http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a3T8nKCSM8xA&refer=home


March 13 (Bloomberg) -- China, the U.S. government’s largest creditor,
is “worried” about its holdings of Treasuries and wants assurances
that the investment is safe, Premier Wen Jiabao said.

“We have lent a huge amount of money to the United States,” Wen said
at a press briefing in Beijing today after the annual meeting of the
legislature. “I request the U.S. to maintain its good credit, to honor
its promises and to guarantee the safety of China’s assets.”

U.S. President Barack Obama is relying on China to sustain buying of
Treasuries as his administration sells record amounts of debt to fund
a $787 billion economic-stimulus package. Chinese investors have lost
money on the securities so far this year, after increasing their
holdings 46 percent to $696 billion in 2008, according to Treasury
Department data.

“China’s purchases of American debt have been one of the few bolts
keeping the wheels on the global economy,” said Phil Deans, a
professor of international affairs at Temple University in Tokyo. “If
China stops buying where does Obama’s borrowing to fund his stimulus
come from?”

Treasuries declined, causing the yield on the 10-year U.S. note to
rise six basis points to 2.92 percent at 4:51 p.m. in Hong Kong,
according to BGCantor Market Data. The securities handed investors a
loss of 2.7 percent in yuan terms this year, according to Merrill
Lynch & Co.’s U.S. Treasury Master index. The dollar fell 0.2 percent
to $1.2938 per euro.

“Of course we are concerned about the safety of our assets,” said Wen.
“To be honest, I am a little bit worried.”

Risky Alternatives

China should seek to “fend off risks” as it diversifies its $1.95
trillion in foreign-exchange reserves, Wen said. Yu Yongding, a former
adviser to the central bank, said in an interview on Feb. 10 that the
nation should seek guarantees that its Treasury holdings won’t be
eroded by “reckless policies.”

Demand for the relative safety of Treasuries has been supported in the
past two years as finance companies reported $1.2 trillion in credit
losses. China boosted holdings of government debt as it lost of more
than $5 billion from investing $10.5 billion of its reserves in New
York-based Blackstone Group LP, Morgan Stanley and TPG Inc. since
mid-2007.

Currency market moves have been more favorable to holding U.S. bonds
this year. Chinese investors who bought Japanese government bonds
would have lost 7.7 percent so far this year in yuan terms, compared
with a 7.3 percent loss for holders of German bunds, according to the
Merrill Lynch indexes.

Shooting Itself

“China won’t sell the U.S. debt now as that will only drive down
Treasury prices, hurting not only the U.S. but also the value of its
own investments,” said Shen Jianguang, a Hong Kong-based economist at
China International Capital Corp., an investment bank partly owned by
Morgan Stanley.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will defend his spending
plans at the Group of 20 meeting near London this weekend. French
Finance Minister Christine Lagarde and Germany’s Peer Steinbrueck of
Germany want the summit to focus on improving regulation and
restraints on the finance industry.

The U.S. trade deficit and the government’s “nearly unrestricted”
borrowing led to excess liquidity worldwide and “sowed the seeds” of
the financial crisis, the People’s Bank of China said in a report
today. The dollar has dropped 17 percent against the yuan since China
ended a fixed exchange rate in July 2005. It was little changed at
6.8384 yuan today.

Printing Money

“China is worried that the U.S. may solve its problems by printing
money, which will stoke inflation,” said Zhao Qingming, a Beijing-
based analyst at China Construction Bank Corp., the country’s second-
biggest lender. “If the U.S. can make sure this won’t happen, then
China will continue to invest.”

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton urged China, while visiting
officials in Beijing on Feb. 22, to continue buying U.S. debt, which
she called a “safe investment.” She didn’t press China on its foreign-
exchange policy, backing away from January comments by Geithner that
the Chinese government manipulates its currency to boost exports.

China will maintain its policy of seeking a stable yuan, even as gains
against the euro and Asian currencies hurt the nation’s exporters,
Premier Wen said.

While the yuan has weakened 0.2 percent against the dollar this year,
there has been a “drastic depreciation” in the euro and Asian
currencies that has put a lot of pressure on Chinese exporters, Wen
said. The currency has gained 8.6 percent against the euro this year
and 6 percent against the Philippine peso.

Stimulus Plans

“Our goal is to maintain a basically stable yuan at a balanced and
reasonable level,” Wen said on the final day of the meeting of the
National People’s Congress. “At the end of the day, it is our own
decision and any other countries can’t press us to depreciate or
appreciate our currency.”

Collapsing exports have dragged the economy to its weakest growth in
seven years and eliminated the jobs of millions of migrant workers.
Wen reaffirmed China’s target of an 8 percent expansion in 2009 as
economies from the U.S. to Japan contract, saying the goal was
“difficult but possible” to achieve.

China can add “at any time” to 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) of
stimulus measures to revive the world’s third- biggest economy, Wen
said. Gross domestic product expanded 6.8 percent in the fourth
quarter, compared with 9 percent for all of last year and 13 percent
for 2007.

“We have reserved adequate ammunition,” Wen said, adding that the
fiscal deficit is under control and the debt level still safe. “At any
time, we can introduce new stimulus.”

Delegates of China’s legislative advisory body suggested that the
government diversify away from Treasuries into more risky assets.
Jesse Wang, executive vice president of China Investment Corp., said
on March 4 that the nation’s $200 billion sovereign wealth fund may
invest in “undervalued” commodities.

The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index that tracks 19 commodities dropped 55
percent from a record high of 473.97 reached in July. Oil prices fell
68 percent from July’s all-time peak of $147.27 a barrel.


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