I concur with Steve Stroh take on this: http://www.bwianews.com/2007/11/good-day-bwia-4.html#more
We will see Sprint buying Clearwire and Craig McCaw as CEO of Sprint-Nextel-Xohm-Clearwire Gino A. Villarini [EMAIL PROTECTED] Aeronet Wireless Broadband Corp. tel 787.273.4143 fax 787.273.4145 -----Original Message----- From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Brad Belton Sent: Friday, November 09, 2007 2:37 PM To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]; 'WISPA General List' Subject: RE: [WISPA] Sprint and Clearwire scrap WiMax deal I'm certainly not "jumping for joy" about ClearWire's poor news and performance. I agree with Tom that nearly any wireless failure in the news does not bode well for wireless operators. My point from the beginning was ClearWire is over-valued and therefore the only direction it can take is downward. I believe they are over-valued for one primary reason; they are targeting the mobile user market. This market is clearly dominated by the cellular providers and anyone entering that market is doomed, IMO. Why would anyone opt for a mobile service that only works in a fraction of the area that a competing service offers? Considering the existing mobile service widely available today is performing well and only getting better, why would anyone want to enter this market? Crazy... Best, Brad -----Original Message----- From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Todd Easterling Sent: Friday, November 09, 2007 12:19 PM To: 'WISPA General List' Subject: RE: [WISPA] Sprint and Clearwire scrap WiMax deal For the record, everyone in the WISP business (manufacturers and WISPs) I talk to about the collapse of the Sprint-Clearwire deal is jumping for joy about the news. I am too. WISPs do not need more competition, and a "national WISP" like clearwire which added 49,000 new subs in the quarter ended September 30, 2007 is clearly competition. Their market coverage increased from 34 markets last quarter to 48. Yes, it is unlikely that a satisfied WISP customer would switch to Clearwire. But what we are talking about is competition for new customers. And anything that slows down a "national WISP" that picked up 49,000 new subs in one quarter is good for the small business-WISPs and the smaller manufacturers that supply those WISPs. Also, Clearwire isn't likely, in my opinion, to care about buying most small WISPs. What would they be buying? The technology wouldn't be compatible, from billing to the wireless transmission system to the frequency bands. They could just as easily buy the names and addresses for homes in an small-WISP area and send sales/marketing incentives out. If Clearwire went away tomorrow, small WISPs, WISP distributors and WISP product manufacturers would be far better off. Todd ________________________________________ Todd Easterling VP, Corporate Development & Marketing Solectek Corporation www.SOLECTEK.com -----Original Message----- From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Tom DeReggi Sent: Friday, November 09, 2007 8:55 AM To: WISPA General List Subject: Re: [WISPA] Sprint and Clearwire scrap WiMax deal I'm not sure it is an issue of Clearwire "over-evaluation". I personally think it was just a publicity stunt to bring in some new cash last quarter, for both companies. Clearwire and Sprint each own 2.5G spectrum, and its equally worth what it is worth. The real issue is whether someone is willing to pay what its worth, to just deliver WiMax, and share the profits? Companies realize that sometimes they are better off just concentrating on what they do best, and take 100% of the profit on the Business model that they have proven to be Solid. Sprint's mobile division has a clear business model that makes sense, around the EVDO 3G/4G mobile data products. Sprint's business broadband division has a clear business model around Fiber Optics. Sprint's Long distance division has a clear model for selling bits nation/world wide. But when it comes to WiMax, do they have a clear model that will benefit them? Its all about EGO and public perception, and Tier1 carriers do not like someone else getting the Spotlight, its just not good for Investor Relations. Personally, I believe it will help WISPs more, for Clearwire to succeed. It will likely set a record of high evaluation for the industry. Public perception will be... If Clearwire can't do it, and isn't worth it, how can a WISP be? I'll make an unpopular statement that I feel is just plain reality, and the reason Telcos are not likely going to be real competition for WISPs or vice versa. The Wireless business is for scavengers and bottom feeders. Any way you slice it, for a WELL FUNDED Mammoth company, Fiber Optic will ALWAYS be a better business proposition for the PROVIDER, whether talking about business or residential. And for Mobility, 3G and 4G already delivers enough capacity for MOST applications, that are guaranteed success business models for mobility. Sprint knows this, which is why there is Internal turmoil within Sprint, on whether to WiMax or Not. This press release is NOT an announcement of