Dear all, for those who missed the sunday vision article, please read it.
Thanks
Christine
Roads, power key to West Nile votes
Passengers stuck on a bad road in Yumbe, while the main road from Arua to
Karuma is now tarmack
IN the fourth part of the Sunday Vision series on
factors likely to influence voting patterns in next year’s polls, Joshua Kato
looks at the political
fortunes of the parties in the West Nile region
Politics is like war. There is the controlled territory and contested
territory. Going by past elections, West Nile was largely opposition turf.
Today the ruling National Resistance Movement supporters claim that is in the
past. According to them, the region is now contested and this improves the
party’s electoral fortunes in the next polls.
The 2011 poll is the country’s test on how firmly it is steadying on the
democracy path.
To the voters, other paths are equally important. For the people of West Nile,
their resentment of the NRM and President Yoweri Museveni stems from the poor
infrastructure. With the Kampala road now tarmac, it’s yet to be seen what
excuses they give in 2011.
“It is one of the smoothest roads anywhere in the country,” a Gaagaa Bus
official says as the bus branches off after Karuma Falls. “It was dust and more
dust,” the official says.
The construction of the road has since reduced travel hours from Arua to
Kampala from two days to six hours. The smooth road and peace also means that
travellers can safely travel at night. It has now become a norm for buses to
ply the route at night, which is convenient to traders.
Though this road was ready by the 2006 election, it did not give Museveni
political capital against his main challenger, Forum for Democratic Change
(FDC) leader, Col. Kizza Besigye.
Historical perspective
West Nile became a significant player in the governance of Uganda after the
1971 coup when Idi Amin captured power. Amin, a son of the region, carried
hundreds of his tribesmen on board. Many joined the army and others filled
administrative positions in government.
Among his top soldiers in the early days was Gen. Mustafa Adrisi, who rose to
become Vice-President.
When Amin was overthrown in 1979, remnants of his forces, led by the likes of
Moses Ali (now Lt. General) and Isaac Lumago, waged war against the new Uganda
National Liberation Front (UNLF) government, under different armed groups.
Some of them remained active even after Museveni captured power in 1986. The
groups included West Nile Bank Front headed by Juma Oris and Uganda National
Rescue Front II under the leadership of Ali Bamuze.
Current political outlook
The current parliamentary seats give a different picture of the political
landscape showing NRM with the majority. Of the 20 MPs, the ruling party has
eight followed by FDC with six. The rest are taken by independents (four) and
Uganda People’s Congress (two). Of the seven district leaders in the region,
six are NRM, while only one is FDC.
The districts are Adjumani, Arua, Koboko, Moyo, Nebbi, Yumbe and the recently
created Zombo. Despite having more MPs and district leaders in the region,
NRM’s presidential candidate did not perform well in the last election.
In 2006 elections, Besigye beat Museveni in all districts except one.
In Adjumani, Museveni scored 11,277 to Besigye’s 19,919. In Arua he scored
67,436 to Besigye’s 103,133.
It’s in Koboko that Museveni got 26,842, while Besigye got 2,694.
In Nebbi Museveni got 54,208, while Besigye got 56,663.
Museveni again lost in Moyo with 11,610, with Besigye getting 14,901 and in
Yumbe with 19,832 to Besigye’s 24,297.
The question is, why didn’t the MPs and local leaders’ dominance translate into
the Presidential win for Museveni and the NRM? The local people say the MPs and
local leaders concentrated on their campaigns fearing the mention of Museveni
would cost them votes.
The forecast for 2011 is that the NRM and Museveni will do better this time
round.
The April by-elections in Padyere, in which the NRM candidate, Pascal Odoch,
easily won, are one of the pointers. On the ground there is a shift of opinion
towards Museveni.
“Many of us now think voting for Museveni may not be bad after all,” one
resident of Arua admits.
Many people in the region now proudly wear NRM T-shirts. This was not so
several years ago.
The failure of the FDC to amicably solve a conflict involving two of their
leading party officials in the region seems to be working against the
opposition’s prospects in West Nile.
