft server (static, 192.168.1.36). Remoting in there gives the 
>> same 
>> > problems trying to publish a message. This machine's network setup is 
>> > almost identical to the Home Assistant machine and it is able to accept 
>> > connections on its minecraft port, 1935 or something. 
>>
>> So where is 10/8? That's a bug, IMHO, and perhaps related, perhaps not. 
>>
>

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