Business Day
*Writing is on the wall for Malema* *Sam Mkokeli, Business Day, Johannesburg, 1 March 2012*JULIUS Malema finally got his marching orders from the African National Congress (ANC) yesterday, but not much will change fast.
He still has 14 days to appeal against the sentence --- but not the verdict. He has already appealed against the verdict, when he took the matter to the appeal committee chaired by Cyril Ramaphosa.
That committee upheld the findings of the national disciplinary committee (NDC) on two charges and cleared him on one. It, however, gave Mr Malema a possible lifeline by granting him the right to argue in mitigation of sentence.
That has now been done --- and the NDC, chaired by Derek Hanekom , delivered the hammer blow when it expelled him last night. Last year the NDC gave Mr Malema a five-year sentence but it erred in not giving him a chance to argue in mitigation of sentence.
Mr Ramaphosa corrected that, and after hearing Mr Malema's appeal sent the matter back to Mr Hanekom's committee to hear mitigation or aggravation of sentence. However, as any criminal lawyer would know, an appeal can raise fresh problems, which Mr Malema now knows only too well.
But the matter is not over, although it is clear which way it is going: Mr Malema's future in the ANC is bleak.
However, the status quo will not change that fast. Mr Malema remains president of the league pending the outcome of his appeal.
If that fails, he can ask the ANC's national executive committee to intervene. But that committee is packed with supporters of President Jacob Zuma and leading members who do not want a repeat of the chaos seen in Polokwane at the ANC's last conference in 2007.
While Mr Malema is expected to take advantage of all the political and legal avenues that remain open to him within the ANC, the train to Mangaung will not wait for him.
There have been indications since late last year already that his backers were shifting loyalty. In the league, the ANC and its allied unions, very few people want to be openly associated with him.
That has left him on shaky ground, mainly by himself, bar his economic freedom campaigners in the league and other big names in the ANC whose constituencies are dwarfed by the large numbers who celebrate the cracking of the whip in the ruling party.
Top leaders such as Winnie Madikizela-Mandela, Mathews Phosa and Thandi Modise, Fikile Mbalula and Tokyo Sexwale are associated with Mr Malema.
Those are big names but there are no visible placard-carrying masses declaring their readiness to kill for Mr Malema behind them.
Even the people who share Mr Malema's hostility towards Mr Zuma --- some of whom are in the unions --- are no longer alongside him in this battle, at least publicly. The Congress of South African Trade Unions and its affiliates have instead called for ANC processes to be respected.
Some ANC leaders, although not happy with Mr Zuma's leadership, have realised it would be difficult to remove him. And Mr Malema's abrasive and clumsy style was not going to help either. They have started positioning themselves to benefit from what they see as the roadmap to Mangaung.
Mr Malema's stock is at a low ebb. Is he finished though? Maybe not immediately, but it looks like he will be. The writing is on the wall.
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