Even worse than the Friday night phenomenon is say Saturdays in the
fall. Layne Sisk had some pretty nasty things to say about the IPTV
solution used in Utah on football saturdays and how the usage would
honestly bring the fiber ring to it knees.
Dawn DiPietro wrote:
Below is Ken's latest Blog post, still a work in progress, since
George brought it up he felt it was appropriate.
According to the A.C. Nielsen Co., the average American watches more than
4 hours of TV each day.
Now, I would be the first to admit that there is an unknown percentage of
time that the TV is on but not being watched in any given family but even
if we assume that percentage is close to 50% (which I would guess is
we can see that from the estimated five minutes per day the average
American spent watching internet video (according to the comScore study)
we could very well see a jump of some nearly 50 times that amount once a
full palette of subject matter is presented on the Internet for
And which of society's groups of will be eager to take advantage of free
Video On Demand? Why the people who can't afford to pay for these high
dollar services or would prefer not to.
The next question is, what kind of bandwidth will it take to deliver VoD
per user? Let me qualify this question by laying some of the assumptions
that will need to be addressed in this answer.
First off, on the average Friday night, at 6:00PM, more than 50% of
American households have more than one TV set on (read as more than one
continuous video stream playing) and I would suggest this trend will
continue, if not increase as the net-centric services improve.
Secondly, if we are talking about IPTV bandwidth needs, we need to
forecast that a 1.25Mbps sustained stream is necessary for one stream. If
we move into the realm of high definition we are now looking at a rate of
14Mbps (uncompressed) with perhaps a chance of delivering reasonable
quality using a 4Mbps sustained stream - per video is use. That does not
take into account any bandwidth for telephone or Internet access, should
these services be required.
What we can see is that any network that is only capable of delivering
1Mbps speeds (as measured in real throughput) is now obsolete - we simply
refuse to admit it yet.
Of course, we can still continue to bury our heads in the sand and wait
for the inevitable crisis.
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