My comment: Once the basic welfare system is close to be extended across the whole China and in particular the basic infraestructrure of education and healthcare is on its way, China has been trying to change its growth model since some years ago. From low value added manufacturing (such as metal processing) toward higher value added jobs, and from an export oriented economy to a balanced export- domestic consumption economy. Obviously a crisis like this is not the best time to produc such huge changes. But that is the time that we have to deal with and, on the other hand, to produce such dramatic changes while economy growth is still high is almost mandatory for any country that does not want to produce a human crisis.
Most of those industries are moving toward other countries (mostly Vietnam). We do not see a serious negative human impact on unemployment or human conditions in China due to this process. But this crisis makes that authorities will have to play even closer attention to those indicators to avert any damage to Chinese people. China Manufacturing Contracts as Crisis Trims Exports (Update1) http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=asxpXKBhstjU&refer=home On 20 oct, 19:41, "[EMAIL PROTECTED]" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > My comment: Excellent news. Growth is slowing down as a consequence of > global slow down and Chinese fight against inflation. But its pace, 9% > in Q3, is still really high. > > Investments are strong enough to sustain development. "Investment in > urban areas grew 27.6 percent to 9.9871 trillion yuan, 1.2 percentage > points higher than the same period of last year, and rural fixed > assets investment rose 23.3 percent to 1.6375 trillion yuan, 2.1 > percentage points higher." Good news, investments in rural areas grew > faster than in urban areas, probably it means that the fight to trimm > inequalities between urban and rural areas are producing good > results. > > China's CPI rises 4.6% in > Septemberhttp://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-10/20/content_10222532.htm > > China's GDP up 9.9% in Jan.-Sept. period, 9 percent for the third > quarterhttp://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-10/20/content_10222493.htm > > China's fixed assets investment up 27.0% in 1st three > quartershttp://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-10/20/content_10222671.htm > > Peace and best wishes. > > Xi > > On Oct 15, 3:24 pm, "[EMAIL PROTECTED]" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > My comment: It means that if China is the engine of global growth, to > > keep it on track despite global crisis is contribution enough to the > > global economy. > > > China airs resolve to keep economy in good > > shapehttp://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-10/14/content_10195060.htm > > > BEIJING, Oct. 14 (Xinhua) -- China on Tuesday reaffirmed its resolve > > to keep its economy on track amid the global financial turmoil. > > > In a meeting with visiting U.S. Senator Chuck Hagel, Vice Premier > > Wang Qishan said the financial crisis, triggered by the U.S. credit > > crunch, had exerted a grave impact on the global financial market. > > > "As a responsible country, China has always valued the > > communication and cooperation with other nations to ensure world > > financial and economic stability." > > > Wang said China would make great efforts to keep its economy on > > the right track, which would be the country's greatest contribution to > > the world. > > > China had implemented and would continue measures to ensure the > > stability of finance, economy and the capital market, he said, > > referring to a package of new policies to spur economic growth. > > > The central bank cut interest rates on Sept. 15 for the first time > > in six years. > > > The People's Bank of China, the central bank, announced the > > deposit and lending rates would be lowered by 0.27 percentage points > > and the reserve-requirement ratio would be reduced 0.5 percentage > > points starting Oct. 15. > > > "With tools at our disposal, we are confident and capable of > > prevailing over the overall difficulties and challenges," Wang told > > Hagel. > > > He added the overall bilateral relations of the two countries had > > moved forward and become increasingly interdependent since forging > > diplomatic ties in 1979. > > > To promote China-U.S. ties was in the fundamental interests of the > > two nations, he said. > > > Wang proposed the two deepen a strategic trust and take a candid > > and pragmatic approach in addressing differences. They should work > > more closely on economy, trade, investment, energy, environment and > > high-tech. > > > He also urged the United States to observe the three joint > > communiques, refrain from anything harmful to bilateral ties and the > > stability of the Taiwan Straits, so as to ensure the sound and steady > > progress of bilateral constructive cooperation. > > > As all nations were becoming more connected, Hagel, a Republican > > senator from Nebraska, said the stronger cooperation between the > > United States and China would help ensure world financial and economic > > stability. > > > On Oct 14, 3:33 pm, "[EMAIL PROTECTED]" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > My comment: Thanks to the drop of commodity prices, price inflation > > > will be under control. Because of that, and because global slow down, > > > we can and have to focuss our effort on development. Not just on > > > growth but on a certain type of growth. I already posted about what > > > sort of consumption we can address (mostly services, rural > > > development, etc.). > > > > The main decissions of the CC of the CPC target it, to enhance > > > healthcare, to develop rural areas, education, environmental > > > opportunities, consumption. > > > > Lot of work ahead. > > > > China's Trade Surplus Widens to Record $29.3 > > > Billionhttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aX4Pl63eHKbA > > > > On Sep 15, 11:30 pm, "[EMAIL