I don't have the time to fully reply to this, and let's just say the whole thing is so complex that even I can't follow it. However, with respect to China, those savings you refer to are in DOLLARS and TREASURIES. And it has already been noted that there has been a drop in their purchasing.
============= See, this is what Meme wrote. I think this means that she believes that "savings" are all in dollars. I did not think this was true, and as far as I understand, you have many funds NOT IN DOLLARS, to be used for the development that will keep the country's growth going up. And all of these plans include more employees -- they are not just a transfer from savings to consumerism. There's much there for new jobs in the same way that Obama proposes new jobs in America, in the fields of infrastructure, more healthcare for the rural people and with more money it encourages some consumerism, but probably doesn't take away the savings too much. That's what I meant. On Dec 11, 1:11 pm, "[email protected]" <[email protected]> wrote: > Sovereign fund is just a part (around 20%) of foreign reserves. > > There are many other types savings. Such as funds from local > governments, that all combined are larger than central government. > Also, state owner corporations, local governments owner corporations. > Also, there are associations and unions, for example it is usual in > villages and little towns that parents belñong to an association that > has a fund for students, parents pay some money and then the best > students go to college or to university for free. > > There are tonnes of sources of funds. > > About the plan, somehow it is a trick. Foreign surplus is $200bn yet > per quarter. The stimulus plan is just the usual investment plus what > is expected to be the foreign surplus along that period. > > Therefore, foreign surplus will drop or even it will not grow at all > during this plan. > > But, in my opinion, what do we want more dollars for? They are useless > for China. > > Peace and best wishes. > > Xi > > > > Justice wrote: > > I didn't ask the question right. Meme has said that the sovereign > > fund represents all savings in China. > > > I did not think that was true. I thought that the sovereign fund > > represented government savings but that private persons have their own > > savings account. > > > So I was looking for sovereign fund wealth verus "Private savings" in > > order to see if China still has many reserves upon which to draw to > > make the changes she is committed to over the next few years. > > > On Dec 10, 12:53 pm, "[email protected]" <[email protected]> > > wrote: > > > Regarding percentage. Right now, I can check detailed data. If you > > > want, I can get them. Roughly: CITIC (the sovereign fund) is allowed > > > to invest up to $400bn, total foreign reserves are slightly above 2 > > > trillions right now. CITIC has declared $6bn losses in US financial > > > investments. > > > > Right now, to invest in treasuries or in US dollars is almost the same > > > risk and same profit (or loss). treasuries are not so liquid as > > > dollars and dollars make you lose no more than 2% compared to > > > treausries, then, hardly to make a decission to invest in treasuries. > > > > Regarding minimum growth to keep pace of population, to predict a > > > certain percentage without stating premises is a nonsense, in China or > > > anywhere else. Which is the minimum growth in USA to keep pace of > > > population? It depends on population growth -migration depends on > > > crisis or faster growth-, and also investments can be more capital > > > oriented or more labor oriented what produce more or less employment > > > per percentage point of growth. > > > > The current policy, adopted at the begining of 2008, pushes rural > > > areas and basic infraestructures. That means higher employment than > > > the sort of investments in cities and developed areas as it happened > > > until 2007 that were oriented toward higher productivity. > > > > In any case, we will have a better macroeconomic prediction for next > > > year once the economic conference releases conclusions for the plan > > > for 2009. > > > > Peace and best wishes. > > > > Xi > > > > On Dec 10, 5:04 pm, Justice <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > > I had posted the RGE Swaps article here in this part to which I added: > > > > > ============ > > > > It's "nice" that the fed is able to borrow for "free" -- even if it > > > > is > > > > 28 days, even as they loan out money to these same entities at 1% -- > > > > but somehow it just doesn't make sense. > > > > > China doesn't seem to be in the mode of "cashing in" -- they have so > > > > much in savings that they can tap -- I suspect they are just waiting > > > > for maturity, like everyone else. It just won't be a roll over -- > > > > which means coming up with cash to pay out. Have no idea when they > > > > are due, but I do recall Greenspan telling Bush that it would be > > > > harmful to pay off long term debt in advance -- but that was 8 years > > > > ago. > > > > > As I understand it, it takes about 7% growth in that country to stay > > > > even (although 10% is what is reported) and they are still chugging > > > > along from between 8-9%. > > > > > On Dec 9, 9:35 pm, NovaeMeme <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > > NovaeMeme View profile > > > > More options Dec 10, 9:44 am > > > > > From: NovaeMeme <[email protected]> > > > > Date: Wed, 10 Dec 2008 06:44:10 -0800 (PST) > > > > Local: Wed, Dec 10 2008 9:44 am > > > > > > China doesn't seem to be in the mode of "cashing in" -- they have so > > > > > much in savings that they can tap -- I suspect they are just waiting > > > > > for maturity, like everyone else. It just won't be a roll over -- > > > > > which means coming up with cash to pay out. Have no idea when they > > > > > are due, but I do recall Greenspan telling Bush that it would be > > > > > harmful to pay off long term debt in advance -- but that was 8 years > > > > > ago. > > > > > As I understand it, it takes about 7% growth in that country to stay > > > > > even (although 10% is what is reported) and they are still chugging > > > > > along from between 8-9%. > > > > > I don't have the time to fully reply to this, and let's just say the > > > > whole thing is so complex that even I can't follow it. However, with > > > > respect to China, those savings you refer to are in DOLLARS and > > > > TREASURIES. And it has already been noted that there has been a drop > > > > in their purchasing. > > > > > =================== > > > > Xi -- how much of the "savings" is in sovereign wealth? How much of > > > > the sovereign wealth has been put into US bonds, etc.? > > > > > ===================================== > > > > Original post which you might not have seen: > > > > > > > > > For the first time ever, the Federal Government was able to > > > > > > > > borrow > > > > > > > > money from the open market for FREE. That s right no interest > > > > > > > > payment > > > > > > > > at all for Uncle Sam. > > > > > > > > The most recent auction of $30 billion worth of 28-day > > > > > > > > Treasuries had > > > > > > > > four-times the number of buyers than they had bonds, and at zero > > > > > > > > percent interest. First time that s ever happened. > > > > > > > > It s a sure sign that investors are scared. They d rather park > > > > > > > > their > > > > > > > > cash with the government and get no appreciation just the > > > > > > > > principle > > > > > > > > back than risk it in the stock market or even a bank account. > > > > > > > > And it s not just the four-week bonds that are pegging all-time > > > > > > > > low > > > > > > > > interest rates. On Monday, $27 billion worth of three-month > > > > > > > > Treasury > > > > > > > > bills were auctioned with an infinitesimally small 0.005% rate > > > > > > > > the > > > > > > > > lowest on that particular term since the government first > > > > > > > > issued them > > > > > > > > in 1929.- Hide quoted text - > > > > > - Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text - > > > > - Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text - > > - Show quoted text - --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "World-thread" group. 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