Eix my Samwu will go to the table again I foresee danger Kind regards, Ephraim "Thabo"Mathiba Cell:0745857370 Fax:0862164550
On 05 Oct 2014 5:08 PM, "VC" <[email protected]> wrote: > Wiseman Khuzwayo knows nothing about "wriggle room". He made that up. Azar > Jammine is blowing smoke. He knows nothing about the ANC. Hugo Pienaar? Who > is he? > This article is pure propaganda. These are voluntary class enemies. > ------------------------------ > > > > [image: Business Report.jpg] > > > > > > *Public sector pay demand poses threat* > > > > > > *Wiseman Khuzwayo, Business Report, Johannesburg, 5 October 2014 * > > > > South Africa, recently emerged from a bruising five-month-long platinum > industry strike, is heading for what could possibly be an even bigger > showdown on the labour front after public sector unions tabled a demand for > a 15 percent wage hike last week. > > > > This plea, from 16 unions who are representing around 1.3 million state > employees, would be impossible for the government to agree to without > jeopardising the country's finances, and risking the ire of the credit > rating agencies. > > > > It comes at a time when there is clamour for Finance Minister Nhlanhla > Nene to present a credible plan to plug the budget deficit and the current > account deficit when he presents his first Medium Term Budget Policy > Statement on October 22. > > > > If history is any guide, the wage talks will be awash with tension and > acrimony right at the onset as the government has very little wriggle room > to accede to the double-digit increase when the Reserve Bank forecasts > inflation this year to average 6.2 percent. > > > > The last strike by the public sector unions, which shut schools and caused > chaos in hospitals, and was accompanied by widespread intimidation, > continued for three weeks through most of August 2010. > > > > It cost the economy an estimated R1 billion a day. When it was settled, > state spending went up by 1 percent. > > > > Economists said the demand was wide of the mark and even if the unions did > come down, as they usually did, and a settlement was reached it would be at > a huge expense to the economy. > > > > Hugo Pienaar, senior economist at the Bureau for Economic Research at the > University of Stellenbosch, said: "The 15 percent wage demand is simply way > out. It is detrimental to the budget and the rating agencies would > downgrade us further. Long-term interest rates would go up." > > > > He said the GDP expectation had already been scaled down to 1.7 percent in > 2014, so government revenue would be less than budgeted. > > > > Pienaar said the current wage settlement, which expired at the end of > March, was consumer price index plus 1 percent. On that basis, he expected > the final settlement in this round would be 5 percent to 6 percent as > inflation would average just above 6 percent in 2014. > > > > Azar Jammine, chief economist at Econometrix, said the 15 percent demand > was way in excess of projected inflation, raising the possibility of public > sector workers embarking upon a substantial nationwide strike in the first > half of 2015. > > > > He said: "Emboldened by the aggression of industrial action recorded in > the first seven months of this year, the threat of an even bigger strike > among public sector workers must stand as the principal danger to the > economy achieving growth of between 2.5 percent and 3 percent, the range of > most expectations, next year." > > > > Jammine said the government had very little room to manoeuvre, given its > commitment to reducing the budget deficit progressively over the next three > years. > > > > "Giving in to ambitious wage demands would most certainly result in a > rising than falling trend in budget deficits, with the associated > likelihood the ratings agencies would then revise downwards the credit > rating on the South African government bonds. > > > > "In turn, this would increase long-term interest rates, forcing government > to cut back on more vital social expenditure." > > > > He said the most obvious way in which the government could make way for > bigger wage increases than those budgeted for would be to reduce the size > of the public service. > > > > However, in recent years, it had been precisely the increase in employment > in the public service which had provided whatever employment growth has > occurred in the economy. > > > > "Private sector employment has remained fairly static. Therefore, in the > short term, to reverse the rising trend of public sector employment would > aggravate the trend of overall employment and could also exert downward > pressure on economic growth." > > > > Jammine said the more favoured alternatives would be to increase the > productivity of those employed in the public service. Positive real wage > increases could then be justified, without generating higher inflation or > reducing overall economic growth. > > > > "The risk here is that the ruling ANC party would stand to lose votes in > forthcoming elections. Better still, however, would be if government were > able to make inroads into excessive wastage within government spending." > > > > > > *From: > http://www.iol.co.za/business/news/public-sector-pay-demand-poses-threat-1.1760186#.VDFbFPmSyD8 > <http://www.iol.co.za/business/news/public-sector-pay-demand-poses-threat-1.1760186#.VDFbFPmSyD8>* > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > __________ Information from ESET NOD32 Antivirus, version of virus > signature database 10514 (20141005) __________ > > The message was checked by ESET NOD32 Antivirus. > > http://www.eset.com > > -- > -- > You are subscribed. This footer can help you. > Please POST your comments to [email protected] or reply to > this message. > You can visit the group WEB SITE at > http://groups.google.com/group/yclsa-eom-forum for different delivery > options, pages, files and membership. > To UNSUBSCRIBE, please email [email protected] > . You don't have to put anything in the "Subject:" field. You don't have to > put anything in the message part. All you have to do is to send an e-mail > to this address (repeat): [email protected] . > > --- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "YCLSA Discussion Forum" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to [email protected]. > For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout. > -- -- You are subscribed. This footer can help you. Please POST your comments to [email protected] or reply to this message. You can visit the group WEB SITE at http://groups.google.com/group/yclsa-eom-forum for different delivery options, pages, files and membership. To UNSUBSCRIBE, please email [email protected] . You don't have to put anything in the "Subject:" field. You don't have to put anything in the message part. 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