PROTECTED]" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > > > wrote: > > > > > As expected, > > > > > China's central bank reduces credit interest rate, reserve requirement > > > > ratiohttp://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-09/15/content_10011166.htm > > > > > It will allow banks to improve their profit and loss account, as 17.5% > > > > was extremely high. If price inflation goes down and down as expected, > > > > we should expect more cuts of rates. > > > > > Also, it will release the economy a little bit. But not much. Higher > > > > taxes will keep growth at a healthy 9%-10%. Higher would be too risky > > > > as commodities might rise and, therefore, price inflation could rise > > > > again if economy is too hot. > > > > > Peace and best wishes. > > > > > Xi > > > > > On Sep 10, 4:19 pm, "[EMAIL PROTECTED]" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > > My comment: After two years fighting against inflation, price > > > > > inflation are now under control but still high. The "unbelievable" > > > > > rate in August is 4.9%, in this way they can reach the initial goal > > > > > (4.8%) or any other goal. Much more realistic and healthy would be the > > > > > revised one 7.2%. In this way, they could ease finantial rules to curb > > > > > investments and growth. The lower fees of oil and other commodities > > > > > along next months will help to keep it under control while for example > > > > > they can ease reserve ratio of banks, increase liquidity, etc. > > > > > > As you can see US government is not the only one where official > > > > > inflation does not match real inflation. A more resonable rate and > > > > > what everybody predicted is between 6.5% and 7%, declining month after > > > > > month, but still high. When you distribute thousands of food, > > > > > umbrellas, and all sort of gimmies for free (price = 0) for the > > > > > Olympics the average price falls, but it does not mean that the real > > > > > price inflation falls so fast. > > > > > > PPI (produccion price index) is still high and it does not lie. > > > > > > Anyway, goodnews. > > > > > > China's CPI rises 4.9% in > > > > > Augusthttp://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-09/10/content_9892295.htm > > > > > > Peace and best wishes. > > > > > > Xi > > > > > > On Jul 17, 4:00 pm, "[EMAIL PROTECTED]" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > > > My comment: Here we can see how differnet price rise rates use to be > > > > > > accurarate to each other. We talked about CPI (around 7,2%) > > > > > > > China's PPI rises 7.6 percent in first half of > > > > > > 2008http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-07/17/content_8560093.htm > > > > > > > China's GDP up 10.4 percent in first half > > > > > > year.http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-07/17/content_8560003.htm > > > > > > > On Jul 10, 4:53 pm, "[EMAIL PROTECTED]" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > > > > My comment: Firtly, good to know that the goal 4.8% is forgotten > > > > > > > finally. This is a bit more realistic. > > > > > > > > Seems that authorities share the suspictions that I stated > > > > > > > yesterday.The expected declining of the CPI in June, also helps to > > > > > > > turn the economic policy. Now we should expect that they stop > > > > > > > tightening monetary policy and let grow the economy. But atention, > > > > > > > only in the economic areas where we are interested and help to > > > > > > > move > > > > > > > toward the harmonious society, read the article related to > > > > > > > aluminium > > > > > > > production cuts caused by coal production cuts. > > > > > > > > Report: China CPI to rise 7.2% in > > > > > > > 2008http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-07/10/content_8523307.htm > > > > > > > > China's Aluminum Producers Agree to Cut Output by > > > > > > > 10%http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=a.Mw8ZSg_6c0&refe... > > > > > > > > On Jul 9, 3:59 pm, "[EMAIL PROTECTED]" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > > > > > My comment: I trust on Chinese authorities, they know what they > > > > > > > > do. > > > > > > > > Every change of model produces difficulties and harm to some > > > > > > > > people > > > > > > > > until they can adapt their life to the new model. The change > > > > > > > > from a > > > > > > > > hyper-developing economy to the harmonious society will produce > > > > > > > > some > > > > > > > > harm to some people. I hope that authorities do things as slow > > > > > > > > and > > > > > > > > step by step as required, I trust on them, but still a bit > > > > > > > > afraid, it > > > > > > > > is so difficult. > > > > > > > > > China Exports May Slow, Fueling Calls to Limit > > > > > > > > Yuanhttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=axlaZ362BdZQ&refe... > > > > > > > > > July 9 (Bloomberg) -- China's export growth probably slowed last > > > > > > > > month, giving more ammunition to manufacturers calling for the > > > > > > > > government to slow the pace of the yuan's gains. > > > > > > > > > Overseas shipments climbed 22 percent from a year earlier after > > > > > > > > gaining 28.1 percent in May, according to the median estimate > > > > > > > > of 23 > > > > > > > > economists surveyed by BloombergNews. The data may be released > > > > > > > > as > > > > > > > > early as today. > > > > > > > > > Rising raw-material, energy and labor costs and a 6.6 percent > > > > > > > > gain in > > > > > > > > the yuan versus the dollar this year have squeezed profits, > > > > > > > > just as > > > > > > > > the outlook for demand abroad weakens, exporters say. More than > > > > > > > > 2,000 > > > > > > > > shoemakers closed in Guangdong province, the world's largest > > > > > > > > footwear > > ... > > leer más » --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "World-thread" group. To post to this group, send email to world-thread@googlegroups.com To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/world-thread?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
