A lot can change in a year especially with a mass-market disruptive technology like VoIP. In just the last 3 months of 2005 900,000 new VoIP subs were added. Earlier this year the total household VoIP market was thought to be 4.5 million subs, but is expected to be 7.9 million by years end. Most of this increase is to due to the cable companies, which now exceed 50% market share. Interestingly, cable companies have access to 9% of all households and 7% percent of RBOC households. Couple this with RBOCs currently losing ~5% of their POTS lines each year and the picture gets pretty clear.

Worldwide things are quite a bit different where 40% of all minutes passing through class 5 switches are at some point handled as VoIP.

-Matt

Travis Johnson wrote:

Hi,

I will have to find the article I read about a year ago regarding VoIP and POTS and cellular. It shows that even with the number of people that are switching, it is still VERY small when compared with the number that still have POTS and will continue to keep their land lines.

In our area, the big switch is not to VoIP but rather to cell phones. There are many products on the market now that allow you to plug a cell phone into your normal phone wiring in the home and then port your number to the cell phone. Thus, you save money, have a phone you can take with you no matter where you go, have 911 services, etc.

Does anyone know the percentages of different phone services in Taiwan, Japan, or otherwise? I thought I read somewhere that one of those countries was over 75% cell phone.

Travis
Microserv

Matt Liotta wrote:

There are major LECs using VoIP internally while providing analog service to their customers. Therefore, it is quite possible you have had conversations over a VoIP network using your POTS lines without even knowing it. Further, the percentage likelihood that you will have such a phone call in the future is increasing steadily.

VoIP is a disruptive technology that will forever change the landscape of telecom. In a short number of years, VoIP will be more heavily used than POTS by consumers. In fact, many people speculate that the RBOCs have projections that tell them when to switch from POTS to Voice over DSL from a revenue/expense standpoint. They are ready to do it now.

-Matt

Travis Johnson wrote:

You may have the very best VoIP system with the least latency, highest call quality, etc.... but it still is not the same as a POTS line.

The real test is when you call someone from a VoIP line to a cell phone... that's when you get echo, delay and noise to the point that you end up talking over each other, etc. I have been on the cell phone end of MANY calls like this, from MANY different companies around the US. Every single one of them was using VoIP (from many different providers). Having a "shared" pipe (VoIP) will just never be the same as a "dedicated" pipe (POTS). :)

Granted, VoIP may be good enough for 99% of the people, but personally I guess I fall into the 1%. ;)

Travis
Microserv

Matt Liotta wrote:


On Jun 19, 2006, at 7:27 PM, Travis Johnson wrote:

I don't believe there is any real money in it either... cell phones will be the choice 5-10 years from now. VoIP is the bridge to get there. Of course, I'm talking residential users... business users are a little different... although we will never switch our business lines (12 of them) to VoIP. I've never heard a VoIP call that sounded as good as a POTS line... :)

Call us then. Or better yet, send us a fax, which is the real test of VoIP quality. VoIP will never be circuit switched, but it is good enough to the point that without testing equipment an end user can't tell the difference. Except of course the reduction in cost and the increase in functionality afforded by VoIP.

-Matt






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