On the issue of employment recovery I think it is important to expect that pre-2008 employment levels will not be automatically re- established as the US economy emerges from the recession. The reason for this is that the pre-2008 level of domestic consumer demand was fuelled by the availability of vast quantities of cheap credit, the likes of which we will not see again. Even if the US economy recovers to its former level, many of those jobs will not be made available for the simple reason that they were underpinned by excessive consumer borrowing and spending, which neither Government nor consumers are likely to repeat. Also as any economy emerges from a recession, there is always an efficiency increase whereupon more is produced with fewer employees. I'm afraid the only way high levels of employment will be restored in the US is if the international demand for US goods increases significantly. Lots of global good will and a weak dollar will be essential for this.
On 9 Jan, 14:18, "[email protected]" <[email protected]> wrote: > My comment: Unfortunately, we do not see any significant change in the > pace of fall. To be honest, my main concern about US economy, right > now, is people s trust. We all can figure out objective data for the > near future, now what matters in the very short term is subjective > data. I want to see the next CCI (Consumer Confidence Index) at the > end of January. > > Peace and best wishes. > > Xi > > http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=akVSfn.0.ZmI&refe... > > Jan. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. lost 524,000 jobs in December, making > last year’s collapse in employment the worst since the end of World > War II and underscoring the severity of the recession President-elect > Barack Obama will inherit. > > The decline in payrolls was in line with forecasts and followed a drop > of 584,000 in November, bringing job losses for 2008 to 2.589 million, > the most since 1945, according to a Labor Department report today in > Washington. The jobless rate rose more than forecast to 7.2 percent, a > 15-year high, from 6.8 percent. > > The outlook for 2009 is no brighter as retailers from Wal- Mart Stores > Inc. to Macy’s Inc. slash profit forecasts and manufacturers including > Alcoa Inc. cut output and staff. The figures will intensify pressure > on U.S. lawmakers to speed Obama’s proposed fiscal stimulus through > Congress in an effort to save or create 3 million jobs. > > “We’re seeing pretty ugly numbers as the recession is worsening,” > Michael Gregory, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto, > said before the report. “It’s going to be devastating in terms of > consumer confidence and spending. The next couple of months will be > dismal.” > > Stock-index futures rose and Treasuries fell amid relief among some > investors the drop in payrolls wasn’t even bigger. Futures on the > Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index rose 0.6 percent to 912.20 at 8:34 > a.m. in New York, and yields on benchmark 10- year notes were at 2.46 > percent, from 2.44 percent late yesterday. The dollar was little > changed at $1.3690 per euro. > > Economists’ Forecasts > > Payrolls were forecast to drop 525,000 after a previously reported > 533,000 decline in November, according to the median estimate of 73 > economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Revisions subtracted 154,000 > from payroll figures previously reported for November and October. > > The jobless rate was projected to jump to 7 percent from a previously > reported 6.7 percent in November. > > Obama is pressing for a stimulus plan of about $775 billion, including > tax cuts and spending on everything from roads and schools to the > energy network. Yesterday he called for “dramatic action as soon as > possible” to help pull the world’s largest economy out of a slump > that’s into its second year. “If nothing is done, this recession could > linger for years,” Obama said in Fairfax, Virginia. > > Benchmark Revisions > > With today’s report, Labor revised figures from its household survey, > which includes the unemployment rate, going back five years. Benchmark > revisions to the payroll figures will be announced in February. > > Last month’s decline was the 12th consecutive drop in payrolls. The > economy created 1.1 million jobs in 2007. > > Today’s report showed factory payrolls shrank 149,000, the biggest > drop since August 2001, after decreasing 104,000 in November. > Economists had forecast a drop of 100,000. > > The decrease included a loss of 21,400 jobs in auto and parts > industries. Manufacturing, which makes up 12 percent of the economy, > shrank in December at the fastest pace in 28 years, Institute for > Supply Management figures showed. > > Payrolls at builders dropped by 101,000 after decreasing 85,000. > Financial firms reduced payrolls by 14,000, after a 28,000 loss the > prior month. > > Service industries, which include banks, insurance companies, > restaurants and retailers, subtracted 273,000 workers after a decline > of 402,000. Retail payrolls dropped by 66,600 after a 100,000 > decrease. > > Government Jobs > > Government payrolls increased by 7,000 after falling 3,000 the prior > month. > > Federal Reserve staff last month cut projections for gross domestic > product and the job market, stating the unemployment rate was “likely > to rise significantly into 2010,” according to minutes of policy > makers’ December meeting. > > Job losses threaten to pull the economy into a reinforcing cycle of > rising unemployment and declining household spending, what policy > makers call a negative feedback loop, which is difficult to snap once > it’s begun. > > Wal-Mart, the world’s biggest retail chain, yesterday said fourth- > quarter profit will miss its earlier forecasts after sales rose less > than analysts anticipated. Macy’s said December revenue slipped 4 > percent and announced it would close 11 stores. > > Sales at stores open at least a year dropped 2.2 percent in the last > two month months of 2008, the biggest holiday-season decline since the > International Council of Shopping Centers started keeping records in > 1970, the group said yesterday. > > Alcoa Cuts > > “These are extraordinary times, requiring speed and decisiveness to > address the current economic downturn,” Klaus Kleinfeld, chief > executive officer of Alcoa, said in a Jan. 6 statement announcing > 13,500 job cuts worldwide. The world’s largest aluminum producer said > it will trim an additional 1,700 contractor positions and froze hiring > and salaries in some areas. > > Some companies have taken other steps to lower costs. Caterpillar > Inc., the world’s largest maker of construction equipment, will put > 814 workers on an “indefinite” layoff, shipper FedEx Corp. cut the pay > of Chief Executive Officer Fred Smith and other employees, and auto- > parts supplier Visteon Corp. said it will trim the workweek and some > salaries. > > The average work week shrank to a record-low 33.3 hours from 33.5 > hours, today’s figures showed. Average weekly hours worked by > production workers dropped to 39.9 hours from 40.3 hours, while > overtime decreased to 3 hours from 3.3 hours. That brought the average > weekly earnings down by $2 to $611.39. > > Workers’ average hourly wages rose 5 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $18.36 > from the prior month. Hourly earnings were 3.7 percent higher than > December 2007. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast a 0.2 > percent increase from November and a 3.6 percent gain for the 12-month > period. --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "World-thread" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/world-thread?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
