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Date: Mon, 29 Aug 2005 12:00:06 +0100
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Subject: NetBehaviour Digest, Vol 17, Issue 5
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Today's Topics:
1. Jeremy - (Alan Sondheim)
2. Re: Jeremy - ([EMAIL PROTECTED])
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Message: 1
Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2005 23:50:00 -0400 (EDT)
From: Alan Sondheim <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Subject: [NetBehaviour] Jeremy -
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Jeremy - What is your take on this storm? Any light you can shed on this
greatly appreciated -
Given global warming, this is only the beginning...
- Alan
( URLs/DVDs/CDroms/books/etc. see http://www.asondheim.org/advert.txt -
revised 7/05 )
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Message: 2
Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2005 21:13:18 -0700 (PDT)
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Subject: Re: [NetBehaviour] Jeremy -
To: "NetBehaviour for networked distributed creativity"
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There have been several articles in the Meteorological journal
"weatherwise", and in Scientific American over the last few years on
computer models and studies finding potential "super storms" the likes
of which we mave never seen. The storms are seen more in the gulf
stream off florida and the carolinas as there has been evidence of
warming in the atlantic basin and some
debated projections of increases in the gulf stream by several degrees
within a number of years......5-10 if my memory is correct...but don't
quote me on that......
These storms could (emphasis on "could" as it is primaily mathematical
projections and resulant models) very briefly have peak winds of
.....over 200 miles an hour........
the thing is.....they may actually so disrupt the surface water and
resultant temperature threshold by upwelling that they could then really
weaken as the cold water rising up to replace the disrupted surface water
( here in california this is what occurs along the coast in long term
northerly to northeasterly wind flows that move our warmest surface waters
out off shore....and upwelling results.... this can fluctuate at times as
it did in 98 which was confused with the el nino but was viewed by most
meteorologists as unrelated.......
as far as katrina (trying not to worry so much...hoping my friends got
out .....as have not been able to reach them )
there have been a lot of reports in meteorological and climatalogical
sites and journals that we are actually entering into a long term
hurricane cycle that will last for many years and has not been seen in
decades....
but also........the lack of el nino....and la nina conditions in the last
2 years have also set up less wind shear along the corridor from central
america to africa..............and this always is seen in hurricane
forecasts as a higher number year in the atlantic season.....
the gulf waters appear to be normal........90's to 80's as it is a mostly
protected basin as opposed to open ocean.........
but the season is breaking records since the outset and there already is
another tropical depression.......#13 way....way....above the
norm.....
so as far as global warming..........no direct analog empirical
corrolation seen ......but the jury is still out........it may be a
factor...........
there are already mentions by several meteorologists of a clearly
intensified jet stream........quite possibly part of all the global
extemes in the northern hemisphere this winter including the second
rainiest winter in los angeles history ...........
this does not corrolate directly to hurricanes as they are formed away
from any jet stream influence and actually harmed by it and resultant
shear.....
Jeremy - What is your take on this storm? Any light you can shed on this
greatly appreciated -
Given global warming, this is only the beginning...
- Alan
( URLs/DVDs/CDroms/books/etc. see http://www.asondheim.org/advert.txt -
revised 7/05 )
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