Da conclusão:

[...] "We have noticed the decreasing amount of successful admin
elections and have formulated two hypotheses that could explain this
phenomenon. Hypothesis A stated that new admins are elected on the
basis of acquaintance of the voter and candidate. If this would be a
valid explanation, we could conclude that the community of admins is
becoming increasingly closed, which would be detrimental to the
sustainable development of the Wikipedia.

Hypothesis B stated that new admins are elected on the basis of
similarity of experience in editing various topics of the voter and
candidate. Since voters are other active admins whose experience
increases with time, their thresholds of accepting a candidate are
likely to increase (as has been observed from the simple statistics of
RfA votings)."

Tom

-- 
Everton Zanella Alvarenga (also Tom)
"A life spent making mistakes is not only more honorable, but more
useful than a life spent doing nothing."

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