failure and bad news, it is an announcement that Sprint has common sense, and back to reality. As far as the Fixed Wireless business and WISPs.... Our industry has many clear business models. And our technology doesn't need to be the "BEST", for us to have successful business models. "WiMax or Equivellent" is an enabler technology, to enable small entrants to enter the game and play ball. In comparison to Sprint market share, its a tiny tiny playing field. But thats OK, in comparison we are tiny tiny providers. There are many advantages to being small. And small things still have great potential proportionaly. On my playing field, the big boys don't have an advantage over me. I (along with WISPs nationwide) will continue to kick Telcos' butt, on our Fields. My customers will continue to get better value, and WISP will continue to succeed. If Telcos are smart, they'll never play ball on our fields, there is just no need to play a game that they will loose at. Telcos have a much larger playing field, where they are guaranteed to shine. As far as Clearwire, and same goes for companies like Fiber Tower.... If they are smart, they will start buying smart WISPs. The mentality that they will come and just take the customers and take the market is just not a reality. There are just to many reasons that Subscribers have selected their local WISP. As long as WISPs are in the game, we are a threat to them being recognized as the definitive "wireless" provider, and their business model. WISPs in the market will devalue the market, because WISPs sell cheap because they can. So in return Clearwires or equivellent also undersell at a loss, to be competitive. The only way to beat WISPs, is to buy their customers, and convert them, and take the savy ambitious WISP executives out of the game. A telco is much more likely to buy a Clearwire, if Clearwire is in markets where they have extinguished other competition. Because then they have a market for sale, not just a provider. WISPs are still considered a problem, that telcos are figuring out how to deal with. They are afraid WISPs case studies will become the venue for next generation CLEC/ISPs. If Clearwire killed the threat by buying them, and transferred the leverage to Clearwire, at the same time as increasing market share, it would help their evaluation. The truth is... a company like Clearwire would IMMEDIATELY obtain cost savings through the aquisitions, such as via consolidating backhauls, and be able to raise prices. Sure I recognize that Clearwire Egos have likely not realized this yet, but give it time. The value of WISPs is not just their customers, its their relationships, whether it be with customers or real estate/property owners. Mark my words.... In two years, Clearwire will either be bankrupt, or they will be one of the major consolidators, BUYING up local WISPs. Just my 2 cents. Tom DeReggi RapidDSL & Wireless, Inc IntAirNet- Fixed Wireless Broadband ----- Original Message ----- From: "Brad Belton" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: "'WISPA General List'" <wireless@wispa.org> Sent: Friday, November 09, 2007 9:20 AM Subject: RE: [WISPA] Sprint and Clearwire scrap WiMax deal > Wow, already down 30%+ this morning. Hate to say I told ya so (not your > Frank, but the list in general) on the over-valuation of Clearwire, but I > told ya so. > > Best, > > > Brad > > > > -----Original Message----- > From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On > Behalf Of Frank Muto > Sent: Thursday, November 08, 2007 11:36 PM > To: WISPA General List > Subject: [WISPA] Sprint and Clearwire scrap WiMax deal > > Sprint and Clearwire scrapped a pact to build a nationwide high-speed > wireless network based on WiMax. > > http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119457536653487513.html > > The two companies signed a letter of intent in July to pursue the > partnership, which they hoped to finalize within 60 days. > But the complexities of the transaction and the departure last month of > Gary > Forsee as Sprint's chief executive officer made > it too difficult to reach a final pact, the people say. > The unraveling of the preliminary agreement is a blow to Clearwire. The > company, founded by cellphone pioneer Craig McCaw, > has staked its future on WiMax, a longer-range cousin of Wi-Fi that can > theoretically provide wireless broadband access from > laptops and cellphones at speeds comparable to what cable operators > provide. > > > > Frank Muto > President > FSM Marketing Group, Inc > www.secureemailplus.com > > > > > > > > > > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------ ---- > ---- > WISPA Wants You! Join today! > http://signup.wispa.org/ > ------------------------------------------------------------------------ ---- > ---- > > WISPA Wireless List: wireless@wispa.org > > Subscribe/Unsubscribe: > http://lists.wispa.org/mailman/listinfo/wireless > > Archives: http://lists.wispa.org/pipermail/wireless/ > > > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------ ---- ---- > WISPA Wants You! 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