Lars Aronsson wrote:
> Platonides wrote:
> > And many don't even perform one edit. As I don't believe so many people
> > create them just to change their preferences, it is a mistery for me why
> > do they do so.
> 
> Becoming an active wikipedian is a process in many
> steps, each involving a large amount of hesitation.
> Does this article really need improvement? Can I
> fix it? Should I fix it? Do I know how to edit? Do I
> have the time right now? Should I register? After
> having improved the text, should I really press
> save, or should I just quit and forget about it?
> 
> Maybe we have a million readers, and only 10% think
> the article needs improvement, only 10% of them
> think they could fix it, etc. We are losing people
> in every step of hesitation from reader to active
> contributor. It is really irrelevant in which step
> we lose them. We may have a million readers and
> we get a hundred contributors. These might be
> 100 out of 1,000 registered users or 100 out of
> 10,000 who thought about registering, or 100 out
> of 5,000 who went half-way through registration.
> The constant is 100 and the other number is
> quite arbitrary. Any statistic based on that
> arbitrary number is bound to be bad math.

There's good math to be had for the digging.

Can you envision a leaky pipeline starting with the mass of
readers' first visits to WP and the terminus at long-term
editors. Something along the lines of
https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Kaplan%E2%80%93Meier_estimator
seems appropriate, maybe someone can pick a more optimistic
analogy. At each new obstacle the cohort shrinks. If it was
possible to interest someone with statistical training to
assemble actual data, I imagine it would be useful and
entertaining. It might have to be collected prospectively.
Would wiki-research-l be a better forum for this?
-- 
Charles Polisher

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