More ... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CBDPGkW6SCU
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kFi1KlUh5PI On Oct 7, 5:25 pm, Xi Ling <[email protected]> wrote: > Thank you very much for this post. Robert Fisk might pass to the history of > journalism or the history of economics or both for this work: The demise of > the dollar (1) > > Everybody knows that in last G20 meeting in Pittsburg, many pending > agreements were done. Reactions among public opinion can only be compared in > extension and intensity to Michael Jackson family affairs. The independent > editor, Sean O'Grady, told "the markets have spoken, and they can see the > writing is on the wall for the dollar, long-term. Maybe the only surprise in > all this that it has taken the world so long to wake up to the changed > economic realities.". (2) > > I think it is not a big surprise for any of us. We all know that it is on > the agenda since some weeks before the first G20 meeting in Washington as we > talked here in November 2008. (3) > > Western economists and economic authorities seem to be concerned by > deflation, at least that is what they tell. However the big risk is price > inflation. This is going to be the next wave. Much much higher than the > October 2008 crisis. Paradoxically it comes once most countries are exiting > this crisis. Is it just a risk? Some such as India, Australia, Indonesia, > etc. are wisely taking actions (4) because as soon as crisis leave > economies, inflation risks and asset bubbles appear risking to become > hyperinflation. Because we have to combine two effects: US dollar collapse > and higher production costs. > > Regarding US dollar, that risk is much higher than years ago and only > recession delayed that one or two years. US economy is again in the same > circumstances than in 2007, its cause again is excess of > liquidity.Paradoxically we have excess of liquidity amid lack of credit. We > can it see clearly in the chart "mb3_oct_2009" (5) that only in September > the Fed has stabilized the amount of US dollar liquidity, probably to avoid > criticism at the G20 meeting in Pittsbourg. From an historic perspective we > see in "m3b_long_term_oct_2009" (5) that this situation can only be compared > in recent decades with the years before "The Nixon effect" 1970-1971 > although social situation now is worse than in 1970-71 as we can see in > "pain and misery index oct 2009" (5). But also because saving rates in the > 60s were much higher than in the first decade of this century. > > "Gold’s rally to a record shows commodity investors remain concerned that > the U.S. economic recovery will spur inflation" (6). "Gold is a forecaster > of inflation instead of a coincident indicator" (6) > > Unfortunately, for them, propaganda does not change facts. To repeat again > and again that "a strong dollar is good for America" made it go up the first > time. Once people around the glode see no affirmtive actions those words > became just empty words that nobody believe. > > As we can see in the chart trade_budget_deficit_oct_2009, it is not just > trade deficits what spurs fears, it is mostly federal deficits in the US > what panics. We all around the world want to see what pres. Obama is going > to tell about Afghanistan. Will he cut expenses in defense? or will he allow > it to grow as long as US can and want to afford military adventures? > > That simple question might mean how long will the US dollar keeps a role in > the international scenario. Until 2018? or earlier? > > Peace and best wishes. > > Xi > > (1) The demise of the > dollarhttp://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/the-demise-of-the-dol... > > (2)http://seanogrady.independentminds.livejournal.com/14289.html > > (3) Bretton Woods 2. How much can we > expect?http://groups.google.com/group/world-thread/browse_thread/thread/238a... > > Are you attending the obituary in Washington this > weekend?http://groups.google.com/group/world-thread/browse_thread/thread/c798... > > (4) India’s 10-Year Bonds Fall on Rate Outlook, Government > Auctionhttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=adBNrVMtdqX4 > > (5) Key statisticshttp://www.nowandfutures.com/key_stats.html > > (6) Gold Rise to Record Shows Investors Split With > Bankshttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=alO7Gib3l2CY > > m3b_oct_2009.png > 18KViewDownload > > m3b_long_term_oct_2009.png > 15KViewDownload > > pain_misery_index_oct_2009.png > 17KViewDownload > > trade_budget_deficit_oct_2009.png > 14KViewDownload --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "World-thread" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/world-thread?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
