UPDATE ON CLIMATE CHANGE NEGOTIATIONS IN THE RUN-UP TO COP 17/CMP7 National Positions on COP17 in Durban around Nov 2011 • Two track legally binding outcome: - Convention: - legally binding targets for Annex I Parties - ACTIONS for Non Annex I Parties - Legally binding support by developed countries - Legal framework for adaptation - Kyoto Protocol: amendment to annex B to effect 2nd Commitment Period; level of ambition as per science • Time / space for developing countries to transition to low carbon economies, and adapt to unavoidable impacts • Maintaining the integrity of the multilateral process; • Operationalising the Cancun Institutions • Determination on the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol and a comparable emission reduction regime for non-Kyoto Parties; • Affording a central place to adaptation; and • Focusing on finance discussions, particularly the design of the Green Climate Fund. Emerging Scenarios towards COP17 Durban • The first scenario is the KP architecture scenario, where developed country Parties enter a second commitment period, with non-KP countries committing to a future legally binding agreement under the Convention • The second scenario is that of a provisional application of the 2nd commitment period of the KP with comparable obligations for non-KP Parties, followed by atransitional period after the 2015 review when a future regime has been agreed to • A third scenario is that of Durban deciding on a transitional period with effectively no KP-based obligations starting in 2012 and running until the end of the review in 2015. The first scenario is not possible as there is no sufficient time to negotiate another instrument for non-KP Parties, whereas the second and third scenarios are plausible, even though the third scenario would not be desirable for South Africa as it would mean the demise of the Kyoto Protocol and lower possibility of avoiding dangerous climate change
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