My comment: We have to remember that this is a U-type crisis (or this phase of the whole crisis will show a figure that looks like a letter U), although some gurus are telling that it is a L-type or even a V- type.
The pace of decline of some indicators will not change during thise quarter, but other indicators will be flat compared to the previous quarter, or even, some indicators will raise alittle bit. Also, we have to take into account that the more aggregated an indicator is, its probability of inaccuracy is higher. The most accurate indicators nowadays are the simpler ones, such as confidence index, sales, etc. I think that sentiment is not falling sharply as it did last quarter, nowadays it tells me more than any very aggregated leading indicator. The possitive about this news is that finally they do not tell any more that recovery will start in second half 2009. To tell the truth is always a good thing. Peace and best wishes. Xi U.S. Economy: Leading Index Shows Recovery Many Months Away http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a1_vdHgXECNE&refer=home April 20 (Bloomberg) -- The index of U.S. leading economic indicators fell more than forecast in March, signaling what may be the longest recession in the postwar era will extend into the second half of the year. The Conference Board’s gauge, which points to the direction of the economy over the next three to six months, fell 0.3 percent after a 0.2 percent drop in February. The gauge hasn’t risen since June. Rising unemployment and tight credit mean recent gains in consumer spending, the biggest part of the economy, will probably not be sustained. Stocks dropped as a report by Bank of America Corp. raised concern Americans will keep falling behind on loan payments. “There’s no reason to think that this recession is going to end any time this spring or this summer,” Ken Goldstein, an economist at the New York-based Conference Board, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. While “there is at least a little bit of a hint that the intensity may begin to back off over the next few months” the recession is “going to be a long slog,” he said. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index fell 3.4 percent to 840.45 at 12:18 p.m. in New York. Treasuries climbed, sending benchmark 10-year note yields down to 2.84 percent from 2.95 percent at the close last week. Economists’ Forecasts The leading-indicators index was expected to decline 0.2 percent, according to the median of 51 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey, after an originally reported decrease of 0.4 percent the prior month. Six of the 10 measures in today’s report subtracted from the index, led by a plunge in building permits and declining stock prices. Faster vendor performance -- signaling a decrease in order backlogs -- a decline in factory hours, rising jobless claims and a drop in bookings for capital goods also contributed to the drop. “We are looking for a recovery that is significantly less robust than what is typically seen after deep recessions,” said Dean Maki, co-head of U.S. economic research at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York. A report today from Bank of America, the largest U.S. bank by assets, took some of the shine off the rebound in equities that began in mid March. The Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank said first-quarter profit more than tripled on gains from home refinancing and trading. Still, the stock dropped as rising charge-offs for uncollectible loans overshadowed the earnings. Lewis’s ‘Challenges’ “We continue to face extremely difficult challenges primarily from deteriorating credit quality driven by weakness in the economy and growing unemployment,” Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Kenneth D. Lewis, said in a statement. Three of the leading components improved last month, led by an increase in the supply of money. Other positives were a gain in the University of Michigan consumer expectations gauge and a widening spread between the 10-year Treasury and the overnight fed funds rate. Orders for consumer goods were little changed. Increased lending and purchases of securities by the Fed since credit markets seized last year have contributed to a jump in the money supply, the biggest component of the leading index. Still, Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke last week said the credit crisis will probably cause “long-lasting” damage to home prices and household wealth. GDP Decline Economists surveyed by Bloomberg in the first week of April forecast consumer spending will falter this quarter after a first-quarter spurt and recover only gradually toward the end of the year. Gross domestic product will probably decline at a 2 percent pace in the second quarter after an estimated 5 percent drop in the first three months of the year, according to the survey. Growth will pick up to an average pace of almost 1 percent in the second half, the surveyed showed. The recession that began in December 2007 already matches the longest since 1933, and the 6.3 percent decline in fourth- quarter GDP was the biggest since 1982. The downturn has cost 5.1 million jobs and economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast the unemployment rate will rise to 9.5 percent by the end of the year. The worst of the job losses may be over, according to a survey by the National Association for Business Economics. Half of the executives surveyed said they expect employment at their companies to stay the same over the next six months, compared with 45 percent in January. The share forecasting a decrease through attrition declined to 22 percent from 27 percent, and the share expecting a drop due to “significant layoffs” dipped to 11 percent from 12 percent. ‘Inflection Point’ “The economy is at an inflection point but has not yet reached a turning point,” Sara Johnson, an economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts, and chairman of NABE’s industry survey committee, said in a statement. “Key indicators -- industry demand, employment, capital spending and profitability -- are still declining, but the breadth of the decline is narrowing.” The Conference Board’s index of coincident indicators, a gauge of current economic activity, decreased 0.4 percent, after falling 0.6 percent the prior month. 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