Hi all
The equatorial area of the Atlantic is prone the severe tropo ducting, the D4C 
beacon was heard
for several hours last year in the Caribbean .
I suspect if the path claimed did go it would be a higher signal level, and 
Joe’s conclusions are
correct.
This does demonstrate the need for more trans Atlantic beacons.
I think we have all looked at Hepburns maps and seen the intense tropo 
enhancement in that area,
maybe like me wishing it would be like that over Europe .
IMO that path will go somewhere between the two tropics, just a case of two 
stations being in the
right place at the right time, and deep search or priori wont be needed.


On Thu, 6 Oct 2016 13:35:45 -0400
Joe Taylor <j...@princeton.edu> wrote:

> Hi Dani,
> 
> Dani EA4GPZ wrote:
> > Probably we've all heard about the recent 2m QRA64 transatlantic contact:
> >
> > http://www.arrl.org/news/transatlantic-contact-completed-on-2-meters
> >
> > What I find a bit strange is the signal reports of -36dB and -37dB SNR
> > that they give. Even though QRA64 is quite good, I would expect that
> > it's almost impossible to copy QRA64 signals at -36dB.  
> 
> Evidently you have not seen the messages I posted yesterday to 
> "wsjtgroup".  For completeness they are copied below.
> 
> I believe V51PJ and PY1MHZ have been unaware of the way decodes using a 
> priori information should be used, and consequently they have been 
> fooled by false decodes displayed by whatever unreleased version of 
> WSJT-X they were using.
> 
>       -- 73, Joe, K1JT
> 
> 
> -------- Forwarded Message --------
> Subject: Re: [wsjtgroup] thanks to the software team
> Date: Wed, 5 Oct 2016 09:57:29 -0400
> From: Joe Taylor j...@princeton.edu [wsjtgroup] 
> <wsjtgroup-nore...@yahoogroups.com>
> Reply-To: Joe Taylor <j...@princeton.edu>
> To: n...@mtcmobile.com.na, WSJT Group <wsjtgr...@yahoogroups.com>
> 
> Dear Pieter V51PJ,
> 
> I do not in any way wish to throw cold water on your attempts at 
> trans-Atlantic communication on 2 meters, but I would like to be sure 
> you understand what has been accomplished.
> 
> Evidently you are using an unreleased version of WSJT-X built from the 
> development branch of our open source code.  The QRA64 mode there is 
> functional but not yet yet fully complete, and some details of its use 
> are not yet documented.
> 
> Apparently both lines of decoded text shown in the screen shots I've 
> seen are flagged with the number "8" at the end of line.  This indicator 
> shows how much "a priori" information (if any) has been used as part of 
> the decoding procedure.
> 
> In case it would be useful, here is some (internal) documentation from 
> our source code describing the end-of-line return codes from the QRA64 
> decoder:
> 
> /*
>     Return codes:
>       -16    Failed sanity check
>        -2    Decoded, but CRC check failed
>        -1    No decode
>         0    [?    ?    ?] AP0    (decoding with no a-priori information)
>         1    [CQ   ?    ?] AP27
>         2    [CQ   ?     ] AP42
>         3    [CALL ?    ?] AP29
>         4    [CALL ?     ] AP44
>         5    [CALL CALL ?] AP57
>         6    [?    CALL ?] AP29
>         7    [?    CALL  ] AP44
>         8    [CALL CALL G] AP72
> */
> 
> The information here is rather cryptic, intended for our own programming 
> use.  But in short, the "8" flag means that the content of your 
> transmissions could be determined (and verified with the transmitted 
> message's cyclic redundancy check) only because its plausible content -- 
> in this case, two callsigns and a grid locator -- were known in advance 
> to the receiving software.  (Of course, this known information is always 
> available for a scheduled QSO attempt.)
> 
> For our weak-signal software development we have been using the 
> following somewhat "official" definition of a minimum valid QSO, which 
> appears in the IARU Region 1 VHF Managers Handbook:
> #########################################################################
> 7.1 Minimum Requirement for a valid QSO (Vienna 2007)
> 
> A definition for a valid QSO on VHF and on higher bands is:
> 
> A valid contact is one where both operators during the contact have
> 
> (1) mutually identified each other
> 
> (2) received a report, and
> 
> (3) received a confirmation of the successful identification and the
> reception of the report.
> 
> It is emphasized that the responsibility always lies with the operator
> for the integrity of the contact.
> #########################################################################
> 
> It seems to me that your exchanges with PY1MHZ may have satisfied item 
> #1 in the above list.  Now, you need to persist and exchange some 
> previously *unknown* information, such as a signal report, followed by 
> an acknowledgment -- and then you will have made a truly record-breaking 
> QSO!
> 
> In passing, I should also caution you and others not to take the dB 
> signal reports produced by our existing code too seriously.  At the low 
> end of the S/N range for marginal signals, say below -28 dB for QRA64, 
> the uncertainty of S/N estimates gets very large.
> 
>       -- 73, Joe, K1JT
> 
> -------- Forwarded Message --------
> Subject: Re: [wsjtgroup] thanks to the software team
> Date: Wed, 5 Oct 2016 10:50:11 -0400
> From: Joe Taylor j...@princeton.edu [wsjtgroup] 
> <wsjtgroup-nore...@yahoogroups.com>
> Reply-To: Joe Taylor <j...@princeton.edu>
> To: WSJT Group <wsjtgr...@yahoogroups.com>
> 
> Hi Andy and all,
> 
> G4JNT wrote:
>  > I'm puzzled by the quoted -36 and -37dB S/N reports.  These seem way
>  > too low even for QRA-64 mode.  
> 
> Perhaps this is a good time to remind everyone that estimates of 
> signal-to-noise ratios for very weak signals *always* have an associated 
> (if unexpressed) uncertainty.  When S/N is quoted in dB, this can have 
> important consequences.
> 
> In a stochastic (noise-like) process, experimentally measured values 
> will be scattered around the unknown "true" value; some will be pretty 
> accurate, some too high, and some too low.
> 
> Suppose a signal's true S/N (in the detection bandwidth) is equal to 
> 1.0.  In a series of measurements of that signal, some of the estimated 
> ("measured") values will be close to 1; some will be higher, maybe as 
> high as 2 (or even more), and some will be as low as 0 (or even less). 
> These are *linear* values of S/N: estimated ratios of signal power to 
> noise power.
> 
> When the S/N is expressed in dB -- a logarithmic scale -- you quickly 
> see the problem.  A perfectly plausible estimated S/N=0.1 means that in 
> dB, S/N_dB = -10 dB.  At S/N=0 we get "minus infinity dB".
> 
> Some people think it's a big deal when they see a JT65 decode displayed 
> with an estimated S/N_dB of, say, "-30 dB".  This is nothing more than a 
> statistical fluctuation of noise and an illustration of the nature of 
> logarithms.
> 
>       -- 73, Joe, K1JT
> 
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-- 
-- 
Best wishes /73 
Richard Bown

Email : rich...@g8jvm.com
HTTP  :  http://www.g8jvm.com
nil carborundum a illegitemis
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Maidenhead QRA: IO82SP38, LAT. 52 39.720' N LONG. 2 28.171 W
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OS: Linux Mint 18 x86_64 on a Dell Inspiron N5030 laptop
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