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http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/default.aspx
>From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
FIRST THOUGHTS.
*** Back To Health Care: Anyone who has followed American politics over the
past two years knows that Barack Obama has faced his fair share of challenges.
Hillary Clinton. Jeremiah Wright. John McCain. Sarah Palin. Bill Ayers. Even
the tax issues that helped sink his original HHS pick, Tom Daschle. And almost
every time, he defeated or side-stepped those political dragons through his
oratory and communication skills. But as he returns to Washington (although
remains on a working vacation this week) and after Ted Kennedy was laid to rest
on Saturday, President Obama has found so far that his communication skills --
just how many press conferences and media avails did he have this summer? --
haven't really worked on the tricky issue of health-care reform. His poll
numbers have declined; House Blue Dog Democrats are hesitant; most Republicans
aren't willing to cut any kind of deal; liberals have made the politically
difficult public option the end-all, be-all of reform; and Max Baucus' Senate
Finance Committee still hasn't produced a bill. In short, it was a brutal
summer for the president; no wonder this week is still being called a
"vacation" week by the White House.
*** Getting Something Done: But health care's fate will be decided this fall.
And the smart C.W. is that reform will pass this year, although what that
reform entails is anyone's guess. As John Harwood of CNBC and the New York
Times writes, ".President Obama still has stronger prospects for achieving his
health policy goals than surface impressions of the congressional recess
indicate. He lags behind his own timetable for action, but remains ahead of
presidential predecessors who pursued the same objective. 'They'll get
something done,' predicted former Senator John B. Breaux of Louisiana, a
Democrat. 'It'll be a major step.'" Yet getting something done increasingly
looks like it will happen via reconciliation, which would require a simple
majority in the Senate versus a filibuster-proof majority. And it also looks
like it will get done without much help from Republicans. Chuck Grassley's
recent comments, as well as Mike Enzi's weekend GOP radio address, really don't
suggest that these guys are negotiating in good faith. But ask yourself this
question: Do voters ever remember HOW legislation is passed, or do they simply
remember if policy is enacted or NOT enacted?
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/31/us/politics/31caucus.html?_r=1
*** Filling Kennedy's Seat: Getting something done also might require Democrats
to get that 60th Senate vote back -- to make up for any Democratic defections.
So filling Kennedy's seat quickly has become a priority for Democrats. As we
pointed out last week, with Massachusetts Democrats holding nearly 90% of the
House and Senate seats in its Legislature, they can certainly change the
state's succession law. Here's one other development: Chris Dodd, Kennedy's
closest friend in the Senate, is already talking up the possibility of Vicki
Kennedy, who has earlier suggested that she isn't interested. "Whatever Vicki
wants to do, I'm in her corner," Dodd said on Sunday. "She brings talent and
ability to it, and to fill that spot I think is something the people of
Massachusetts would welcome. We could certainly use her in the Senate."
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2009/08/27/2046413.aspx
*** Naming Names: So expect some public maneuverings this week. Whatever is
changed in the Massachusetts law, it will ONLY affect the ability of the
governor to appoint an INTERIM senator; the special election process will still
happen in early January 2010. While many in Washington are pondering a Kennedy
getting in (either Vicki or Joe), keep an eye on Massachusetts Attorney General
Martha Coakley. She could become the Emily's List candidate and raise a slew of
money fast and could end up being - in a jumbled primary -- the frontrunner,
unless Vicki decides to run. By the way, should the last Kennedy of her
generation -- Jean Kennedy Smith -- be the no-brainer idea for an interim?
*** Turning To Afghanistan: Of course, there are TWO items on the president's
to-do list in September which could have a BIG impact on the trajectory of his
presidency: 1) figuring out a legislative path to victory on health care and 2)
deciding how many -- if any -- troops to send to Afghanistan. Part of the
report is now in, per the BBC: "The report has yet not been published, but
sources say Gen McChrystal sees protecting the Afghan people against the
Taliban as the top priority. The report does not carry a direct call for
increasing troop numbers. 'The situation in Afghanistan is serious, but success
is achievable and demands a revised implementation strategy, commitment and
resolve, and increased unity of effort,' Gen McChrystal said in the assessment.
