Motlanthe: the reluctant challenger
MATUMA LETSOALO, MMANALEDI MATABOGE AND MANDY ROSSOUW JOHANNESBURG, SOUTH
AFRICA - Mar 25 2011 08:38
The ANC veterans' and youth leagues, joined by some leaders in Gauteng, are
pushing hard to persuade Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe to stand for the
presidency of the party at its conference in Mangaung next year.
President Jacob Zuma and party leaders who support him have instructed members
not to discuss issues of leadership, which will be decided at the 2012
conference, but this has not stopped informal lobbying, particularly among
those who are dissatisfied with him. Once an uncritical supporter, the ANC
Youth League has become Zuma's most outspoken critic. However, dissident voices
are also now emerging from the veterans league and the dominant group in the
ANC's Gauteng leadership.
While ANC veterans and youth have been openly critical of Zuma's leadership,
Gauteng has been more guarded, generally avoiding taking public issue with him.
The most recent criticism arises from perceptions that he is using his position
in the ANC and government to benefit his friends and family.
After the party's National General Council in September last year, Zuma
appeared to have re-established his authority while remaining popular among
delegates. The Mangaung conference is unlikely to see a repetition of
Polokwane, where Zuma and Thabo Mbeki were openly in competition, because
Motlanthe has apparently taken a firm view that he will consider standing for
the presidency only if it doesn't involve a bruising battle with Zuma.
"Motlanthe believes as a matter of principle that he won't challenge his
comrade. But he has been made aware by ANC elders that it's not about him, it's
about the organisation," said the ANC source.
"If he refuses, someone else will ascend to the position and it will be a lost
opportunity for him. He cannot then complain that he's been overlooked."
Motlanthe is believed to have told some ANC leaders in Gauteng that he is not
prepared to stand for the position if Zuma wants to be re-elected. ANC
spokesperson Brian Sokutu said the party could not confirm whether the
veterans' league had met Zuma and Motlanthe, or what the meetings had been
about. "But leadership issues will always come up in the run-up to national
elective conferences.
"At the moment the ANC is not preoccupied with leadership change, but local
government elections. When the time is right, we can engage on leadership
issues. They are not on our agenda," said Sokutu.
Contesting Zuma's re-election
An ANCYL leader who did not want to be named said that most of the youth
league's members had shown during the league's National General Council last
year that they did not want Zuma re-elected as ANC president. The youth leader
said that while the league was planning to pass a resolution during its
national conference in June in support of Sports Minister Fikile Mbalula as the
next ANC secretary general "it would not do the same for Zuma".
"We'll take a resolution supporting Mbalula, but nothing on the president's
position. My advice to Zuma would be that he should not stand if he knows
what's good for him. "There is consensus in the youth league that he must go.
He has dismally failed to lead the organisation since his election in 2007. A
good president must inspire confidence in ordinary members. But since he took
over, he has never come up with new ideas. He doesn't understand politics or
economics.
"We also oppose him because he uses his office for personal enrichment. Since
he took over, ANC politics has disappeared. People used to discuss the national
revolution in the ANC, but this does not happen any more. It is difficult to
see how the ANC will grow bigger under his leadership. "Our take is that if
Kgalema is not prepared to stand, we will look for another candidate. The
bottom line is that if Zuma doesn't volunteer to step down, we'll contest him -
even if it means losing the elections for the first time in the ANC."
A source close to a national lobby group for Motlanthe linked to Mbalula's
faction claimed that the majority of provincial secretaries agreed that
Motlanthe was the best candidate for president and Mbalula for secretary
general. "The mood generally is that Zuma is a goner. People have been waiting
for 2011 so that local government elections can pass and the campaigning will
be done openly," the source said.
Leadership vacuum
The lobbying for Motlanthe and Mbalula is said to have been strengthened by an
unforeseen combination of breakaway factions from the group that supported Zuma
in 2007 and that which supported former president Thabo Mbeki. Said an Mbalula
ally with close links to the lobbying: "Some people who supported Thabo Mbeki
in Polokwane are now throwing their support behind Mbalula. They were brought
closer together by the fear of a communist takeover of the ANC."
Despite the growing backing for Motlanthe as the next ANC president, the debate
was "sensitive" said ANC sources, because the party's deputy president "does
not want to talk about it". ANC veterans' league president Sandi Sijake denied
that meetings had taken place between himself, Zuma and Motlanthe, but made it
clear the ANCVL is not happy with the "indecisive" nature of the ANC leadership.
"They must be decisive as leaders. This issue of public spats, people killing
people for positions, must be dealt with -- it's still continuing." Sijake also
criticised the fact that the ANC appeared to give public preference to the
interests of African communities, following the recent spate of race-related
controversies in the party and government.
"The ANC has a wheel with four spokes: for blacks, Indians, whites and
coloureds. They're all the same. But now we're seeing that one spoke is
becoming more important than others," he told the Mail & Guardian. The recent
announcement of a R177-million refurbishment of Zuma's presidential compound is
also a slap in the face of the poor, he said, pointing out: "This house is
ridiculous while most people still sleep in shacks."
An Eastern Cape leader of the veterans' league told the M&G that Zuma was "out
of touch with people" and that this was shown by the chaos surrounding the list
process for local councillors. "Our movement is breaking to pieces because it
is being run by young people who don't care about our past," the leader said.
"The president keeps them as yes men and yes women, but he himself doesn't know
much about what is happening in the organisation."
This left a vacuum for Motlanthe to move into, the source said. "Some are
already watching this space. People are talking about the deputy president. He
seems to listen to people." An Eastern Cape councillor said the province was
abuzz with talk of Motlanthe.
"It is questionable whether we want to reinstate someone like JZ in office. It
is a matter of whether he will step down." Zuma's record in government is the
key reason for his falling support levels, the source said. "He is failing to
be the centrepiece of his administration. We didn't like Mbeki, but at least
there was a master plan, he gave direction. It doesn't look workable for us to
keep pushing for Zuma."
Zuma's 2012 challenges
ANC sources say, however, that Zuma's sights are still set on a second term.
Though he once told The Star that he would serve only one term when he was
elected ANC president in 2007, he gradually changed his tune. "He wants a
second term, but he's scared. He knows that it's difficult this time around.
"The picture has changed nationally, the so-called '2012 class project'
(Motlanthe) is the strongest force in the land."
The sources said that the remaining support for Zuma among the ANC's allies --
the South African Communist Party, Cosatu, the Umkhonto weSizwe Military
Veterans (MKMVA) and Cosas -- carried no weight. "The MKMVA is an empowerment
vehicle, they're not political heavyweights. They don't even have voting powers
(at the national conference)."
In addition to the damage inflicted on Zuma by the alleged influence of the
Gupta family on him and his government, other controversies that have hurt
Zuma's presidency include his fathering of a child out of wedlock with Sonono
Khoza, the daughter of his friend and Orlando Pirates boss Irvin Khoza; the
involvement of his son, Duduzane, in the multimillion-rand AcelorMittal
empowerment deal with the Guptas; and the controversial appointment of his
allies to key positions in government. Zuma's foreign policy, characterised as
submitting to the interests of the imperialist West, has also hurt him in some
ruling party circles.
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