I'm not sure it is an issue of Clearwire "over-evaluation".
I personally think it was just a publicity stunt to bring in some new cash
last quarter, for both companies.
Clearwire and Sprint each own 2.5G spectrum, and its equally worth what it
is worth.
The real issue is whether someone is willing to pay what its worth, to just
deliver WiMax, and share the profits?
Companies realize that sometimes they are better off just concentrating on
what they do best, and take 100% of the profit on the Business model that
they have proven to be Solid.
Sprint's mobile division has a clear business model that makes sense, around
the EVDO 3G/4G mobile data products. Sprint's business broadband division
has a clear business model around Fiber Optics. Sprint's Long distance
division has a clear model for selling bits nation/world wide.
But when it comes to WiMax, do they have a clear model that will benefit
them?
Its all about EGO and public perception, and Tier1 carriers do not like
someone else getting the Spotlight, its just not good for Investor
Relations.
Personally, I believe it will help WISPs more, for Clearwire to succeed. It
will likely set a record of high evaluation for the industry.
Public perception will be... If Clearwire can't do it, and isn't worth it,
how can a WISP be?
I'll make an unpopular statement that I feel is just plain reality, and the
reason Telcos are not likely going to be real competition for WISPs or vice
versa.
The Wireless business is for scavengers and bottom feeders. Any way you
slice it, for a WELL FUNDED Mammoth company, Fiber Optic will ALWAYS be a
better business proposition for the PROVIDER, whether talking about business
or residential. And for Mobility, 3G and 4G already delivers enough
capacity for MOST applications, that are guaranteed success business models
for mobility. Sprint knows this, which is why there is Internal turmoil
within Sprint, on whether to WiMax or Not. This press release is NOT an
announcement of failure and bad news, it is an announcement that Sprint has
common sense, and back to reality.
As far as the Fixed Wireless business and WISPs.... Our industry has many
clear business models. And our technology doesn't need to be the "BEST",
for us to have successful business models. "WiMax or Equivellent" is an
enabler technology, to enable small entrants to enter the game and play
ball. In comparison to Sprint market share, its a tiny tiny playing field.
But thats OK, in comparison we are tiny tiny providers. There are many
advantages to being small. And small things still have great potential
proportionaly. On my playing field, the big boys don't have an advantage
over me. I (along with WISPs nationwide) will continue to kick Telcos'
butt, on our Fields. My customers will continue to get better value, and
WISP will continue to succeed. If Telcos are smart, they'll never play ball
on our fields, there is just no need to play a game that they will loose at.
Telcos have a much larger playing field, where they are guaranteed to shine.
As far as Clearwire, and same goes for companies like Fiber Tower.... If
they are smart, they will start buying smart WISPs. The mentality that they
will come and just take the customers and take the market is just not a
reality. There are just to many reasons that Subscribers have selected their
local WISP. As long as WISPs are in the game, we are a threat to them being
recognized as the definitive "wireless" provider, and their business model.
WISPs in the market will devalue the market, because WISPs sell cheap
because they can. So in return Clearwires or equivellent also undersell at
a loss, to be competitive. The only way to beat WISPs, is to buy their
customers, and convert them, and take the savy ambitious WISP executives out
of the game. A telco is much more likely to buy a Clearwire, if Clearwire
is in markets where they have extinguished other competition. Because then
they have a market for sale, not just a provider. WISPs are still considered
a problem, that telcos are figuring out how to deal with. They are afraid
WISPs case studies will become the venue for next generation CLEC/ISPs. If
Clearwire killed the threat by buying them, and transferred the leverage to
Clearwire, at the same time as increasing market share, it would help their
evaluation. The truth is... a company like Clearwire would IMMEDIATELY
obtain cost savings through the aquisitions, such as via consolidating
backhauls, and be able to raise prices. Sure I recognize that Clearwire
Egos have likely not realized this yet, but give it time. The value of
WISPs is not just their customers, its their relationships, whether it be
with customers or real estate/property owners.
Mark my words.... In two years, Clearwire will either be bankrupt, or they
will be one of the major consolidators, BUYING up local WISPs.
Just my 2 cents.
Tom DeReggi
RapidDSL & Wireless, Inc
IntAirNet- Fixed Wireless Broadband
----- Original Message -----
From: "Brad Belton" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: "'WISPA General List'" <wireless@wispa.org>
Sent: Friday, November 09, 2007 9:20 AM
Subject: RE: [WISPA] Sprint and Clearwire scrap WiMax deal
Wow, already down 30%+ this morning. Hate to say I told ya so (not your
Frank, but the list in general) on the over-valuation of Clearwire, but I
told ya so.
Best,
Brad
-----Original Message-----
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
Behalf Of Frank Muto
Sent: Thursday, November 08, 2007 11:36 PM
To: WISPA General List
Subject: [WISPA] Sprint and Clearwire scrap WiMax deal
Sprint and Clearwire scrapped a pact to build a nationwide high-speed
wireless network based on WiMax.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119457536653487513.html
The two companies signed a letter of intent in July to pursue the
partnership, which they hoped to finalize within 60 days.
But the complexities of the transaction and the departure last month of
Gary
Forsee as Sprint's chief executive officer made
it too difficult to reach a final pact, the people say.
The unraveling of the preliminary agreement is a blow to Clearwire. The
company, founded by cellphone pioneer Craig McCaw,
has staked its future on WiMax, a longer-range cousin of Wi-Fi that can
theoretically provide wireless broadband access from
laptops and cellphones at speeds comparable to what cable operators
provide.
Frank Muto
President
FSM Marketing Group, Inc
www.secureemailplus.com
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