Copies of the document have been sent to Nato Secretary General Anders Fogh
Rasmussen and US Defence Secretary Robert Gates." Interestingly, how he
proceeds on both health care and Afghanistan is as much a test of the loyalty
of the Democratic base as it is about garnering the approval of the middle.
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/mpapps/pagetools/print/news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/8230017.stm?ad=1
*** What About Bob? One of the ironies of the Creigh Deeds-Bob McDonnell
gubernatorial contest in Virginia is how it's been the Democrat talking about
social issues like abortion, while the Republican has been mostly silent --
which has surprised those who have followed McDonnell's career. But that might
now change after Sunday's Washington Post reported on McDonnell's 1989 graduate
thesis at Pat Robertson's Regent University, in which he called feminism an
enemy to the traditional family; said government policy should benefit married
couples over "cohabitators, homosexuals, or fornicators"; and described a
Supreme Court ruling legalizing contraception for unmarried couples as
"illogical." The Deeds folks believe that highlighting McDonnell's social
issues will help them with the two groups that McDonnell is doing fairly well
with: independents and Northern Virginia voters.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/08/29/AR2009082902434.html?hpid=topnews
*** How Does McDonnell Respond? McDonnell had to know this was coming, right?
He gave this statement to the Post: "Virginians will judge me on my 18-year
record as a legislator and Attorney General and the specific plans I have laid
out for our future -- not on a decades-old academic paper I wrote as a student
during the Reagan era and haven't thought about in years." More: "Like
everybody, my views on many issues have changed as I have gotten older." Back
in 2005, Tim Kaine knew the Republicans were going to seize on his past
opposition to the death penalty. How he responded to the attack -- by invoking
his Catholic faith -- helped him win that gubernatorial contest. Make no
mistake, this Post story is going to polarize the electorate and fire up both
bases, which is precisely what the Deeds camp needs in a state Obama won by
seven percentage points. And while McDonnell's path to victory is about cutting
Deeds' likely advantages in Northern Virginia, this story -- depending on how
Deeds USES it -- is an opportunity for him to consolidate his base up North.
But don't underestimate the ability of this story to fire up McDonnell's base.
And it's a tradition in Virginia for the Washington Post to become a bogeyman,
and this story could bring about some intense Post-bashing by conservatives.
*** The Danger Of Being The Favorite: With this story, and with Jon Corzine
having perhaps his two best weeks (as revelations about Chris Christie's loans
and traffic tickets have surfaced), we are beginning to see the prospect that
Democrats could very well win one of these two gubernatorial races this year --
which would be a significant blow to Republicans who would love to sweep the
two blue state races and use it as a recruiting and fundraising tool for 2010.
Don't get us wrong: The GOP should still be considered favored to win both
contests. But one of the pitfalls of being the favorite is that a loss becomes
MUCH more painful than if you started out as the underdog. Election Day 2009,
by the way, is just a little more than two months from now.
*** Another Controversial Appointment: Charlie Crist's decision on Friday to
appoint his former chief of staff and campaign manager, George LeMieux, to fill
Mel Martinez's Senate seat wasn't that surprising given that Crist is running
for that very seat next year. Nevertheless, the move has allowed Democrats and
primary opponent Marco Rubio to criticize the appointment as cronyism. Of
course, as we've witnessed over the past several months, Democrats have had
their fair share of controversial Senate appointments, too -- Roland Burris in
Illinois, Michael Bennet in Colorado (who might now receive a primary challenge
from Andrew Romanoff), Kirsten Gillibrand in New York, and Ted Kaufman in
Delaware (which might be the most analogous appointment to the LeMieux's and
which makes Democratic attacks on Crist a bit more disingenuous).
*** Wrangling Over Rangel: Also last week, the press reported that powerful
House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Charlie Rangel (D) failed to disclose
up to $500,000 in assets in 2007. Sorry, but how do you defend this? While she
will have A LOT on her plate when Congress comes back next week, how Nancy
Pelosi deals with Rangel and these revelations will be a real test for the
Democratic speaker. Can Rangel stay a credible player in the health-care debate
with this drip-drip hanging over his head?
