On 16/02/2011, Carcharoth <[email protected]> wrote: > I came across this interesting essay: > > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Modelling_Wikipedia_extended_growth > > It tries to project to the year 2025!
And fails spectacularly. The extended growth model seems pretty inaccurate, very over-optimistic: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Enwikipediagrowthcomparison.PNG That graph hasn't been updated recently, but other graphs show that the Gompertz model is still tracking about as well as any simple model could do: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:EnwikipediagrowthGom.PNG although even that is looking perhaps very slightly pessimistic, but it's too early to be absolutely sure. But we can certainly I think, say with some justification, that the extended growth model is significantly off the mark. > Carcharoth -- -Ian Woollard _______________________________________________ WikiEN-l mailing list [email protected] To unsubscribe from this mailing list, visit: https://lists.wikimedia.org/mailman/listinfo/wikien-l
