My comment: Today it is China´s turn to provide fresh signs of rebound. As Brasil and India (and other emerging economies) offered days and weeks ago.
On the one hand, exports fall because decline of developed economies and imports slump because low price of commodities (1). On the other hand, investments rise (2). The good news is that investments counter collapse of exports because "Surging spending outweighs a slump in trade because fixed-asset investment accounts for 40 percent of China’s economic growth, versus 7 percent for net exports" (3). If we add rise of consumption in rural areas things start to look less cloudy. Yet we are not at the end of the recesionary phase of this crisis in some economies (4) (5). We are watching a change of the global model of development, it does not last neither a few months nor a few years. China, and other economies, is turning to a more balanced economy, more and more resilient to volatility that uses to come from some not well regulated foreign economies. This change happens around the world among most developed and developing economies. Some developed economies seem happy becoming net producers of cheap goods and services to be consumed and used in former poor countries, obviously poor countries are happy to receive goods and services that they could not afford in the past. Also, it is good to see that more and more Western economists are realizing what we told in this forum (and previously in others) since long ago: Hyperinflation awaits once this recessionary crisis ends up. Maybe with a relief of one or two years, maybe without any relief. Is our family ready to face it? Is our economy ready to face it? Peace and best wishes. Xi (1) China's Feb. trade worst in decade as global downturn deepens http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-03/11/content_10990447.htm (2) China's Jan.-Feb. urban fixed asset spending up 26% on stimulus http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-03/11/content_10989634.htm (3) China’s Investment Surges 26.5% as Exports Plunge http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=azvDuwwpkgTA&refer=home (4) A hope for the global economy (part 1) http://groups.google.com/group/world-thread/browse_thread/thread/50e6bde7dcda3955# (5) Very good news ! (part 2) http://groups.google.com/group/world-thread/browse_thread/thread/3e164c9da2c68e7b?hl=en# --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "World-thread" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/world-thread?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
