Thank you very much ! Peace and best wishes.
Xi On Apr 24, 7:03 am, "Sumerian.." <sumerian...@yahoo.com> wrote: > Thank you Xi for your comment and views. > > Please accept from me this typical English usage: > > "What was "normal" in 2007 will not come back never again." > > Should read: > > "What was "normal" in 2007 will never come back again" > > .. and we hope that to be better for people of the world.. > > Love and regards. > > ======= > > S1000+ > > ======= > > --- On Thu, 4/23/09, xi <xieu.l...@gmail.com> wrote: > > From: xi <xieu.l...@gmail.com> > Subject: Re: Global economy may shrink for 1st time in 60 years > To: "World-thread" <world-thread@googlegroups.com> > Date: Thursday, April 23, 2009, 10:35 AM > > My comment: Great post, Sumerian, thank you very much. > > Good to see that step by step IMF turns to a more economic approach > instead of a pure financial approach as it did in the past. Many poor > countries had paid hardly its wrong advise along decades. > > They realise that "economic recoveries after financial crises "are > significantly slower" than ordinary recoveries typically are", in > other words, they accept that this is a U-type crisis and not a V-type > crisis. Yet I wonder why they do not see why. They repeat "financial > crisis" while exactly recovery to this crisis is significantly slower > because this is not a financial crisis, this is an economic crisis. > Sooner or later, they will realise it too. > > At least, they accept that economic rules such as development of > infraestructures are working. > > Yet, I am afraid that trees do not allow them to see the forest. They > say that "Because the world economy won't be back to normal next year > or perhaps even in 2011". I agree. And even in 2012, or in 2013, etc. > The global economic structure is changing. What was "normal" in 2007 > will not come back never again. We all have to get used to it. The > sooner they accept it, the sooner they will be able to play a > constructive role in the global economy. > > Peace and best wishes. > > Xi > > On Apr 22, 9:08 pm, "Sumerian.." <sumerian...@yahoo.com> wrote: > > > > > By JEANNINE AVERSA, AP Economics Writer Jeannine Aversa, Ap > > Economics Writer > > > – > > 44 mins ago > > > WASHINGTON – The world economy is likely to shrink this > > year for the first time in six decades. > > The > > International Monetary Fund projected the 1.3 percent drop in a dour > > forecast released Wednesday. That could leave at least 10 million more > > people around the world jobless, some private economists said. > > > "By any measure, this downturn represents by far the > > deepest global recession since the Great Depression," the IMF said in its > > latest World Economic Outlook. "All corners of the globe are being > > affected." > > > The new forecast of a decline in global economic activity > > for 2009 is much weaker than the 0.5 percent growth the IMF had estimated > > in January. > > > Big > > factors in the gloomier outlook: It's expected to take longer than > > previously thought to stabilize world financial markets and get credit > > flowing freely again to consumers and businesses. Doing so will be > > necessary to lift the U.S., and the global economy, out of recession. > > > The report comes in advance of Friday's meetings between > > the United States and other major economic powers, and weekend sessions of > > the IMF and World Bank. The talks will seek to flesh out the commitments > > made at a G-20 leaders summit in London last month, when President Barack > > Obama and the others pledged to boost financial support for the IMF and > > other international lending institutions by $1.1 trillion. > > The > > IMF's outlook for the U.S. is bleaker than for the world as a whole: It > > predicts the U.S. economy will shrink 2.8 percent this year. That would > > mark the biggest such decline since 1946. > > > Among the major industrialized nations studied, Japan > > is expected to suffer the sharpest contraction this year: 6.2 percent. > > Russia's economy would shrink 6 percent, Germany 5.6 percent and > > Britain 4.1 percent. Mexico's economic activity would contract 3.7 percent > > and Canada's 2.5 percent. > > > Global powerhouse China, meanwhile, is expected to see its > > growth slow to 6.5 percent this year. India's growth is likely to slow to > > 4.5 percent. > > > All told, the lost output could be as high as $4 trillion > > this year alone, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner estimated. > > > Besides trillions in lost business, a sinking world economy > > means fewer trade opportunities and higher unemployment. It raises the > > odds more people will fall into poverty, go hungry or lose their homes. > > And while keeping a lid on interest rates and consumer prices, the global > > recession > > increases the risk of deflation, which would drag down prices and > > wages, making it harder for people to make payments on their debt. > > > The jobless rate in the United States is expected to > > average 8.9 percent this year and