My comment: It is the so called COFER (Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves).
Several topics to highlight. 1) Total foreign exchange holdings declined along July to December 2008 for first time since 1995. In USD billions its evolution quarter by quarter was (Q1) 6,885,929 (Q2) 7,011,012 (Q3) 6,892,835 (Q4) 6,712,857. Not a surprise as the financial crisis spreaded at that time. Although it grew from Q4 2007 from 6,398,485. Or 3.9% growth 2008 vs. 2007. Now, let us disagregate them. 2) In developed economies its evolution was (Q1) 2,505,715 (Q2) 2,470,725 (Q3) 2,403,459 (Q4) 2,464,461, from 2,394,974 in Q4 2007. That means 2.9% growth 2008 vs. 2007. In developing and emerging economies its evolution was (Q1) 4,380,214 (Q2) 4,540,287 (Q3) 4,489,376 (Q4) 4,248,396, from 4,003,511 in Q4 2007. That means 6.1% growth 2008 vs. 2007. Global trade declined sharply since the concerted action between US authorities and Saudi authorities in July and August, and therefore it produced a decline on reserves globally. But, as we talked in this group, it beats harder to developed economies than to developing and emerging ones. This might be not expected by some. Some economic gurus predicted exactly the opposite. 3) Claims in U.S. dollars evolved along 2008 like this (Q1) 2,767,625 (Q2) 2,782,019 (Q3) 2,807,764 (Q4) 2,697,858, from 2,641,638 in Q4 2007. That means 2.1% growth 2008 vs. 2007. Or 180 basic points below the average growth of total foreign exchange holdings. On the other side, claims in euros evolved along 2008 like this (Q1) 1,169,176 (Q2) 1,186,125 (Q3) 1,116,835 (Q4) 1,116,780 from 1,082,276 in Q4 2007, That means 3.2% growth 2008 vs. 2007. Or 70 basic points below the average growth of total foreign exchange holdings. Scarcity of US dollars has not produced, 2007 vs. 2008, decline of total reserves as some expected, it just produced decline of the USD share on them compared, for example, to Euros. 4) If we compare them versus Yen, growth in Yen was from 120,473 (Q4 2007) up to 137,695 (Q4 2008), That means 14.3% growth 2008 vs. 2007. Japanese Yen grew 1140 basic points above the average growth of total foreign exchange holdings, while USD and Euro grew below the average. And finally, if we compare them with "other currencies", that are basically neighbour countries´s currencies used for bilateral trade they evolved from 75,748 (Q4 2007) up to 83,743 (Q4 2008). That means 10.6% growth 2008 vs. 2007. The group of "other currencies" grew about 770 basic points above the average growth of total foreign exchange holdings, while USD and Euro grew below the average. In other words, in this crisis, refuge currencies are Yen and "other currencies" rather than Euros, and even worse US dollars, Pounds Sterling, Swiss Francs, etc. 5) If we want longer term comparison, in 1995, total foreign exchange holdings were 1,389,801. Among them USD share was 610,337, or 85%. In year 2000, USD was 1,079,916 on a total amount of 1,936,282, or 55.8%. In year 2008, USD was 2,697,858 on a total foreign exchange holdings of 6,712,857, or 40.2%. Its share moved from 85% to 40.2% in just 14 years. And nothing makes us foresee that this trend can turn. On the contrary, money printing makes USD weaker. Not to be seriously concerned? Peace and best wishes. Xi Source of all data: International Monetary Fund. Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER) (All data in millions of U.S. dollars) http://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/cofer/eng/cofer.pdf --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "World-thread" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/world-thread?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