http://www.bostonherald.com/news/us_politics/view/20090829ny_rep_charles_rangel__didnt_disclose_assets_in_2007/
Countdown to Election Day 2009: 64 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 428 days
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OBAMA AGENDA: More Cheney buckshot
On FOX yesterday, Cheney said of Attorney General Holder's decision to open up
investigations into some CIA detainee abuses, "I think it's a terrible
decision. President Obama made the announcement some weeks ago that this would
not happen, that his administration would not go back and look at or try to
prosecute CIA personnel. ... We had a track record now of eight years of
defending the nation against any further mass casualty attacks from al Qaeda,"
Cheney said. "The approach of the Obama administration should be to come to
those people who were involved in that policy and say, 'How did you do it? What
were the keys to keeping this country safe over that period of time?'"
http://www.thehill.com/homenews/administration/56763-cheney-calls-dems-soft-on-defense
The New York Times: "Mr. Cheney described the inquiry as an 'intensely
partisan, politicized look back at the prior administration' intended to
placate the left wing of the Democratic Party. 'It's clearly a political move,'
he said. 'I mean, there's no other rationale for why they're doing this.'"
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/31/us/politics/31cheney.html?ref=politics
The AP previews Obama's fall lineup. "Back from his first presidential
vacation, a break truncated by the death and remembrance of Sen. Edward M.
Kennedy and the nomination of the Federal Reserve chief to a new term, Obama
settles back into the Oval Office well aware his approval ratings have fallen.
He now must spend heavily from that shrinking fund of political capital -- with
a highly uncertain outcome -- if his vision of a health care overhaul is to
emerge from Congress."
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2009/08/31/analysis_for_obama_the_summer_vacation_is_over/
Good news from the CBO? "Medicare beneficiaries would often have to pay higher
premiums for prescription drug coverage, but many would see their total drug
spending decline, so they would save money as a result of health legislation
moving through the House, the Congressional Budget Office said in a recent
report," the New York Times says.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/31/health/policy/31drug.html?ref=politics
Meanwhile, "Fewer Americans are afraid that they will be unable to pay for
healthcare services and fewer expect to postpone medical treatments due to
costs, according to a Thomson Reuters survey published on Monday. Researchers
found a steady increase in people's confidence about their ability to pay for
healthcare services -- it rose 12 percent between March and July this year."
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2009/08/31/americans_more_confident_on_healthcare_costs_poll/
Over the weekend, "Al Gore and Bill Clinton -- ghosts of Democratic victories
past who are increasingly showing up to buck up the faithful as President Obama
goes through his first real trials in office -- were the star guests at the
Tennessee Democratic Party's annual Jackson Day dinner."
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0809/26580.html#ixzz0Pl9GQRbH
The Washington Post writes that environmental groups have gotten out-worked so
far in the debate over the energy legislation. "It seems that environmentalists
are struggling in a fight they have spent years setting up. They are making
slow progress adapting a movement built for other goals -- building alarm over
climate change, encouraging people to "green" their lives -- into a political
hammer, pushing a complex proposal the last mile through a skeptical Senate."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/08/30/AR2009083002606.html?hpid=topnews
And. Joe Biden was inducted into the Little League Hall of Fame on Sunday.
"Biden isn't the first vice president inducted into the hall. Dan Quayle was
inducted in 1990. Other inductees include President George W. Bush, Gen. Peter
Pace, New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, former Sen. Bill Bradley (D-N.J.),
columnist George Will, actor Kevin Costner and rock star Bruce Springsteen."
http://www.thehill.com/homenews/administration/56793-scrappy-kid-joe-biden-joins-little-league-hall-of-fame
CONGRESS: Succeeding Kennedy
The Boston Globe writes, "With Massachusetts having paid its final respects to
Senator Edward M. Kennedy, the politics of succession begins in earnest this
week -- candidates will emerge, a race will take shape, and the Kennedy clan
will have to reveal whether it wants to keep the seat in the family. All eyes
now are on Joseph P. Kennedy II, the former US representative, with family
members and political allies expecting him to make a decision very shortly on
whether to enter the Democratic primary. No other Kennedy of his generation
with the political stature to step into the role has signaled interest in it,
according to Democratic insiders and people close to the family. And Victoria
Reggie Kennedy, the senator's widow, who many expected would be a likely
candidate, so far has indicated she is not interested in succeeding her
husband, those close her have said."
More: "Joe Kennedy's decision is likely to determine the plans of the dean of
the Massachusetts congressional delegation, US Representative Edward J. Markey,
who is telling associates he is seriously considering running, and US
Representative Michael Capuano, a Somerville Democrat who is also thinking of
joining the primary race. Both are Kennedy loyalists and would not run against
a member of the family, according to people familiar with their thinking, who
spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal political calculations."
