GoranSMilovanovic added a comment.

  @Jan_Dittrich
  
  **Please disregard all previous findings**. The following is based on:
  
  - the definition of editor inactivity in T282563#7124389 
<https://phabricator.wikimedia.org/T282563#7124389>,
  - and the two important corrections in the analytics code;
    - one to guard against what @awight has observed on regex in 
T282563#7110253 <https://phabricator.wikimedia.org/T282563#7110253>,
    - and the other - even more important one - that I had to introduce to fix 
a fatal flow in the existing analysis (having to do with considering only 
months w. > 0 edits at all: my incorrect assumption about the structure of the 
ETL result set).
  
  We consider only editors that were active at some point in time.
  
  > How high is the likelihood to become an active editor again?
  
  Here we consider those users who have had at least one period of inactivity 
(5 months w/o edits): the probability of editor reactivation is `0.208437`:
  
  - around 21% of users who were active at least at some point in time and had 
at least one period of inactivity became active editors again at some point in 
time.
  
  The estimate of the probability of reactivation is based on `358,823` 
editors. Out of this `358,823` editors, `338,058` (~ 94%) had eventually left 
Wikidata, while `20,765` (~ 6%) are still with us. 
  The definition of **"has left Wikidata"** used here is the following one: the 
editor currently has five or more months of inactivity.
  
  > What is the relation between past length of participation in the Wikidata 
community and the likelihood to stop participating?
  
  Again, we define the **"past length of participation"** as the total number 
of active months since registration, and **"to stop participating"** as **"has 
left Wikidata"** (see above): the editor currently has five or more months of 
inactivity.
  
  @Jan_Dittrich And here goes a beautiful illustration of the Lindy Effect for 
Wikidata editing (the data labels referring to how many editors are 
represented):
  
  F34501266: WikidataUserRetention_NEW_LindyEffect.png 
<https://phabricator.wikimedia.org/F34501266>

TASK DETAIL
  https://phabricator.wikimedia.org/T282563

EMAIL PREFERENCES
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To: GoranSMilovanovic
Cc: MGerlach, awight, WMDE-leszek, Manuel, Lydia_Pintscher, Aklapper, 
Jan_Dittrich, Invadibot, maantietaja, Akuckartz, Nandana, Lahi, Gq86, 
GoranSMilovanovic, QZanden, LawExplorer, _jensen, rosalieper, Scott_WUaS, 
Wikidata-bugs, aude, Mbch331
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