I am very sorry if I make you be speechless. LOL
(((((Mercury))))) Peace and best wishes. Xi On Jan 5, 3:06 am, "Mercury.Sailor" <[email protected]> wrote: > On Jan 4, 12:04 pm, "[email protected]" <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > > This past summer, this crisis became an economic crisis, type U, not > > just a financial crisis, type V. > > > Type U crisis have four phases. > > > 1.- First phase. The left side of the U. Indicators fall sharply and > > at a constant or even growing pace. For example, right now, > > unemployment falls at 1% per month. We cannot know how long we will > > have this phase. > > > 2.- Second phase. The left-bottom side of the U. Indicators still > > fall, but the pace is slower and slowr. For example, emplyment falls > > 0.9% this month, 0.7 next month, etc. Now, it is the first time that > > we can predict when we will reach the bottom. > > > 3.- Third phase. The right-bottom side of the U. Indicators start to > > rise, but at a slow pace yet. For example, employment raises 0.1% this > > month, 0.3% next month, etc. We have left the bottom behind. > > > 4.- Fourth phase. Indicators rise sharply. > > > As this is an economic crisis, not just a financial crisis, we need > > net investments and trade. Net investments are the difference between > > investments and disinvestments. Right now, we are in a disinvestment > > phase yet. That is why your administration, among many others, plan to > > invest huge amounts of funds, to start to counter disinvestments. > > Since we start an investment until we see results we need AT LEAST 6 > > to 9 months. For example, since you decide to build a shop until you > > open that shop and you produce results you need that time. It cannot > > be shorter, but unfortunately it can be longer because many reasons > > (investment were not enough, it was not the right business, etc.), > > then we are not sure if the owner of the shop will disinvest some > > months later. > > > I hope it helped. If not, make as many questions as you want, of > > course. > > > Peace and best wishes. > > > Xi > > > Mercury.Sailor wrote: > > > Good Morning XI!!! > > > > I hope you had a good night! A question for you. > > > > > Conclusion. The first 6 to 9 months of 2009 will not see the bottom of > > > > this crisis. When that bottom will be reached? Nobody knows. > > > > If nobody knows, How can we say we haven't already reached rock > > > bottom? Is that just me and my wishful ignorant thinking? > > > > On Jan 3, 9:59 am, "[email protected]" <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > Mercury, you made a question one moth ago that I promised to answer. > > > > It was more or less, how will be 2009 in economic terms? > > > > > We know one thing. It will not reach its bottom in the first 6 to 9 > > > > months of 2009, it is mathematically impossible. It does not mean that > > > > it will rebound in the last quarter calendar year, it means that most > > > > economists do not know when the bottom will be reached. Both > > > > optimistic and pessimistic predictions are rather based on wishes than > > > > in facts or in serious studies. > > > > > I have to say that, sometimes, the future is unpredictable because the > > > > present is not real, not based on facts. It is happening nowadays. > > > > > Nowadays, the price of oil is not a market price, that price is a > > > > consequence of international politic decissions. Energy has strong > > > > influence on all commodities and therefore on inflation, trade, > > > > growth, etc. > > > > > Also, since the G20 meeting, most developed countries are changing > > > > their economic policies and strategies. For example USA. Financial > > > > policies such as interest rate management, liquidity, etc. are being > > > > balanced step by step by economic policies such as infraestructure > > > > development, cheap houses, direct subsidies to lower economic classes, > > > > promotion of durable goods, etc. The developed Western world has > > > > started to get rid of the the sequels of monetarism. Yet it has not > > > > found a model that can fit into their economies. They dig on Keynes > > > > again, they create replicas of the Chinese plan, they innovate, etc. > > > > therefore we do not how that mix will work for them. Lot of > > > > uncertainities. For economies, uncertainity is ugly, it prevents trade > > > > and development. > > > > > Furthermore, I have to say that when we mean rebound it is not a > > > > rebound in order to reach the bright economies of some years or > > > > decades ago. It is just a temporary recovery, another recession will > > > > follow that temporary recovery. Let me explain why. > > > > > The world is always moving ahead. One example, in 1950 millions of > > > > miles of road were a bright idea, because cheap oil helped trade, it > > > > created wealth, etc. Thousands of building with primitive heating > > > > systems was a bright idea because coal was cheap, coal fueled > > > > factories were bright and cheap, etc. Those roads, buildings, > > > > factories, etc. are now obsolete compared with modern railways, > > > > buildings, cities, etc. Obsolete in terms of wellbeing and in terms of > > > > competitiveness. > > > > > Some economies relaxed themselves and did not refurbish their > > > > structures, their means, their management and politic styes, etc. > > > > because "it worked until now". Now, in order to reshape them according > > > > to 21st century, it will not be easy, they will have to refurbish in > > > > few years what others did in decades. That is painful and expensive, > > > > but there is no option if they want to find a place under the heaven > > > > in this century. > > > > > Even some countries, including very relevant economists, have to find > > > > how the real world of this century works, they have to accept it and > > > > then they have to reshape themselves according to it. To me, sadly, > > > > they seem to be looking yet for answers to the question "why this > > > > happened?", and to find the answers is just the first step of a long, > > > > expensive and painful road. > > > > > Conclusion. The first 6 to 9 months of 2009 will not see the bottom of > > > > this crisis. When that bottom will be reached? Nobody knows. But once > > > > it will be reached and a temporary relief gained, another crisis > > > > awaits in some developed countries. > > > > > Peace and best wishes. > > > > > Xi- Hide quoted text - > > > - Show quoted text - --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "World-thread" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/world-thread?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