FDC MPs Alex Onzima (Maracha) and Kasiano Wadri (Terego) have been battling
over the creation of a new district since 2006. There is the pull and push to
have the district headquarters located in Terego. But Nyadiri has been
allegedly favoured for Onzima’s coziness with NRM top officials. This in a way
has culminated in his expulsion from FDC.
Onzima’s supporters feel alienated from the party by the FDC. “But Onzima is
still popular here. We support him because he is fighting for a cause that will
benefit all of us,” says Moses Drawuzu.
In Arua Municipality, FDC MP Akbar Godi is facing charges of killing his wife,
which is not only working against him, but the party too.
Social, economic outlook
In the green, floating suds on the shores of the River Nile in Obongi, a naked
12-year-old boy pushes his hook deeper into the water. He anticipates
something. He jerks, bites his teeth and pulls the line out of the water
suddenly. He has caught a snake-like fish, which is a delicacy in the West Nile
region. It wriggles for breath as he pulls it out of the water. He subdues it
by hitting it with a small piece of wood.
“I was given this hook when I was a very young boy by my parents. I now know
how to fish for myself,” he says.
This is what the greater West Nile region needs — a hook so that people trap
fish for themselves. West Nile, called so because it is located west of the
River Nile, is naturally gifted.
There are around two million people in seven districts.
The region is good for agriculture and livestock like goats and cattle,
especially in parts of Moyo and Adjumani.
There is also fish farming and tobacco, which is a major cash crop. And the
region borders southern Sudan, which is a ready market.
Given the fact that West Nile shares a big chunk of the great river, tourism
offers a very big potential. But the region has no industries.
The population lacks confidence partly due to the war which raged from the
1980s to the mid 1990s. This was waged by remnants of Amin’s forces.
“War retarded development in this area,” says Ausi Abiriga of Yumbe. In Moyo,
areas of Obongi County, especially Aliba Sub-county were also affected by the
war.
Residents fled to Sudan from 1979 to 1980 and only returned after the NRA
captured power in 1986. Even then, a new rebel group, the Uganda National
Rescue Front II, continued operating in the area, fighting against the new
NRA/M regime. It was not until a peace deal was struck in 2001 that this
fighting finally ended.
“The youth emerged out of the war with a dependency attitude. They think that
they have to be given handouts,” explains Ali Mawa of Yumbe.
In most of the towns, like Arua, Yumbe and Koboko, youth spend most of their
time playing cards and arguing about the English Premier League. A few of them
ride numberless or Congo registered bikes in the towns. And fist fights are
common.
When you pass through most parts of West Nile, it is clear that there are signs
of development. But most of these efforts are hindered by one thing.
“We do not have electricity to utilise our potential. We need power in West
Nile if the region is to develop,” says Arua MP John Arumadri.
Because there is no power, large industries have shied away and there are
hardly any large employers.
This also means that taxes for local revenue are low. “Over 95% of our budgets
are funded by the central government because we do not have a revenue base,”
laments Peter Iku Dolo, LC5 chairman, Moyo District. This is the same with
Koboko, Yumbe, Nebbi and Adjumani.
For some years now, Arua, the main town in West Nile, has been using a
generator. But it is now in darkness after the company operating the generator
stopped. The same generator also served Nebbi town.
Even then, the generator only supplied power for less than eight hours a day.
This project was under the West Nile Rural Electrification Company (WENRECO).
“The company was supposed to supply power to Arua and Nebbi for at least 18
hours, but it failed because they had no money,” Arumadri says. The power
company switched off their power in the week starting May 4, citing mechanical
problems.
Moyo town is supplied by a smaller generator which works for four hours
everyday.
One of the problems it faces is the rising cost of fuel. By last week, WENRECO
was set to supply power again. Without power, even small scale jobs, for
example saloons do not operate and yet could employ a lot of people.
“If we get regular power, everything will fall into line, there is no doubt
about it,” Arua LC5 chairman Ferua Andama says.
President Yoweri Museveni is often reminded about the power problem whenever he
visits the area. And he has promised to deal with it. The Government looks at
various options to solve the problem.
Before he was overthrown in 1979, Idi Amin had started on an ambitious plan to
take power to West Nile from Jinja. This option is still open but there are
also other options.