Other possibilities: Attorney General Martha Coakley, Rep. Stephen F. Lynch,
Edward Kennedy Jr. Republicans: Kerry Healey, state Sen. Scott Brown, and
former U.S. attorney Michael Sullivan.
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2009/08/31/in_or_out_joe_kennedy_will_have_impact_on_potential_senate_field/
"Senators Orrin G. Hatch, Republican of Utah, and Chris Dodd, Democrat of
Connecticut, said on CNN's 'State of the Union' that they could support
Kennedy's widow, Victoria Reggie Kennedy, as an interim senator if
Massachusetts lawmakers allow a temporary appointment before a special
election."
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2009/08/31/kennedy_widow_is_urged_as_appointee/
"At the graveside service at Arlington National Cemetery for Senator Edward M.
Kennedy, Theodore Cardinal McCarrick, archbishop emeritus of Washington, D.C.
and a family friend, read portions of the letter that President Obama delivered
on Kennedy's behalf to the Pope last month and portions of the pope's reply."
http://www.boston.com/news/politics/politicalintelligence/2009/08/priest_makes_ke.html
"Massachusetts lawmakers are beginning to rally behind a plan that would allow
for a special appointment to fill the late Sen. Edward Kennedy's (D) seat,
allowing the Democratic caucus to maintain a critical vote margin as the Senate
takes up major health care and energy reform. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid
(D-Nev.) is pushing for an appointment as well, citing the upper chamber's busy
workload."
http://www.thehill.com/homenews/senate/56743-momentum-builds-for-appointment
A Wall St. tax? "The nation's largest labor union and some allied Democrats are
pushing a new tax that would hit big investment firms such as Goldman Sachs
reaping billions of dollars in profits while the rest of the economy sputters.
The AFL-CIO, one of the Democratic Party's most powerful allies, would like to
assess a small tax -- about a tenth of a percent -- on every stock transaction.
Small and medium-sized investors would hardly notice such a tax, but major
trading firms, such as Goldman, which reported $3.44 billion in profits during
the second quarter of 2009, may see this as a significant threat to their
profits."
http://www.thehill.com/homenews/house/56789-afl-cio-dems-push-new-wall-street-tax
Reuters: "U.S. Representative Barney Frank, chairman of the House Financial
Services Committee, hopes to craft a compromise bill with lawmakers who want to
open Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions to audits. A bill sponsored by
Texas Republican Representative Ron Paul that would allow the Government
Accountability Office, a congressional watchdog agency, to audit Fed
interest-rate decisions has won the cosponsorship of more than half of the
House."
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2009/08/31/frank_seeks_compromise_on_fed_audit_bill/
"With four appointed Senators seated and at least one, if not two more, on the
way, a growing number of unelected officials are going to have a significant
voice in major legislation in the 111th Congress. But even though six appointed
Senators is nowhere near the most to ever serve together, it would be the
largest number in more than 40 years. Six appointed Senators would be the most
since 1961-1962, when seven appointed Senators served in the 87th Congress.
Thirteen appointed Senators served in the 79th Congress, spanning 1945-1946,
which is the largest number, according to the Senate Historical Office. Ten
appointed Senators served in both the 65th (1917-1918) and 83rd (1953-1954)
Congresses. In the first half of the 20th century, appointed Senators were much
more common, with an average of six from 1913 through 1954. Between the six
appointed Senators in the 87th Congress and this 111th Congress, the average
number of appointed Senators in a Congress has been two. Part of the reason is
that the chamber is growing younger." http://www.rollcall.com/news/38020-1.html
GOP WATCH: Mac-Attack on the road
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Sen. John McCain will travel to
Kansas City today for a health-care discussion at Children's Mercy Hospital.
The event is hosted by Sen. Kit Bond. This will be the second McConnell-McCain
health-reform event after visiting Houston's M.D. Anderson earlier this summer
with Sen. John Cornyn. Later this week, McConnell and McCain will also travel
to North Carolina and Florida.
