SNAP ANALYSIS-SAfrica ANC, COSATU need other too much to split Thu Aug 26, 2010 10:48am GMT
By Jon Herskovitz JOHANNESBURG Aug 26 (Reuters) - The long alliance between South Africa's ruling African National Congress and organised labour has been put through one of its toughest tests by a massive state workers' strike. The country's largest labour federation COSATU on Thursday said ties were near the breaking point, giving one of its strongest signals yet that it could sever the alliance forged in their decades-long struggle to end apartheid. The following are some implications of the statement and how the country's political system, where the ANC is in governing alliance with unions and the communists, could change. KISS AND MAKE UP? Despite the intense acrimony now, the ANC and COSATU need each too much for political purposes and will eventually patch up their differences to maintain some kind of alliance. This marriage of convenience comes at high cost because it delays what analysts say is a much-needed crack down on unions and introduction of reforms to tackle massive unemployment that has been dragging down the continent's largest economy. Jacob Zuma, who was boosted to the presidency in large part through the help of organised labour, is not seen by analysts as decisive enough to break ties with COSATU. But he might bend, and push them further away from policy decisions. COSATU does not have enough members or money to function as a viable political opposition party and gains far more influence by keeping its alliance with the ANC. But COSATU has proven enormously effective at dragging the economy to near halts through strikes, meaning the ANC faces enormous political risks from ostracising its traditional ally. POLICY CHANGES Two policies pushed by COSATU that will likely be given less prominence are its calls to weaken the rand to boost exports and for the central bank to scrap inflation targeting to give it more flexibility in setting interest rates. Zuma, who is set for a bruising at the ANC's mid-term policy setting meeting next month by various factions angered at his government, would welcome any support. He may cosy up to the anti-union elements in the party. Zuma may reconsider a policy he proposed a few years ago to ease measures that would allow companies to hire temporary workers, which economists have said is vital for allowing greater flexibility in the country's rigid labour market. There are also worries about the agenda of anti-union forces in the ANC who want to keep a system to increase the power of the black majority over the economy that critics said have benefitted the politically connected and raised worries of chronic cronyism. UNEMPLOYMENT Economists said one of the greatest threats to the economy are rigid labour laws -- favoured by unions -- that make it difficult for employers to offer low-wages and flexible employment to the country's poor. These measures could ease the country's alarmingly high official 25 percent unemployment rate. The country's labour laws have been cited as a factor limiting foreign investment. (Editing by Marius Bosch and Alison Williams) © Thomson Reuters 2010 All rights reserved http://af.reuters.com/article/southAfricaNews/idAFLDE67O1L820100826?sp=true -- News is something someone, somewhere doesn’t want to read. The rest is PR.— Claud Cockburn www.kwelaxpress.co.za -- You are subscribed. This footer can help you. Please POST your comments to [email protected] or reply to this message. You can visit the group WEB SITE at http://groups.google.com/group/yclsa-eom-forum for different delivery options, pages, files and membership. To UNSUBSCRIBE, please email [email protected] . You don't have to put anything in the "Subject:" field. You don't have to put anything in the message part. All you have to do is to send an e-mail to this address (repeat): [email protected] .
