The title, of course, refers to a movie in which Meryl Streep plays
the Editor of Vogue Magazine.  She may have been the woman who coined
the phrase, "60 is the new 40" meaning that women of 60 now have the
sex appeal, bodies and minds of 40 year olds.  In any case, whether
she said it or not about age, she certainly is part and parcel of the
clothing size changes we've seen over the years.

Marilyn Monroe is purported to have purchased size 12 dresses, which
would be equivalent to a size 6 or 10 today.  In some circles, 12 is
considered Large or Large Medium, whereas 6 or 10 is a perfect size
for "real" women and size 0, which never existed 40 years ago are what
most runway models wear and teenage oriental girls wear today.  (Back
then they were wearing petites and there were no zero, twos or fours
available.  You bought children's clothing.)

Oh well!  Now that we know the historical reference, here's the
nutshell.

Xi -- what do you think about this?

The Chinese Devil Wears Prada: Why 0% Growth is the New Size 6.8%
PrintShare
Delicious Digg Facebook reddit Technorati Nouriel Roubini | Jan 22,
2009
The Chinese came out today with their 6.8% estimate of Q4 2008 growth.
China publishes its quarterly GDP figure on a year over year basis,
differently from the U.S. and most other countries that publish their
GDP growth figure on a quarter on quarter annualized seasonally
adjusted (SAAR) basis.

When growth is slowing down sharply the Chinese way to measure GDP is
highly misleading as quarter on quarter growth may be negative while
the year over year figure is positive and high because of the momentum
of the previous quarters’ positive growth.

Indeed if one were to convert the 6.8% y-o-y figure in the more
standard quarter over quarter annualized figure Chinese growth in Q4
would be close to zero if not negative.

Other data confirm that China was in a borderline recession in Q4 and
that it may be in an outright recession in Q1: production of
electricity plunged 7.9% in y-o-y basis; the Chinese PMI has been
below 50 and close to 40 for five months now.

And with manufacturing being about 40% of GDP , manufacturing is
certainly in a sharp recession (negative growth) and the overall
economy may be close to a recession

So the 6.8% growth was actually a 0% growth – or possibly negative
growth – in Q4; and the Q1 figures look even worse.  So China is in a
recession regardless of what the highly massaged official numbers
claim.




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