Al Hunt writes about Tim Pawlenty. "He doesn't excite Republican passions like
Sarah Palin, or bring the intellectual range of Newt Gingrich, the down-home
humor of Mike Huckabee or the resources of Mitt Romney. He also brings none of
their baggage, has a consistently conservative record, presents his views in a
less-confrontational and more measured way, and has succeeded in a Democratic
state." http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/31/us/31iht-letter.html
"Former Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge said Monday people "are
hyperventilating" about his assertion that politics played a role in talk of
raising the terror alert before the 2004 elections. 'A consensus was reached.
We didn't go up. The process worked,' Ridge said in an interview on ABC's 'Good
Morning America.' The former Pennsylvania governor, however, did not take back
the statement in his new book, 'The Test of Our Times: America Under Siege,'
that he worried at the time that politics was a consideration in discussions
among high-level officials about whether to raise the color-coded terror alert
to a higher level. He acknowledged there was a lively debate about it, but
repeated that it was not done, and thus not an issue."
http://breakingnews.nypost.com/dynamic/stories/U/US_RIDGE_TERROR_ALERT?SITE=NYNYP&SECTION=POLITICS&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2009-08-31-07-50-07
2009/2010: LeMieux, Rammell, T-Paw
FLORIDA: Charlie Crist has decided to appoint his former chief of staff, George
LeMieux, to replace Sen. Mel Martinez in the U.S. Senate. "At 40 years old
LeMieux will become the youngest Senator in the chamber when he is sworn in. A
Crist loyalist, LeMieux ran the governor's 2006 campaign and emerged last week
as a top contender for the appointment out of a field that eventually included
10 names." http://www.rollcall.com/news/38019-1.html
IDAHO: IDAHO: The New York Daily News: "Rex Rammell, a long-shot candidate
slated to run against incumbent C.L. 'Butch' Otter in the May 2010 GOP primary
[in Idaho], made the comment at a Republican rally Tuesday in Twin Falls where
talk turned to the state's planned wolf hunt, for which hunters must purchase
an $11.50 wolf tag. The hunt is due to begin on Tuesday. When an audience
member shouted a question about 'Obama tags,' Rammell responded, 'The Obama
tags? We'd buy some of those.'" He told AP: "What I would say to all my
Democrat Idahoans: Take a deep breath and relax," he said. "We're not going to
go out and hunt Obama." He also told the Times-News newspaper, "I would never
support him being assassinated."
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/2009/08/28/2009-08-28_idaho_republican_governor_hopeful_rex_rammell_makes_obama_tags_joke_about_huntin.html#ixzz0PlGzjfGp
NEW JERSEY: Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty will campaign for New Jersey Republican
gubernatorial nominee Chris Christie next week. Pawlenty, who is thought to be
considering running for president in 2012, said he will base his decision in
part on whether "the message that I'm conveying, both here and nationally, [is]
making a difference."
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2009/08/minnesota_gov_tim_pawlenty_wil.html#more
and
http://www.startribune.com/politics/state/55954237.html?elr=KArksLckD8EQDUoaEyqyP4O:DW3ckUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aUUJ
SOUTH CAROLINA: To mark 500 days until the term for embattled Gov. Mark Sanford
(R), Dwight Drake -- one of the Democrats running for South Carolina governor
in 2010 - has produced a Web video entitled "(500) Days of Sanford," a spoof of
the indie film "(500) Days of Summer."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmKiq0B_8-s
VIRGINIA: Twenty years after Republican gubernatorial nominee wrote a thesis on
"harmful social impact of working women, feminists and nontraditional families"
and other social issues, the paper has resurfaced as a political rallying point
for both McDonnell's supporters and opponents. In the thesis, McDonnell wrote,
"Every level of government should statutorily and procedurally prefer married
couples over cohabitators, homosexuals or fornicators. The cost of sin should
fall on the sinner, not the taxpayer." Democratic nominee Creigh Deeds called
the paper "a window into archconservative values that belie the moderate image
McDonnell has tried to portray." Gary C. Byler, the Republican chairman of a
Virginia congressional district, said, "if this is the best they can come up
with it just shows how desperate the Democrats are." Larry Sabato, political
science director at the University of Virginia, said the impact of the thesis
on both nominees' campaigns is still unclear. "It's a piece of the mosaic that
is created prior to Election Day," Sabato said. "The only question is how big a
piece, and that's up to the candidates."
http://hamptonroads.com/2009/08/mcdonnells-thesis-adds-new-twist-campaign
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