Latin American target for neoliberals Non-Peronist Macri will face difficulties in Argentina Mario Osava, The New Age, Johannesburg, 30 November 2015 Different degrees of economic problems are a common denominator in South American countries where governments that identify as leftist may start to fall, in a shift that began in Argentina and could continue among its neighbours to the north. “It is not possible yet to say whether this is the end of a cycle because the reasons for it are still very present but there is a very complex crisis affecting the governments that I call “distributionist”, which are facing difficulties, especially in Brazil, Argentina and Venezuela,” Prof Tullo Vigevani of the São Paulo State University said. For his part, retired diplomat Marcos Azambuja, a former Brazilian ambassador to Argentina and France, said: “It’s not the end of a cycle in Latin America, but the waning of a group of governments tending towards populism associated with nationalism.” “Left” is a concept that has lost validity, he said, preferring to talk about populist governments, stressing the ones along South America’s Atlantic coast. “The ones along the Pacific coast are more modern,” he said. Argentina is experiencing “the end of a cycle in a completely normal democratic manner, which should be celebrated”, after 12 years of presidency by the Kirchners, he said, referring to the consecutive terms of the late Néstor Kirchner (2003-2007) and his widow and successor Cristina Fernández, who steps down on December 10. Both belonged to the Justicialista – Peronist – party. “But any non-Peronist government will face great difficulties in that country,” Azambuja said. Neither of the last two non-Peronist presidents, Raúl Alfonsín (1983-1989) and Fernando de la Rua (1999-2001), managed to serve out their full terms, they were both forced to resign. That will be a challenge for Mauricio Macri, mayor of Buenos Aires since 2007, who won the elections for president in the November 22 runoff, representing the centre-right opposition Cambiemos (Let’s Change) coalition, made up of his conservative Republican Proposal (PRO) party and the traditional Radical Civic Union (UCR). Helping him win the elections were the division of the Justicialista Party, on the political front, and the economic crisis. But now he will have to deal with the country’s economic woes. A return to warmer ties with the US, trade accords with the European Union and Pacific rim blocs, and greater openness to trade in general form part of Macri’s plans, in contrast to the protectionist tendencies of governments described as leftist, populist, “distributionist” or Bolivarian, depending on the vocabularies used by different ideological currents. But regional organisations like Mercosur, the Union of South American Nations and the Community of Latin American and Caribbbean States will not fall into crisis as a result of the political changes in the region, according to Vigevani. The change in Argentina and the crises in Brazil and Venezuela, which have political as well as economic aspects, point to a probable wave of right-leaning, neoliberal governments in Latin America, that put a higher priority on the economy than on the social policies of their predecessors. In those three countries along the Atlantic coast of South America, governments “did not adequately administer economic policy, leading to low levels of investment, low savings rates, and scarce technological training and failed to develop policies to expand, rather than reduce, consensus. Thus, the capacity to prevent neoliberal advances was decisively reduced,” Vigevani said. Brazil has been suffering from an economic recession since late last year, aggravated by nearly 10% annual inflation and a fiscal deficit that scares off investors. To this was added a corruption scandal involving the state oil giant Petrobras as well as all of the country’s major construction companies and around 50 politicians. In addition, the campaign that led to the reelection of left-leaning President Dilma Rousseff in October last year was marked by an unprecedented degree of violence, with clashes and accusations destroying the chances of dialogue and negotiation. As a result, the contradictions between the government’s election promises and its actual practices became so obvious that they undermined the legitimacy and popularity of the president, who had the approval of less than 10% of the population according to the latest polls and is facing the threat of impeachment. “Economic results are important factors in the shift in favour of conservative candidates,” Vigevani said. “But besides the crises and the recession, there are underlying theoretical problems to be addressed, which the neoliberals don’t have answers to either, and this leads to a balance, even in the case of Argentina. “Distributionism without a capacity for investment, innovation and adjustment of the productive system is not sufficient, although it is necessary,” he said. • Mario Osava is an Inter Press Service correspondent From: http://tnaepaper.co.za/ -- -- You are subscribed. This footer can help you. 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