I think that he is cautious, as much as he should be. Whether we are just behind the bottom or just ahead is difficult to answer. But the bottom is in this quarter January-March. It is spreading, but it is not deepening. Also some advanced industries are already rebounding. Forces from the North (Japan, USA, Europe, Korea) contribute negatively, forces from the South (ASEAN, the Gulf, Latinamerica, Africa) contribute positively. Now we can say that this crisis lasts between 6 to 12 months, that is what people can expect in the Chinese areas where it is arriving.
A different issue is that, while our development model changes, some areas will have harder time ahead while others will blossom soon or are already blossoming. Peace and best wishes. Xi On 28 feb, 16:30, xi <[email protected]> wrote: > http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-02/28/content_10917487.htm > > BEIJING, Feb. 28 (Xinhua) -- The global financial crisis has not yet > hit bottom and its impact is still spreading, said Chinese Premier Wen > Jiabao during his first-ever online chat Saturday. > > He also promised that China is "ready to take firmer and stronger > actions whenever necessary." > > The major impact of the crisis is on the country's real economy > instead of its financial sector, which after more than 10 years of > reform, is relatively stable and healthy and capable of withstanding > the crisis, he said. > > Wen said China's east coastal areas were hit hard, where the > economy is more export-dependent and labor intensive. The decline of > international market demands also caused the unemployment of a great > number of migrant workers. > > China's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 9 percent year-on-year > last year, the lowest since 2001, when an annual rate of 8.3 percent > was recorded. > > To cushion the blow of the international financial crisis, Wen > said China announced a package of stimulus plans covering four > aspects. > > The first is the announcement a 4-trillion-yuan (588 billion U.S. > dollars) economic stimulus and tax cuts. The second involves > revitalizing ten key industries. The third is technical upgrading. The > fourth is the building of a comprehensive social security network. > > INITIAL RESULTS, BUT TEMPORARY > > Wen said "the stimulus measures have shown initial effects and > produced good results in certain areas and fields." > > For example, the country has seen consecutive growth in credit > supply, with new loans standing around 440 billion yuan in November, > 770 billion yuan in December and 1.63 trillion yuan in January, Wen > said. > > He also cited figures on stronger retail sales and the rebound of > power generation and use. > > Consumption rose 18 percent year-on-year in January, while power > generation in the Feb. 11-20 period increased 15 percent year-on-year, > or up 13.2 percent from the first ten days of this month, he said. > > "Some key indicators showed the economic situation has somewhat > turned better," he said. "But those were just temporary indices and > couldn't be fully compared with the past figures." > > Wen said one indicator he valued most was power generation. > "Starting from mid February, power generation and consumption have > both resumed growth," he said. > > "We must fully realize we are facing a long-term and arduous > task," he added. > > "We must strengthen confidence in the face of the crisis and be > ready to take firmer and stronger actions when necessary." > > CONCERNS ON EMPLOYMENT, INCOME GAP AND PROPERTY > > Wen said migrant workers had been hit the hardest during the > financial crisis. > > About 20 million migrant workers in China had returned to the > countryside from cities without jobs, said Chen Xiwen, director of the > office of the central leading group on rural work, early this month. > > Other government officials estimated the number at 12 million. Wen > acknowledged the accurate number is yet to be counted. > > He said migrant workers did not complain about the government and > quietly returned to their hometowns, "some engaging in farming again, > others still seeking jobs." > > "I want to take the opportunity to extend my gratitude to our > migrant workers," he said, adding they had made great contributions to > the nation. > > The government should encourage them to start their own business > by offering tax stimulus and training opportunities, said Wen. > > He also expressed deep concerns over the employment issue of > college students and jobless urban families. > > "Employment is not only related to one's livelihood but also one's > dignity," said Wen. > > China's State Council, or the cabinet, issued a notice on Feb. 10 > urging governments at all levels to make every possible effort to > expand employment. > > When answering netizens' concerns over income discrepancies, Wen > said narrowing the rich-poor gap could not be achieved "in a static > state" and should be conducted alongside with economic development. > > He acknowledged that China's social and economic development does > have the problem of "imbalanced, discordant and unsustainable" > growth. > > The major problem is the imbalance between different regions, > between the urban and rural areas and income imbalance, he said. > > Meanwhile, Wen said he still has confidence in China's economy and > the development of Chinese enterprises. > > In a reply to complaints over the slumping stock market, he said > he is confident about the capital market as its performance is decided > by economic fundamentals and company profitability. > > The government has the responsibility to establish an open, fair > and transparent market environment and resolutely fight against > illegal acts such as manipulating the market, he said. > > Housing prices were among the most frequently asked questions > raised by netizens during the chat. In response, Wen said he hopes to > see a stable and healthy development of the country's real estate > sector in the face of the global financial crisis. > > China should strengthen management and regulation to keep housing > prices and the scale of property construction "at a reasonable level", > said Wen. > > Housing prices have long been under fire in China, as consumers > complain houses in large cities are too expensive to afford, giving > developers unfair huge profits. > > Wen said the government highly values the property industry as it > concerns the life of ordinary people and directly affects the national > economy. > > The government has urged for stronger confidence in the real > estate market while pledging more money and energy to meet the needs > of low-income families, he said. > > The government fund must be used properly to ensure house > construction is economical, safe and of good quality, said Wen. He > also noted the construction should save land and suit people's needs. > > "Auditing and supervision should go along with all property > projects," said Wen. "Problems must be dealt with whenever they > emerge." > > Property prices in 70 major Chinese cities fell 0.9 percent in > January from a year earlier, a faster fall than the previous month. > > In December, the figure saw the first year-on-year drop since the > government started to release it in 2005. --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "World-thread" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/world-thread?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
