While the former meeting in Washington seemed pretty peaceful, this one seems harder. The reason might be that, globally, we can see a relief in 2010 and maybe we, the global economy, might reach its bottom within 2009 or early 2010 in terms of growth or recession. Now, most governments are thinking on 1) the next phase of this crisis and 2) on rules to prevent new ones like this.
There one point of agreement: financial system requires more regulation, transparency, etc.. Both standardisation of good practices and rules seems to be a point of agreement. First disagreements come when we talk about international monitoring on how such practices are and will be into place in each practice. Is it just a gentlemen agreement? If not, which institution will monitor them? Has the current IMF authority to supervise them in all countries? And could it get a way to force them somehow? Most of those questions require a complete change of international institutions. If we trust on each other we have to trust on every feature. If we do not trust, if someone wants to keep control of those institutions that is fine but then they are not "our institutions" they are "their institutions". But even more important is disagreement on "what next?". And here we have the three visions. We are realinsing the three visions on the global eonomy, global trade, etc. On the one hand we have the vision from US authorities. We just require regulation, everything else is going fine. We, US authorities, can handle our economy including the US dollar. On the other hand, we have the Russian-Chinese vision. As the US dollar is a common currency, we, the world, either own a global currency or US monetary policy (and any other monetary policy) must be strictly enforced by a multilateral instititution that prevents, or at least softens, the collapse of the US dollar and an apocaliptic hyperinflation worldwide as result of current financial policies. A third pole is Europe-Japan. They share fears, but they both are cushioned by savings, wealth and robust social networks. They intend to allow slow decline until we all see and accept the unavoidable changes. My opinion is that unfortunately this thrid vision will prevail disregarding what final comuniques tells (if anything at all) about this issue. But, in fact, more and more the world will have two financial systems. One based on the IMF, the US dollar, etc. as it is today. While changing step by step. That system will apply to Europe and USA and a few strongly dependent economies.Secondly, we will have another system mostly for emerging and developing economies that formally will use one-to-one agreements such as swap mechanisms, bi- lateral or regional free trade zones, regional banks, etc. Peace and best wishes. Xi --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "World-thread" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/world-thread?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
