Both Clinton and Carter know only too well that the key to peace in the Middle East is not the development of influence over radical Palestinian elements, but the curtailment of Israel's military might. So long as Israel can strike at its neighbours with impunity using the latest US military technology, the prospect for peace simply does not exist. Peace can never be imposed down the barrel of a gun, particularly while Israel continues to deny the Palestinians access to their land and their statehood.
So will Obama attempt to threaten Israel with a reduction in military support in order to force them to be more conciliatory at the negotiating table? His pre-election rhetoric seemed to indicate that this was not an option. However, developments in the Middle East may force him to reconsider. Indeed, he may have no choice but to engineer an increase in Israel's military vulnerability in order to encourage her to make peace with her neighbours. Otherwise political and economic developments in the region may do it for him, in a less predictable manner. The one thing Israel fears most is synchronised aggression on several fronts. To date the prospect of this has been kept at bay by US economic aid to Egypt and Jordan, and its military intervention in Iraq. However, the US may not be able to afford the level of aid that it has previously bestowed on Israel's neighbours. Moreover, US influence in Iraq is scheduled to diminish rapidly in the next few years, while open support for the Palestinians is set to become more pronounced in Iraqi society. The pro-western Egyptian Government has systematically given in to the demands of Islamic fundamentalists on a range of domestic policy issues in the last few years. This has been the price of ensuring internal stability, and increased support for the Palestinian cause is sure to be high on the fundamentalist's policy wish list. While war-ravaged Lebanon is unlikely to constitute a threat, the same cannot be said of Syria and Iran. Indeed, it is possible that the former may be encouraged to be more reckless by the increasingly radical behaviour of the latter. Attempting to bomb Iran's emerging nuclear capability will not affect its growing military support for the Palestinians. And don't forget that imposing an oil-purchasing embargo on Iran's oil is no longer an option. Lastly, we cannot ignore the impact of the world economic crisis on the fate of the Gulf's petro-dollars. The Gulf States have almost certainly taken a knock on the London and New York markets and prevailing low interest rates will not entice them to return too soon. But return they must if western economic recovery is to occur. The hidden cost of attracting reinvestment from the Gulf's oil states will almost certainly include a hardening of western attitudes towards Israel. The next 24 months could see Israel's neighbours holding more cards than at anytime in the country's brief history. The strength of the pro-Palestinian lobby can only increase and Israel can only become more isolated. The window of opportunity for Mr Obama to secure an equitable and lasting peace appears very small. --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "World-thread" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/world-thread?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
