My comment: Good to see that an institution like Sumitomo bank shares it. But I am not sure that US falls to 50 Yens happens in 2010. In fact, I foresee it to happens in 2011 too, after financial troubles come back to US economy not before it happens. I guess the BOJ (Bank of Japan) will sell as many yens in exchange of US dollars as they can in order to keep exchange rate as low as they can. In fact, if USD vs. yen would be above 110, very probably Japan s economy would have exited this short term crisis already. But, shortly, the more Japan exports to China the more Japan will learn that robust currecy brings higher benefits, in particular if you sell high value goods and services.
Regarding US dollar, US economy and their projection that “the U.S. economy will deteriorate into 2011", I cannot agree more. The question is how deep? I also agree that "we can no longer stop the big wave of dollar weakness", in my opinion, the US dollar probably crossed the point of no return last summer or even earlier. If Sumitomo means US dollar as the main reserve currency, it is not a prediction, it is already a fact. If they mean to cease completely as one of the main currencies, I only see that dramatic fall to happen if US economy falls into hyperinflationary recession. They should elaborate further which economic environment they foresee for US economy to support that projection and also which reactions they expect from Europe, Japan, China and other major economies. The Elliot Wave is not a prophesy, it is just a theory that with a rank of error or delay (*) Dollar to Hit 50 Yen, Cease as Reserve, Sumitomo Says http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a_A5nqmw9Dq8 Peace and best wishes. Xi (*) What is the Elliott Wave Principle? http://www.elliottwave.com/introduction/elliott_wave_principle.aspx --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "World-thread" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/world-thread?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