climb to 10.1 percent next year, the IMF > > said. > > > In Germany, the jobless rate is expected to average 9 > > percent this year and 10.8 percent next year. Britain's unemployment rate > > is projected to rise to 7.4 percent this year and to 9.2 percent next year. > > > Brian Bethune, economist at IHS Global Insight, estimates > > that at least 10 million jobs could be lost this year, mostly in the United > > States and Europe, because of sinking global economic activity. > > > He > > and other economists said the 1.3 percent projected decline would be > > the first in roughly 60 years. In a report issued in mid-March, the IMF > > predicted global activity would contract this year "for the first time > > in 60 years," though it didn't offer a precise estimate then. > > > Next > > year, the IMF predicts the world economy will grow again — but just 1.9 > > percent. It said this would be consistent with its findings that > > economic recoveries after financial crises "are significantly slower" > > than ordinary recoveries typically are. > > > All those factors tend to weigh against prospects "for a > > speedy turnaround," the IMF said. > > > In > > 2010, the IMF predicts the U.S. economy will be flat, neither shrinking > > nor growing. Germany's and Britain's economies, meanwhile, will shrink > > less — by 1 percent and 0.4 percent respectively — it estimates. > > > Others countries, such as Japan, Russia, Canada and Mexico are projected to > > grow again. And China and India should pick up speed. > > > The financial crisis erupted in the United States in August 2007 > > and spread around the globe. The crisis entered a tumultuous new phase > > last fall, shaking confidence in global financial institutions and markets. > > Total worldwide losses from the financial crisis from 2007 to 2010 > > could reach nearly $4.1 trillion, the IMF estimated in a separate > > report Tuesday. > > > The crisis has led to bank failures, wiped out Lehman Brothers and forced > > other big institutions, like insurance giant American International Group, > > to be bailed out by U.S. taxpayers. > > > And it's triggered radical government interventions — such as the United > > States' $700 billion financial bailout program and the Federal Reserve's > > $1.2 trillion effort to lower interest rates and spur spending. > > > Actions by the United States and government in other countries > > have helped ease the crisis in some ways. But markets are still not > > operating normally. > > > The 185-nation IMF, headquartered in Washington, is the globe's > > economic rescue squad, providing emergency loans to countries facing > > financial troubles. It has urged countries to take bolder actions to > > bolster banks. > > > The IMF also has pushed countries to work more closely > > together. It favors coordinating fiscal stimulus efforts through tax > > reductions or greater government spending to stimulate the appetites of > > consumers and businesses. And it warned countries to resist the > > temptation of enacting protectionist trade measures. > > > "Fiscal policies had made a gigantic difference," said IMF Chief Economist > > Olivier Blanchard. > > Without them, the hit to the global economy would have been much > > greater and pushed it perilously close to "a depression," he added. > > > Because the world economy > > won't be back to normal next year or perhaps even in 2011, Blanchard > > urged countries to spend money on big public works projects — something > > the Obama administration is doing — to bolster activity. > > > Bold policy actions could set off a mutually reinforcing > > "relief rally" in financial markets and a revival in consumer and > > business confidence, the IMF said in its report. But it remains > > concerned that these policies won't be enough to break the vicious > > cycle whereby deteriorating financial institutions feed, in turn, > > weaker economic conditions. > > "The problem is that the longer the downturn continues to > > deepen, the slimmer the chances that such a strong rebound will occur, > > as pessimism about the outlook becomes entrenched and balance sheets > > are damaged further," the IMF said in the report Wednesday. > > > With the global economy stuck in a recession, the risks of a > > dangerous bout of deflation — a prolonged decline in prices that can > > worsen the economy — has risen. The IMF cited a "moderate" risk of > > deflation in the United States and in the 16 countries that use the > > euro. It saw a "significant likelihood of deeper price deflation" in Japan. > > >http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090422/ap_on_bi_ge/us_world_economy > > ======= > > S1000+ > > =======- Hide quoted text - > > - Show quoted text - --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "World-thread" group. To post to this group, send email to world-thread@googlegroups.com To unsubscribe from this group, send email to world-thread+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/world-thread?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
