U.S. Economy: Factory Index Declines to 26-Year Low http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aCB8T2i79n_8
The Institute for Supply Management's factory index fell to 38.9 from 43.5 in September; 50 is the dividing line between expansion and contraction. On 30 oct, 17:29, "[EMAIL PROTECTED]" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > My comment: The purchasing power falls. > > U.S. Economy: GDP Shrinks at Fastest Pace Since 2001 > (Update2)http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=al..RukPocIo&refe... > > On 28 oct, 18:04, "[EMAIL PROTECTED]" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > My comment: I have told several times that, nowadays, this index is > > extremely important as, in normal circumstances, it predicts social > > cohesion when its value is very high, and social unrest when its value > > is very low. Its current value, 38, is extremely low for a normal > > society. > > > As I told by e-mail to some of you, I thought that it would be > > slightly above 50. I, and many other economists according to this > > report, was wrong. Anyway, the expectation that a new president can > > improve the situation probably will refrain demostrations, riots, etc. > > as would be the normal consequence of this value. > > > I guess that this short period of relief that US economy is living > > this month and maybe one or two months ahead, will make this index to > > rise slightly until the next wave of bad news. > > > Anyway, this index becomes extremely important nowadays and has to be > > monitored very close in the near future.. > > > Peace and best wishes. > > > Xi > > >http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a08qtJ.tt8ng&refe... > > > Oct. 28 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. consumer confidence fell to the lowest > > level on record in October as stocks plunged and banks shut off > > credit, raising the risk spending will collapse. > > > The Conference Board's confidence index tumbled to 38, lower than > > forecast and the worst reading since monthly records began in 1967, > > the New York-based research group said today. A separate report showed > > home values continued to drop in August. > > > Stocks pared gains on the outlook for consumer spending, which > > accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy. The report > > strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve will lower interest > > rates again after a likely reduction tomorrow. > > > ``It'll be a prolonged recession,'' said Carl Riccadonna, a senior > > economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York. ``We're > > looking at a very sharp pullback in consumer spending. As go > > consumers, so goes the broader economy.'' > > > Whirlpool Corp., the world's largest appliance maker, said today it > > will cut 5,000 jobs and forecast lower annual profit as the global > > credit crunch and U.S. housing slump clips appliance sales. Royal > > Caribbean Cruises Ltd., the world's second-largest cruise operator, > > forecast profit that trailed some analysts' estimates because of a > > ``significant deterioration'' in bookings. > > > The confidence report underscored voter discontent with the country's > > direction heading into the Nov. 4 presidential election. A majority of > > voters think Illinois Senator Barack Obama, the Democrat, will be > > better able to handle the economic turmoil than Republican rival John > > McCain, according to polls. > > > Consumer confidence was projected to drop to 52, according to the > > median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 66 economists. Forecasts > > ranged from 45 to 56.6. September's reading was revised up to 61.4 > > from an originally reported 59.8. > > > Heading South > > > ``The economy feels like it is contracting at a rapid pace,'' Lewis > > Alexander, chief economist at Citigroup Global Markets Inc. in New > > York, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. ``It's clear that > > consumers have really been affected by the volatility we've seen in > > the last six weeks.'' > > > The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 9.4 points, or 1.1 percent, to > > 858.34 as of 11:50 a.m. in New York, after being up almost 33 points > > earlier. Treasury securities fell. > > > The 23.4-point drop in confidence this month was the third- biggest on > > record, trailing two plunges in the early 1970s linked to oil shocks. > > Measures on current conditions and expectations both declined. > > > Home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas dropped 16.6 percent in > > August from the same month in 2007, the fastest pace since year-over- > > year records began in 2001, a report from S&P/Case-Shiller today > > showed. For a fifth consecutive month, all areas registered a decrease > > in prices from a year earlier. > > > Foreclosures Climb > > > The housing slump is likely to extend well into a fourth year as > > foreclosures put more properties on the market and drive down prices > > even more. > > > The Conference Board's measure of present conditions dropped to 41.9 > > from 61.1 the prior month. The gauge of expectations for the next six > > months slumped to 35.5 from 61.5. > > > The share of consumers who said jobs are plentiful dropped to 8.9 > > percent from 12.6 percent last month. The proportion of people who > > said jobs are hard to get jumped 5 points to 37.2 percent. > > > The proportion of people who expect their incomes to rise over the > > next six months dropped to 10.8 percent from 15.1 percent. The share > > expecting more jobs decreased to 7.4 percent from 11.9 percent. > > > The confidence figures corroborate declines seen in other measures. A > > report earlier this month showed the Reuters/University of Michigan > > preliminary index of consumer sentiment decreased in October by the > > most on record. > > > The Conference Board's index tends to be more influenced by attitudes > > about the labor market, economists have said. > > > Job Losses > > > The economy lost jobs for nine consecutive months through September, > > bringing the total drop in payrolls to 760,000 this year, Labor > > Department figures showed. Some economists anticipate job losses > > accelerated in October. > > > Consumer spending probably dropped last quarter by the most in almost > > two decades, economists forecast a Commerce Department report will > > show in two days. As a result, the economy probably shrank from July > > to September, the survey showed. > > > Today's confidence report showed fewer people planned to purchase > > automobiles and major appliances. Home-buying plans improved. > > > The slump in spending may be even bigger this quarter as consumers > > retrench. The International Council of Shopping Centers predicts the > > November-December holiday season, which brings in more than a third of > > some retailers' annual sales, will be the weakest since 2002. > > > The credit freeze ``impacted consumers' attitudes,'' Farooq Kathwari, > > chief executive officer of home-furnishings retailer Ethan Allen > > Interiors Inc., said in a Bloomberg Television interview this month. > > ``People are cautious, people are holding back.'' --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "World-thread" group. 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