The viable options include the construction of smaller dams. For several years,
a dam has been under construction at Nyagak, but it is bogged by probelms.
For now, most people are using solar energy as an alternative. Most sub-county
headquarters have a solar set to run the computers, while business people use
them to charge phones at a fee.
In Moyo and Adjumani, many sub-counties use solar power, donated under the
European Development Fund/Support to the Decentralisation Programme (SDP).
Transport has gradually improved in recent years, after the tarmacking of the
Karuma-Arua road.
There are also daily air flights to Arua town.
Transport within West Nile is, however, still difficult. For example, within
Moyo District, many areas are regularly cut off whenever it rains.
The ferry crossings at both Laropi and Panyimur are not sufficient.
“Sometimes we spend three days travelling from Obongi to Moyo town because of
bad roads,” says Geoffrey Viciri, a sub-county chief. Many people talked to are
waiting for the Government to improve the ferry service and will reward it with
votes.
Just like the young boy at Obongi was given a hook by his father, reliable
power supply and better internal transport are the hooks that the West Nile
region needs in order to achieve its potential.
Voting patterns
Arua is the best hunting ground for the opposition in the West Nile region. The
district was until a few years ago the largest in West Nile and the defacto
capital of the region. Yumbe was split off followed by Koboko and now Maracha,
its size has drastically reduced. But it remains the centre of the region.
Arua, especially the municipality, is well known for its cross-border trade
with the DR Congo.
In 2001, Besigye won in all but one of the then seven counties of Arua.
Museveni only won in Vurra. In 2006, however, Besigye won in all the counties
in Arua. The FDC also took most of the MP seats, apart from Vurra that was won
by Simon Ejua (NRM).
The FDC MPs in Arua include Akbar Godi (Arua Municipality), Kasiano Wadri
(Terego), John Arumadri (Madi-Okollo) and the Woman MP, Christine Bako Abia.
In 2006, Alex Onzima (Maracha) was also elected as an FDC. He has since been
expelled from the party. It is also interesting to note that all FDC MPs in
West Nile come from Arua.
NRM can take advantage of the fallout created in Maracha and make inroads in
Arua. Overall, the opposition seems to be entrenched in Arua.
Nebbi
This is the NRM’s enclave. Nebbi is the district that Museveni last won in
2001. In 2006, the NRM got three out of four MPs. These are Catherine Mavenjina
(Woman), Simon D’Ujanga (Okoro), Fred Jachan (Jonam). The only constituency
that fell to UPC was Padyere. But after David Ringe died, the seat was taken by
NRM’s Pascal Odoch.
During a visit to West Nile recently, NRM Secretary General Amama Mbabazi said
that the recapturing of the Padyere seat is a spring board to capturing the
whole of West Nile.
Moyo
Moyo is located to the northeast of West Nile. For many years, it was
politically dominated by Lt. Gen. Moses Ali, until he lost his seat in 2006.
Ali was defeated, so was Amasi Pataki in Obongi. Other than the district
chairman who is NRM, the counties of Obongi, which is now a new district is
under the firm arms of FDC`s Hassan Fungaroo.
Fungaroo is strategically located in Obongi, that there is no way he can be
missed. His house, located near the shores of River Nile is meticulously
painted in FDC colors. Even if he does not talk, the house talks for him. For
many years, the people of Obongi were crying for a district status. During
President Museveni’s visit to the area in 2008, he promised to give them
district status.
“Now that he has given us a district, we can think about voting for him,” says
Naome Ireku in Obongi. Ireku says that the other promise of a ferry to dock at
Obongi should also be fulfilled before the elections.
Koboko
Before he died, Francis Ayume was the leading politician in Koboko District.
The district was carved out of Arua in 2005. It borders the Sudan and DRC.
Koboko has been voting for Besigye through the last two elections in 2001 and
2006. Being a border district, most of the people’s grievances are linked to
activities related to border trade.
“They are harassing us,” says Ausi Amadi in Koboko. He also says that the road
network must be improved. “For example, we need tarmac from Arua to Koboko and
to the border,” he says. Politically, the MP, James Baba, is still fairly
popular in the district.
Published on: Saturday, 22nd May, 2010
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